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ESPN's FPI predicts South Carolina football record

On3 imageby:Wes Mitchell06/06/24

Wes Mitchell

ESPN has officially updated its 2024 Football Power Index, its rating and projection metric that produces predicted records for every team in the country including South Carolina.

This year’s FPI, which updates on the fly as games are won and lost during the regular season, has the Gamecocks splitting their season right down the middle with a 6-6 record.

It has South Carolina as the No. 33 team in the country.

As if there was any need for further evidence of how big the Week 2 matchup with Kentucky will be, the FPI rates the Gamecocks and Wildcats with identical 6.2 ratings with 6.0-6.0 records for both. While the tiebreaker is not apparent, Kentucky is ranked one spot behind Carolina as the No. 34 team.

That puts the Gamecocks 12th among the 16 SEC teams.

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According to ESPN, “the FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.”

In other words, South Carolina’s 6.2 rating means the Gamecocks would be a 6.2-point favorite over an average FBS football team on a neutral field.

“Those numbers are then used to simulate the season schedule 20,000 times,” ESPN says. “Including the conference championships and the CFP bracket, simulating the selection process using an algorithm that mimics the way the committee typically picks teams.”

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The Gamecocks, as always, face one of the more difficult schedules in the country but surprisingly, even with the addition of two new powerhouses to the SEC (one of which is on the schedule), South Carolina doesn’t have one of the top 10 toughest schedules, at least according to the FPI.

The Gamecocks instead face the No. 17 schedule in the country.

South Carolina drops Georgia, Florida and Tennessee from its slate for the first time since it joined the SEC but adds road games with Alabama and Oklahoma, the two best teams it plays according to this metric.

Vanderbilt is the worst SEC opponent Carolina faces while Akron is the worst FBS opponent, according to the FPI.

2024 Schedule – FPI Rating (Ranking)

Old Dominion – -9.1 (108)
@Kentucky – 6.3 (34)
LSU – 14.6 (13)
Akron – -14 (128)
Ole Miss – 12 (16)
@ Alabama – 21.9 (5)
@ Oklahoma – 17.2 (8)
Texas A&M – 13.6 (14)
@ Vanderbilt – -2.2 (76)
Missouri – 15.4 (10)
Wofford – FCS
@ Clemson – 12.2 (15)

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