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On3's guide to top NFL Draft picks as recruits

charles power hsby:Charles Power•05/02/24•

CharlesPower

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Studying the backgrounds and development of early round NFL Draft picks is key to On3’s methodology for ranking high school football prospects.

Early round picks comprise a large swath of the sports’ best and most talented players in both college and the NFL. Along with high school recruiting rankings, the NFL Draft is the other point in players’ career where they are quantitatively sorted among their peers.

Using the NFL Draft as a gauge for accuracy in ranking high school prospects requires annual study of up-to-date positional, geographical and developmental trends among highly-drafted players. As a result, On3 closely inspects the high school backgrounds and developmental tracks of top NFL Draft picks every year.

This study informs positional critical factors that are used in On3’s prospect evaluation process. Positional rankings are the starting point of the rankings process for On3. This is due to the apples-to-apples nature of first comparing prospects within the same position group.

Aside from quarterback (focused on first-rounders) we primarily study prospects that are taken in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.

The statistics and other data used primarily comes from the senior year of high school. If a prospect missed the majority of the senior season, we default to junior year statistics. We also err on the conservative side when tallying multi-sport and multi-positional participation. Those figures are likely even higher than represented.

With that said, here are updated data and findings to show what top draft picks at each position looked like as high school prospects.

Quarterback

The sample: The last 33 first-round quarterbacks (2015-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-2.9, 196.2 pounds, 9.64-inch hand

Height thresholds: 3/33 under 6-foot-1, 7/33 over 6-foot-4, 0/33 over 6-foot-6

Weight thresholds: 0/33 over 225 pounds, 0/33 under 175 pounds

Hand thresholds: 1/33 under 9 inches (Kenny Pickett), 11/33 10 inches or larger

Average statistics (out of 29): 2,928 passing yards, 35.2 passing TD, 4.7 INT, 620 rushing yards, 9.8 rushing TD
3.9 total TD per game, 0.4 INT per game

Statistical thresholds:

  • 6/32 yards per attempt under 9.0
  • 18/32 yards per attempt over 10.0
  • 4/33 under 200 rushing yards, 0/33 with negative rushing yards
  • 17/33 rushed for double-digit TD (including 6 of last 10)

Multi-sport:

  • 28/33 played multiple sports
  • 16/33 played basketball, 11 played baseball, 4 ran track, 1 played tennis, 1 played hockey

Average athletic testing (out of 19): 4.79 second 40-yard dash, 4.33 second shuttle, 32.7-inch vertical

Geographic dispersion: California (7), Florida (4), Georgia (3), Texas (3), Alabama (2), Hawaii (2), North Carolina (2), Ohio (2)

Additional notes: 17/33 were early enrollees (13 of last 15), 5/33 played defense (all were picked in the top ten).

Running Back

The sample: The last 59 running backs drafted rounds 1-3 (2016-2024)

Average size: 5-foot-11.1, 202.4 pounds

Height thresholds: 4/59 under 5-foot-9, 4/59 over 6-foot-1

Weight thresholds: 2/59 over 230 pounds (Derrick Henry, AJ Dillon), 1/59 under 180 pounds (Tyjae Spears)

Average statistics (out of 58): 1,966 rushing yards, 27.9 rushing TD, 10.55 yards per carry

Statistical thresholds: 3/59 yards per carry were under 7.5, 2/59 under 10 rushing TD (injured)

Average 100 meter time (out of 40): 11.01 seconds (22/40 under 11.0 seconds, 5/40 over 11.3 seconds)

Average athletic testing (out of 29): 4.55 second 40-yard dash, 4.22 second shuttle, 35.4 inch vertical

Geographic dispersion: Florida (7), Georgia (7), California (6), Louisiana (6), Texas (6), Pennsylvania (4), Ohio (3),

Additional notes: 55/59 played running back, 3 of those 4 played quarterback and all ran for over 2,000 yards.

