Penn State-Northwestern Predictions: How college football experts & data systems are picking Lions-Wildcats
Penn State finds itself a heavy favorite heading into Saturday’s Big Ten home opener against Northwestern. The spread opened 25.5 earlier this week and climbed all the way to Penn State -27 on Tuesday. Once the weather forecast started to become more clear – remnants of Hurricane Ian will be in Pennsylvania all afternoon – it dropped down two points. Most books have the spread at 25 currently.
To get a better feel for how the game will play out, we put together predictions from a variety of outlets.
Computer Model Picks for Penn State-Northwestern
ESPN’s Bill Connelly likes Penn State up to -30 in this game. His SP+ model predicts a final score of 39-9.
CBS Sportsline believes the Wildcats can stick within the spread. That model predicts the Lions winning by 22, with a final score of 36-14.
One other notable model is Austin Mock’s XMov model from The Athletic. This model says that the spread of 25 is dead on, predicting a spread of 24.8.
Lions-Wildcats Predictions from a National Perspective
Ethan Stone from Saturday Tradition believes Penn State will win this one easily, predicting a final score of 49-7.
“This is not a game Penn State can ever see close beyond the first 5 minutes,” Stone wrote. “Northwestern has struggled and should continue to struggle Saturday at Beaver Stadium. Look for some action from Drew Allar at some point in the second half.”
Gabe Salgado from Athlon Sports thinks the opposite, giving Northwestern an opportunity to stick around in this one. His final score is PSU 30-17.
“Penn State has dominated its series with Northwestern, and there’s not much reason to expect anything to change on Saturday,” Salgado wrote. “The Wildcats are struggling on both sides of the ball, while the Nittany Lions have shown good balance. Even if the defense struggles a bit, Penn State has too many weapons for Northwestern to overcome.”
Pete Fiutak from College Football News also believes the game will fall somewhere around the spread. He has a final score of PSU 40-16.
“Can Penn State keep doing what it’s doing? One turnover. That’s all it has given up so far with a lonely interception in the opener against Purdue,” Fiutak wrote. “The penalties haven’t been a problem, the team isn’t making big mistakes, and as long as that holds form, all will be fine.
“Northwestern will keep pressing, but it’s at its best when it can control the game with a lead. The team is way overdue for a great performance, but that’s not happening here. It won’t be a total wipeout – Northwestern will keep throwing – but there won’t be a ton of drama.”
Local Beat Writers Picks for Penn State-Northwestern
Mark Wogenrich from Sports Illustrated’s All Penn State also has Northwestern covering with a final score of 31-10 Nittany Lions.
Jon Sauber from the Centre Daily Times predicts that the Lions will reach the 40-point threshold. He has Wildcats also scoring multiple times, with the game finishing 42-17.
At PennLive, all five reporters believe that Penn State will get the win. Bob Flounders, John McGonigal, and Joe Hermitt all have Penn State covering the spread, while David Jones and Dustin Hockensmith believe Northwestern will stick within that number.
If you missed our staff predictions at Blue White Illustrated, they’re listed below.
Nate Bauer: 38-10 PSU
Sean Fitz: 35-10 PSU
Greg Pickel: 42-10 PSU
Thomas Frank Carr: 35-10 PSU
Matt Herb: 31-14 PSU
Ryan Snyder: 38-13 PSU
