By the numbers: How lopsided will Michigan make it against Hawai'i?
Michigan Wolverines football is a 51.5-point home favorite over Hawai’i Saturday night — the largest point spread in U-M program history, per MLive. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-2 with losses in Honolulu to Vanderbilt (63-10) and Western Kentucky (49-17) by a combined score of 112-27.
Michigan will start sophomore J.J. McCarthy for the first time, and with the Wolverines in the midst of a quarterback competition, they may pour it on the Rainbow Warriors. Perhaps that was a reason why, soon after the line opened at 46.5, bettors pushed Michigan’s projected advantage up 5 points.
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Hawai’i has been a mess in the first 2 weeks. It allowed 404 rushing yards, a whopping 9.2 yards per carry, against the Commodores. Western Kentucky had less success on the ground (141 yards), but the Rainbow Warriors threw 5 interceptions, including one pick-six. Ball security was a problem in both outings, with Hawai’i fumbling 4 times and losing 2 in the opener.
At this point in the season, the Rainbow Warriors are ranked No. 130 out of 131 teams in The Athletic‘s 1-131 rankings. They’re right near the bottom along with Navy (128) and Charlotte (131), teams that have also been good in the past but are currently struggling.
“Navy lost 14-7 to FCS Delaware with 3 fumbles and 3 failed fourth-down attempts,” The Athletic‘s Chris Vannini wrote. “Hawai’i got blown out by Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky at home. And FCS William & Mary ran away from Charlotte with a 41-24 win (after a 43-13 49ers loss to FAU in Week 0).
“These programs appear to be in a bad place on the field right now, all for different reasons, and past success can’t keep them out of the basement.”
Michigan’s Week 2 opponent may not turn things around this year, but it’s clearly a rebuild under first-year head coach Timmy Chang. The Rainbow Warriors were 11-11 in two seasons under former head man Todd Graham, but he was let go due to concerning off-field allegations, and 20 players left the program through the transfer portal after his departure.
Chang was part of the program’s resurgence as a quarterback from 2000-04, when he threw for 17,072 yards and 117 touchdowns with 80 interceptions. In nine seasons under Chang’s head coach, June Jones, the Rainbow Warriors posted winning records seven times, including six 9-plus win campaigns.
Given the state of Hawai’i’s program, Michigan may well win by one of its biggest point margins under eighth-year head coach Jim Harbaugh.
The last time the two teams met — back in 2016 — Michigan won in blowout fashion, 63-3. Given the 51.5-point spread, the Wolverines would have to score 52-plus to cover. Below, we’ve rounded up the nine games in which Harbaugh-coached U-M teams have surpassed the 50-point barrier.
| Date | Opponent | Score |
| Sept. 3, 2016 | Hawai’i | 63-3 |
| Sept. 10, 2016 | UCF | 51-14 |
| Oct. 8, 2016 | Rutgers | 78-0 |
| Nov. 5, 2016 | Maryland | 59-3 |
| Sept. 22, 2018 | Nebraska | 56-10 |
| Sept. 28, 2019 | Rutgers | 52-0 |
| Sept. 18, 2021 | Northern Illinois | 63-10 |
| Nov. 20, 2021 | Maryland | 59-18 |
| Sept. 3, 2022 | Colorado State | 51-7 |
With Michigan beating Colorado State, 51-7, last weekend, the Wolverines have the chance to surpass 100 points scored in the first 2 weeks of the season for just the 12th time in school history.
Michigan, Hawai’i betting trends
As mentioned, Michigan is a 51.5-point favorite, with the over/under for total points set at 67. Here are some betting trends for both teams:
• Michigan has been stellar against the spread (ATS) over the last 2 seasons, going 12-3 over its last 15 games, including covering the 31-point spread versus CSU last weekend.
• The under 60.5 points hit for Michigan and CSU last weekend. The Wolverines did their part offensively, but the Rams were held to just 7 points. The total has gone under in 5 of Michigan’s last 6 home clashes.
• Hawai’i failed to cover the spread in both of its games so far. It was only a 9-point underdog to Vanderbilt and a 16.5-point underdog to Western Kentucky.
• The over 54.5 points hit in the Rainbow Warriors’ tilt with Vanderbilt, and the under 67.5 points came to fruition last weekend against the Hilltoppers. The total has gone under in 10 of Hawai’i’s last 13 road tilts.
• Hawai’i is 2-5 both ATS and straight up in its last 7 road games.
By the numbers: Michigan vs. Hawai’i
1 Michigan player — junior wide receiver Roman Wilson — is from Hawai’i (Honolulu). He caught 2 passes for 65 yards with a 61-yard touchdown last week.
1-19 is Hawai’i’s road record against nationally ranked teams (Michigan slots No. 4 in the AP poll). Hawai’i’s lone road win over a ranked team was at No. 22 Fresno State in 2008. The Rainbow Warriors are 11-46 when facing such opponents in history.
3-0 Is Michigan’s series lead against Hawai’i, with 2 games having been played in Honolulu and the 2016 tilt taking place at The Big House. U-M beat the Rainbow Warriors, 27-10, in 1986, when Harbaugh was the quarterback, and 48-17 in 1998. Those two road contests were played after U-M played rival Ohio State.
12th Night game in Michigan Stadium history will take place Saturday night. The Wolverines are 9-2 in such contests (9-1 with fans in the stands). This will be the 69th night game in the Wolverines’ history — they have a 40-28 record.
17-0 Is Michigan’s record in non-conference home games under Harbaugh.
41 Teams in the country have allowed 1 or fewer touchdowns after Week 1, including Michigan, which allowed a 34-yard touchdown pass against CSU. The Rams mustered up only 3.7 yards per play — that mark ranks 25th nationally in yards allowed per play for U-M’s defense.
127th Is where Hawai’i ranks nationally in rushing defense (275.2 yards yielded per game). The Rainbow Warriors are tied for 125th in turnover margin per game (-3). They’ve committed 8 turnovers, the most in the country so far this season (only 16 teams, including Hawai’i, have already played 2 games).
1987 Is when Hawai’i athletic director David Matlin graduated from the University of Michigan.
2009 Was the last time Hawai’i beat a Power Five team away from Honolulu (versus Washington State in Seattle). The Rainbow Warriors have lost 14 consecutive road or neutral-site games against Power Five Opponents.
8,920 Miles round trip is what Hawai’i will travel for its matchup against Michigan. The Rainbow Warriors are set to make six trips to the mainland this season.