Wide Receiver

The sample: The last 100 wide receivers drafted rounds 1-3 (2018-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-0.6, 183.5 pounds, 31.7-inch arm

Height thresholds: 10/100 under 5-foot-10, 2/100 over 6-foot-4 (Nico Collins, Chase Claypool)

Weight thresholds: 2/100 over 220 pounds (Treylon Burks, Jalen Hurd), 8/100 over 210 pounds, 8/100 under 160 pounds (Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Jayden Reed, Tank Dell, DeVonta Smith, Tutu Atwell, KJ Hamler, Hollywood Brown)

Length thresholds: 16/100 have a 33+ inch arm, 6/100 have a sub-30-inch arm (Zay Flowers, Tre Tucker, Wan’Dale Robinson, Rondale Moore, Tutu Atwell, Andy Isabella)

Average statistics (out of 83 – includes COVID shortened Sr. seasons): 55 receptions, 1,042 yards (19.4 yards per catch), 13.6 TD

Statistical thresholds:

  • 14/90 who played receiver had under 8 receiving touchdowns
  • 33/90 had 15+ receiving touchdowns
  • 6/90 had a yards per catch under 15
  • 1/90 had a yards per catch under 13.5
  • 30/90 had a yards per catch over 20.

Average athletic testing: 4.56 second 40-yard dash (out of 51), 4.28 second shuttle (out of 56), 35.1 vertical (out of 58)

Average 100 meter time (out of 48): 10.93 seconds (18/48 under 10.7 seconds, 10/48 over 11.2 seconds)

Multi-sport: 82/100 played multiple sports. Track (66/100) and basketball (42/100) are the most common.

Geographic dispersion: Texas (15), Florida (13), Louisiana (8), California (8), Alabama (6), Tennessee (6), Georgia (5), South Carolina (5), Arizona (4), Pennsylvania (4)

Additional notes:

  • 90/100 played wide receiver – 6 played quarterback, 4 played running back (averaged 1,865 rushing yards).
  • The last 22 first-round receivers were all multi-sport athletes.
  • 10/16 who are under 5-foot-11 had a 100 meter time of 11.11 seconds or better.

Tight End

The sample: The last 48 tight ends drafted rounds 1-3 (2017-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-4.5, 224.6 pounds, 32.9-inch arm, 9.83-inch hand

Height thresholds: 1/48 under 6-foot-3, 13/48 under 6-foot-4, 9/48 over 6-foot-5

Weight thresholds: 2/48 over 250 pounds (Darnell Washington, Devin Asiasi), 8/48 under 210 pounds (3 who signed with FBS out of high school)

Frame thresholds:

Average receiving statistics (out of 37): 42 receptions, 740.6 yards (18.3 yards per catch), 8.5 receiving TD

Other positions: 45/48 played a position in addition to or instead of tight end. 29/48 played both ways. 20/48 played wide receiver, 6/48 played quarterback.

Average athletic testing (out of 22): 4.80 second 40-yard dash (high of 5.08), 4.44 second shuttle, 31.9 vertical

Multi-sport: 42/48 played multiple sports (the last 16 picks) with basketball (27/48) the most common.

Geographic dispersion: California (7), Georgia (5), Florida (3), Ohio (3), South Dakota (3), Colorado (2), Illinois (2), Iowa (2), New Jersey (2), Nevada (2),

Additional notes: 12/48 did not sign with a FBS program out of high school (Ben Sinnott, Tip Reiman, Tucker Kraft, Greg Dulcich, Adam Trautman, Kahale Warring, Dawson Knox, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert, Gerald Everett, Adam Shaheen).

Offensive Tackle

The sample: The last 60 offensive tackles drafted rounds 1-3 (2019-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-5.6, 292.7 pounds, 34.25-inch arm, 10.1-inch hand

Height thresholds: 2/60 under 6-foot-4 (Ikem Ekwonu, Rashawn Slater), 15/60 over 6-foot-6 (4/14 in 2024 Draft)

Weight thresholds: 9/60 over 320 pounds, 27/60 over 300 pounds, 6/60 under 260 pounds (4 who signed with FBS programs)

Frame thresholds:

  • 56/60 have a 33+ inch arm
  • 39/60 have a 34+ inch arm
  • 42/60 have a 10+ inch hand

Average athletic testing (out of 26): 4.81 second shuttle (7/26 over 5.0 seconds)

Other positions: 32/60 saw time on defense. 20 of the last 26 first-rounders saw time on offense and defense in their prep careers.

