Penn State-Indiana Predictions: Lions travel to Bloomington as two-touchdown favorites

Following Tuesday night’s release of the College Football Playoff Poll, it’s clear that Penn State still has a lot to play for. Sure, they’re not going to crack the top four this year, but after back-to-back subpar seasons, the Nittany Lions are on pace to make a New Year’s Six Bowl for the first time since 2019. When you also consider that many predicted an eight- or nine-win season, 2022 is shaping up to be a pretty good bounce-back season for James Franklin and his program.

But if they’re going to do so, Penn State can’t play down to their competition in the final four weeks. The Lions have done that multiple times in recent years, although this week’s opponent, Indiana, hasn’t been one of those teams to trip up PSU when it’s having a special season.

Overall, Penn State is 23-2 against the Hoosiers all-time, and although they did lose their last trip to Bloomington in 2020, this year’s team is playing on a much different level compared to the one two years ago. Indiana’s other win came in 2013. We all know where the program stood then.

So how will Saturday’s game, which is set for a 3:30 pm ET kickoff on ABC, shake out? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 8-0; Last Game: 38-27 OSU)

Seeing Penn State’s performance against Ohio State makes the Nittany Lions attractive this week. Then comparing that effort to Indiana’s struggles this season, the Hoosiers riding a five-game slide coming into Saturday’s matchup, and Penn State is that much more appealing to not just win, but win easy.

I’m not buying it.

I think Penn State will improve to 7-2 on the season and shed the baggage of facing two top five teams in three weeks. But it won’t be without having to grind it out against an Indiana program that always makes its opponents work for wins. Ultimately, the Nittany Lions’ explosive playmaking should be able to shine through eventually, even if it takes a quarter to get there, and the defense shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping the Hoosiers in check. 

Penn State: 28

Indiana: 10

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 8-0; Last Game: 31-20 OSU)

I’m impressed with Tom Allen’s defense every season because he gets more out of less than most defensive coaches. The architecture of his defense is creative and difficult to read pre-snap, and he challenges his secondary defenders to play above a college-level threshold from a mental standpoint.

However, things aren’t going so well this season, and Indiana’s coverage unit has taken a step back, despite most of the faces being the same. According to PFF, they’ve missed 106 tackles this year, tied for the most in the Big Ten. When you add those factors together, the defense begins to fall apart. On the other hand, Penn State has found a rhythm offensively, and for the first time since week three, I’m going to trust that side of the ball fully.

The Indiana offense is a paint-by-numbers spread unit with an up-tempo twist. Everything they do is built on deceptions like RPO and Read Option. However, Manny Diaz’s defense should handle this unit as they did many of the season’s early opponents.

Penn State: 45

Indiana: 17

Sean Fitz (Season: 8-0; Last Game: 41-28 OSU)

The focus for Penn State this week, of course, is on Indiana. But in a broader sense, it’s about bucking the trend of following a loss to Ohio State with a dud the next week. Indiana doesn’t present a ton of challenges for the Nittany Lions from a matchup perspective, and that’s even more true now that the Hoosiers’ leading receiver, Cam Camper, is out for the season. Penn State should have plenty of advantages across the board. 

Tom Allen looked to be turning a corner in Bloomington just a few years ago, but that seemed to dissipate quickly. Indiana has the Big Ten’s 11th-ranked offense and the worst defense in the conference. The Hoosiers struggle to run the ball and are now without their top receiver on offense, and they struggle to stop both the run and the pass on defense. That’s not ideal. Penn State, even with a hangover, should be able to put some points up this weekend. Penn State’s defensive line should be able to generate more pressure this weekend and it could trickle down into turnovers for the Nittany Lions’ defense.

Penn State: 41

Indiana: 14

Matt Herb (Season: 8-0; Last Game: 38-20 OSU)

On offense, Indiana has had trouble running the ball. On defense, it’s had trouble stopping opponents from running. That’s usually a formula for disaster, and sure enough, the Hoosiers haven’t won a game since beating Western Kentucky on Sept. 17.

Even so, I could see Penn State struggling to put this one away. Maybe it’s the series history that’s giving me pause. The Nittany Lions have lost two of their past eight games in Bloomington, and of their six wins in that span, only one was by more than a touchdown. Maybe it’s that Indiana stubbornly hung in there with Michigan last month until eventually running out of steam in the third quarter. Maybe it’s that we don’t have any way of knowing how the Lions are going to respond following a heartbreaking fourth-quarter collapse against Ohio State last weekend.

PSU has already shown some resilience this year, rebounding from the drubbing it absorbed at Michigan and posting a lopsided win over Minnesota the following week. I can imagine the Lions rebounding from the Ohio State loss, too, but maybe not as decisively as they did in their White Out win over the Gophers.

Penn State: 34

Indiana: 24

Greg Pickel (Season: 7-1; Last Game: 48-24 OSU)

This might be the hardest prediction to make of the season. And, that’s not because we have any doubts about who will win the game. Penn State is the better team and a deserving 13.5-point favorite. What’s concerning, however, is the major injury question marks.

Will the Lions be down three starters — Caedan Wallace, Olu Fashanu, and Landon Tengwall — up front? It can’t be ruled out. Then, on the other side, the Hoosiers lost top receiver Cam Camper to a torn ACL last week. How will that change their offense? We’ll see, but it hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. But, if Penn State has protection issues, it might not, either. It’s hard to envision a sleepy performance after a loss. However, a massive blowout doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

Penn State: 34

Indiana: 20

Ryan Snyder (Season: 7-1; Last Game: 38-24 OSU)

Tom Allen looked to be building something in recent years, but the Hoosiers have really taken a step back in 2022. Their play at quarterback (surprise!) has been a major reason why, as junior Connor Bazelak just hasn’t played well. So far this season he has more turnover-worthy throws (14) than big-time throws (9), according to PFF. He also has just a 54.6 completion rate and nine interceptions on the season. Only Nebraska’s Casey Thompson has thrown more picks in the Big Ten.

But it’s not just on him. Only Iowa’s Spencer Petras has been sacked more than Bazelak, and his receivers have recorded 18 drops so far this season, which is the most in the conference. Nothing is going all that well.

Penn State has been known to play up and down to its competition, but I think we’ll see this team respond with an all-around solid performance Saturday. I could see Indiana’s defense playing with some momentum early, but I expect a few chunk plays to allow Penn State to pull away in the second and third quarters.

Penn State: 31

Indiana: 14