What Michigan's CFP title run would have looked like in new 12-team format

The Michigan Wolverines carry the torch as the last team to win the four-team College Football Playoff field before the postseason expands to 12 teams in 2024. The new format will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams by the CFP selection committee.

From there, the top four seeds get a bye to the quarterfinals, while seeds five through 12 will be on campus with the higher seed hosting.

The new system adds 1-2 more games to whoever wins it all, making it a battle for attrition that goes deeper into January. But how would Michigan’s path have been altered by the new system being in place a year earlier?

Here is a look at how the field would have looked this year, and how it may have changed the teams that met for a national title using SP+ rankings as a predictor. We used the CFP rankings that were released after conference title weekend to seed all 12 teams.

The bracket

First round byes

This year’s four-team playoff field would all be out of action the first week while the other teams play on campus sites. No. 1 Michigan would play the winner of No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon, No. 2 Washington would play the winner of No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas would play either No. 11 Ole Miss or No. 6 Georgia, and No. 4 Alabama would have played either No. 12 Oklahoma or No. 5 Florida State.

First round matchups

No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon

A lot of people think that had Oregon found a way to win one of its games against Washington this year, it could have been the team to beat for a title. Instead, the Huskies swept the series and ended the push toward the four-team field. But SP+ had Oregon at the top of CFB’s next tier of teams after Michigan and Georgia, coming in at No. 3 in the country. Missouri ranked 10th and would have had to travel to the Pacific Northwest for a game in one of the nation’s toughest environments. For this exercise, Oregon advances.

No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 5 Florida State

Florida State was screwed out of the four-team field due to people in suits projecting how a team might fare without its starting quarterback. It still had one of the best defenses in the country and would have hosted an Oklahoma team that faded as the season went on. SP+ had FSU as the No. 9 team in the country, while Oklahoma was 17th. Florida State advances.

No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia

This was the first of two rematches to appear from the regular season in this scenario. Georgia beat the brakes off Ole Miss by a score of 52-17 in November, and it’s hard to imagine a different result. SP+ had Georgia at No. 2 slightly behind Michigan, while Ole Miss finished 12th. The Bulldogs move on in pursuit of a third-straight title.

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State

The Buckeyes won a 20-12 rock fight earlier in the year in Columbus and would return home for a showdown with the Nittany Lions. Ohio State and Penn State finished as SP+ No. 4 and No. 5 teams, respectively, so this could have been a coin-flip game. But OSU had better QB play and a functioning offense. The Buckeyes move forward.

Second round matchups

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Michigan

Short of taking on Georgia, this could have been Michigan’s toughest draw in a potential 12-team field. Oregon had the nation’s most efficient offense and a defense that ranked 16th, but the Wolverine defense was unlike anything they saw all season. This would have been a dogfight, but we give the national champs the nod, obviously.

No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 4 Alabama

Oh, how we wish this game could have played out to determine a playoff spot. This was the debate that sent the nation into a frenzy. Ultimately, Alabama’s defense against a backup quarterback would have been a fairly lopsided matchup given the way the two teams were playing at the end of the year. The Crimson Tide finished slightly ahead of FSU in SP+ at No. 7.

No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas

SP+ loved Georgia almost as much as it did Michigan, so it would not have been surprising to see them roll in this spot. But this is another potential matchup that would have been fun to watch, especially after Texas beat Alabama early in the year. Georgia moves on.

No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Washington

Despite another loss to Michigan, that Ohio State defense was extremely good, and might have given Washington the same types of problems that Michigan did. It would have been a fun game, but we could have seen another quarterfinal “upset” here, with Washington finishing 13th in SP+.

Semifinal matchups

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan

We saw this game play out anyway, which was a dogfight that was settled in overtime in the Rose Bowl. Had Michigan played better, it may not have been that close. But they had it when it counted the most. The Wolverines move on to Houston.

No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Georgia

A rematch of last year’s CFP semifinal would have been great television, but this is where the Buckeyes’ attempted run at redemption may have come to an end. A game that featured dueling playmakers of Georgia TE Brock Bowers and OSU wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. could have made for classic television.

Does Michigan still win a national title?

No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 1 Michigan

We will never know how things would have fared had these two teams had a rematch from the 2021 Orange Bowl. But SP+ had Michigan finishing with a rating of 31.3, while Georgia finished with 31.2. It is about as close as it could be. The margin of error was razor thin in the four-team CFP, which Georgia missed after losing in the SEC title game to Alabama. Bulldog fans might maintain they would have beaten Michigan, but it’s all hypothetical, and we control the results.

So why change history if we do not have to? Michigan closes it out and wins it all.