Multi-sport:

  • At least 40/60 played multiple sports.
  • Of the 13 who threw the shot put as upperclassmen, the average personal best was 50 feet.
  • 27 played basketball (11 of the last 21), 5 wrestled

Geographic dispersion: Texas (10), Florida (6), Georgia (5), Washington (5), Iowa (3), Minnesota (3), Utah (3)

Additional notes:

Interior Offensive Line

The sample: The last 60 interior offensive linemen drafted rounds 1-3 (2019-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-4.1, 289.5 pounds, 33.1-inch arm, 10-inch hand

Height thresholds: 41/60 over 6-foot-3, 7/60 over 6-foot-5

Weight thresholds: 21/60 over 300 pounds, 1/60 over 330 pounds (O’Cyrus Torrence), 7/60 under 260 pounds

Frame thresholds:

  • 39/60 have a 33+ inch arm
  • 4/60 have a sub 32-inch arm
  • 27/40 have a 10+ inch hand
  • 6/60 have a sub-9.5-inch hand (all six in the past two drafts)

Average athletic testing (out of 28): 4.79 second shuttle (4/28 over 5.0 seconds)

Other positions: 37/60 played both ways, with most playing offensive and defensive line.

Multi-sport:

  • At least 46/60 played multiple sports.
  • Of the 23 who threw the shot put as upperclassmen, the average personal best was 50.4 feet.
  • 21 played basketball, 8 wrestled, 8 played baseball

Geographic dispersion: Ohio (5), Texas (5), California (4), Wisconsin (4), Georgia (3), Illinois (3), Mississippi (3), Pennsylvania (3)

Additional notes: 26/60 were ranked as interior offensive linemen as recruits. 23/60 were ranked as offensive tackles.

EDGE

The sample: The last 81 EDGE prospects drafted rounds 1-3 (2019-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-3.9, 231.2 pounds, 33.7-inch arm, 9.8-inch hand

Height thresholds: 65/81 over 6-foot-3, 0/81 under 6-foot-2, 9/81 over 6-foot-5

Weight thresholds: 76/81 210+ pounds, 19/81 over 240 pounds, 2/81 over 270 pounds (Travon Walker, Rashan Gary)

Frame thresholds:

  • 64/81 have a 33+ inch arm
  • 36/81 have a 34+ inch arm (18/32 first-rounders)
  • 0/81 have a sub-32-inch arm
  • 35/81 have a 10+ inch hand
  • 2/81 has a sub-9-inch hand

Average statistics (out of 68): 71 tackles, 21.9 tackles for loss, 10.7 sacks

Average athletic testing (out of 37): 4.84 second 40-yard dash, 4.49 second shuttle, 32.3 inch vertical

Other positions: 50/81 played on offense, with most doubling as a tight end or wide receiver.

Multi-sport: At least 63/81 played multiple sports, 46/81 played basketball, at least 30/81 participated in track.

Geographic dispersion: Georgia (11), Florida (9), California (7), Texas (7), Maryland (5), Virginia (5), Michigan (4), New Jersey (4)

Additional notes: 41/54 EDGE’s with available TFL stats posted 15+ TFL.

Defensive Line

The sample: The last 64 defensive linemen drafted rounds 1-3 (2018-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-3.4, 282.6 pounds, 33.2-inch arm, 9.9-inch hand

Height thresholds: 40/64 over 6-foot-3, 9/64 under 6-foot-2, 11/64 over 6-foot-4

Weight thresholds: 48/64 under 300 pounds, 4/64 over 330 pounds, 5/64 under 250 pounds

Frame thresholds:

  • 41/64 have a 33+ inch arm
  • 14/64 have a 34+ inch arm (6 first-rounders)
  • 5/64 have a sub-32-inch arm
  • 34/64 have a 10+ inch hand
  • 1/64 have a sub-9.5-inch hand (1/64 under 9)

Average statistics (out of 50): 75 tackles, 20.7 tackles for loss, 9.4 sacks

Average athletic testing (out of 31): 5.19 second 40-yard dash, 4.71 second shuttle (4/31 over 5.0 seconds), 27.1 inch vertical

Other positions: 31/64 played on both sides of the ball

Multi-sport: 41/64 played multiple sports with basketball and track being the most common.

Geographic dispersion: Texas (10), Florida (6), Alabama (5), Mississippi (5), North Carolina (4), Ohio (4)

Additional notes: 5 of the last 7 first-rounders were under 6-foot-4, following a run where 83% of first-rounders at the position were 6-foot-4 or taller.

