Penn State remains strong, on paper, in updated SP+ rankings
Penn State football is in familiar territory this May. With the release of Bill Connelly’s updated SP+ preseason projections for the 2022 season this week at ESPN, the Nittany Lions are expected to be good this season.
How good?
According to Connelly’s advanced metrics, Penn State checks in at No. 13 on the rankings of his projected SP+ output. That’s an improvement of three spots from the program’s February ranking, which came in at No. 16.
Penn State’s overall number is 16.3, with the offense posting a 30.3 (53rd nationally) and the defense a 14.0 (fifth).
Described as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” the power rankings are simply an on-paper evaluation of a program’s strengths and weaknesses ahead of the season. Collated with the same metrics evaluating every other program in college football, taking into account returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history, the data spits out a number to indicate predictive strength.
From Connelly’s description of the index:
“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.
“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. It is a look at how teams should likely perform moving forward.”
Looking back
To understand how Penn State can check in at No. 13 in the SP+ May update coming off a 7-6 campaign in 2021, last year’s final rankings are a good place to start.
Beginning the year at No. 10 in the SP+ rankings, Penn State had a 21.2 overall rating, with a 36.4 on offense (22nd) and a 15.2 on defense (7th). Through the course of a 5-0 start, with wins over Wisconsin (preseason No. 6) and Auburn (preseason No. 23), not much changed, though.
Ahead of Penn State’s No. 3 vs. No. 4 showdown at Iowa, the Nittany Lions’ overall rating was improved to just 21.6, with its offense (35.3/No. 23) and defense (13.8/No. 5) changing only slightly. After the 23-20 loss at Kinnick, the changes to Penn State’s SP+ metrics mirrored what was taking place on the field.
The Lions’ defense remained in a powerful position as the struggling offense underwent a free fall. The unit dropped from 23 to 38th, to 49th two weeks later, down to 66th by the middle of November, and ultimately, to No. 72 by the conclusion of the season.
Unable to crack 28 points scored by the Penn State offense against any of its 11 Power Five opponents for the season, the Nittany Lions exited with a 10-point whimper in their loss to Arkansas in the Outback Bowl.
The updated SP+ rankings haven’t forgotten about the performance, either. With a projected offensive number of 30.3, the Nittany Lions have work to do with its returning performers and a mix of newcomers to prove themselves. As it stands, the offensive predictive ranking is second-worst only to Wisconsin (29.5/No. 58) among teams ranked in the Top 25 of the power index.
Penn State team strength, projection
The offsetting determinant is, of course, Penn State’s defense.
Finishing the 2021 season with a defensive SP+ number of 14.6, the Nittany Lions were sixth nationally on that side of the ball. Now, despite the losses of Jaquan Brisker, Arnold Ebiketie, Brandon Smith, Tariq Castro-Fields, and Jesse Luketa to the NFL Draft, the SP+ has Penn State’s defense a notch better at 14.0 with a No. 5 ranking nationally.
While Penn State might again find itself as one of the nation’s strongest teams on paper ahead of the 2022 season, the Nittany Lions aren’t alone.
Atop the latest SP+ update, Ohio State has the No. 1 rank overall with the No. 1 offense (47.9) and No. 13 defense (18.0). Not far behind, Michigan checks in at No. 4 (6th offense/20th defense), with Michigan State (16th), Minnesota (21st), and Auburn (22nd) all among the top 25 for predictive strength.
