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Purdue Football Number Crunching: Week 8

Karpick_headshot500x500by:Alan Karpick•11/02/22•

AlanKarpick

On3 image
Charlie Jones (Chad Krockover photo)

Here is our eclectic look at the Purdue football numbers for this week.

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Note: Griffin Herdegen was the co-author.

.439

Charlie Jones has put up 72 receptions for 840 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Those numbers are impressive no matter what you compare them against, but of particular note is that the remainder of Purdue’s WR corps has combined for 92 receptions, 916 yards and four touchdowns. Jones almost beats out every other WR combined for yards, and more than doubles up their touchdown count on the year.

4-1

Under Jeff Brohm, Purdue is 4-1 against Iowa, with the only loss being a one-score defeat in Iowa City in 2019. Perhaps surprisingly, this is tied for the best record against any Big Ten West opponent under Brohm’s tenure – they’re also 4-1 against Illinois. The team that he’s performed worst against is obviously Wisconsin, who Brohm holds an 0-5 record against – but he also has a losing record against Northwestern (2-3) and Minnesota (2-4) in his tenure.

#3

The Boilers are third in the nation in completions per game (behind Air Raid programs Mississippi State and Texas Tech) while sitting in the bottom 35 (and fourth-least in the Big Ten) in rushing attempts per game. The Boilers run 77.8 plays per game, fifth in the country and second among Power 5 teams.

3 and 5

The Hawkeyes have scored 10 offensive touchdowns all seasons, one shy of Charlie Jones’ numbers alone. Starting QB Spencer Petras is 114/205 for 1209 yards, three touchdowns and five picks on the year. The Hawkeyes are third-from-last in the Power 5 with 16.4 points scored per game, and 129th (out of 131) in the FBS in offensive yards per game at 248.6. For reference, Purdue averages 444.6 yards per game, putting them just outside the top 30.

2 and 3

On the other side of the coin, Iowa’s defense is elite, fifth in the nation in both yards and points per game allowed. Iowa has one of the best run defenses in the nation, allowing 2.6 yards per carry on the year, second in the country. The Hawkeyes have two safeties and three defensive touchdowns this season – meaning they’ve scored more points on defense than they have through passing the ball this year.

10 and 9

The Boilers only need to get one more win in four tries this November to secure a bowl bid. Under Brohm, Purdue is 10-9 in November, mainly dragged down by a 5-game November losing streak that lasted from the end of November 2019 throughout all of 2020, broken by last year’s upset win over Michigan State. While his 10-9 record isn’t lighting the world on fire, it’s certainly better than what was on offer before – Darrell Hazell never won a game in November, going 0-16 in the month throughout his tenure.

+4

The Boilers are four-point favorites against Iowa this weekend. Purdue isn’t favored over Iowa often, this being only the seventh time in the past 25 years. On those six other occasions, Purdue is 5-1, only losing in 2005. Overall, in the Boilers’ past 30 games as a one-score favorite or less, Purdue is 16-14, 8-7 under Brohm. Most recently, the Boilers were a 2.5-point favorite at home against Minnesota last year, a game they lost 20-13.

+/- 41.5

Don’t expect too many points to be scored in this weekend’s matchup against the Hawkeyes. The over/under on the game is 41.5 (implying an expected score of ~23-19 Purdue). In their past 20 meetings, the over has hit less than half of the time. The total of 41.5 is the lowest for a Purdue game since last year’s matchup against Wisconsin (which had an over/under of 41 points). That game ended in a score of Wisconsin, 30-13.

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