Linebacker

The sample: The last 60 linebackers drafted rounds 1-3 (2018-2024)

Average size: 6’2, 213.3 pounds, 32.4-inch arm, 9.7-inch hand

Height thresholds: 4/60 under 6-feet (1 first-rounder, Devin Bush), 7/60 under 6-foot-1, 9/60 over 6-foot-3 (5 first-rounders)

Weight thresholds: 51/60 over 200 pounds, 1/60 over 240 pounds (Micah Parsons, who plays EDGE in the NFL)

Frame thresholds:

  • 22/60 have a 33+ inch arm (7 first-rounders)
  • 13/60 have a sub-32-inch arm (3 first-rounders)
  • 4/60 have a sub-31-inch arm
  • 18/60 have a 10+ inch hand (4 first-rounders)
  • 3/60 have a sub-9-inch hand

Average statistics (out of 50): 92.5 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 5.9 sacks

Average athletic testing (out of 33): 4.70 second 40-yard dash (6 over 4.8), 4.35 shuttle, 34.3 vertical

Other positions: 46/60 played on offense, including five of the last six first-rounders.

Multi-sport: 45/60 played multiple sports. Track (30) and basketball (21) were the most common.

Geographic dispersion: Texas (8), California (7), Georgia (6), Louisiana (4), North Carolina (4), Alabama (3), Ohio (3), Mississippi (3), South Carolina (3), Virginia (3)

Cornerback

The sample: The last 88 cornerbacks drafted rounds 1-3 (2018-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-0.1, 177 pounds, 31.5-inch arm

Height thresholds:

Weight thresholds:

Length thresholds: 29/88 have a 32+ inch arm (8 first-rounders), 5/88 have a sub 30-inch arm

Average statistics (out of 51): 42 tackles, 9.2 pass breakups, 3.4 interceptions

Average 100 meter time (out of 48): 10.97 seconds (12/21 first-rounders with a sub 11.0 second time)

Average 200 meter time (out of 26): 22.05 seconds

Average athletic testing (out of 45): 4.58 second 40-yard dash, 4.25 shuttle, 35.5 inch vertical

Other positions: 78/88 played on offense with wide receiver (58/88) being the most common.

Multi-sport: 79/88 played multiple sports with most (63) running track.

Geographic dispersion: Florida (20), Georgia (8), Alabama (7), Louisiana (7), Texas (6), California (5), Michigan (4), North Carolina (4)

Safety

The sample: The last 50 safeties drafted rounds 1-3 (2018-2024)

Average size: 6-foot-0.6, 186 pounds, 31.6-inch arm

Height thresholds: 37/50 6-feet or taller, 3/50 under 5-foot-10-.5 (Tykee Smith, Sydney Brown, Antoine Winfield Jr.), 3/50 over 6-foot-2.5

Weight thresholds: 46/50 over 170 pounds, 4/50 over 200 pounds, 0/50 over 210 pounds

Length thresholds: 36/50 have a 31+ inch arm, 19/50 have a 32+ inch arm, 2/50 has a sub-30-inch arm

Average statistics (out of 48): 61 tackles, 3.6 interceptions

Other positions: At least 39/50 also played on offense. 30/50 played wide receiver, 7 saw time at quarterback.

Average athletic testing (out of 24): 4.64 40, 4.25 shuttle, 35.5 vertical

Average 100 meter time (out of 15): 11.15 seconds

Multi-sport: At least 32/50 played multiple sports. 20 participated in track, 13 played basketball.

Geographic dispersion: Florida (7), Georgia (7), Texas (6), California (4), Ohio (3), Pennsylvania (3)

Additional notes: The average arm length for the last seven first-round safeties is 32.1 inches.

Youth Movement

In the 2024 draft, 39% of the picks in the first three rounds had late birthdays for their respective cycles, as defined by turning 18 years-old on April 1 or later of their senior year. Nearly 10% of those top 100 picks in 2024 turned 18 years-old during their freshman season of college football. Inversely, just six top 100 draft picks in 2024 were older for their class – as defined by turning 18 years-old in May of their junior year or earlier.

This appears to be a trend when you consider the 2023 NFL Draft as well. 69/201 round 1-3 picks in the past two drafts were young for their cycle. Just 16/201 were older for their cycle. Remarkably, just 3/201 turned 19 years-old during their senior season of high school football. On the other hand, 14/201 turned 18 during their freshman season of college football.