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2027 Expected Points - and other stuff

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Wrestleknownothing

All-American
Oct 30, 2021
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The new expected points model is here. I know. You could not be more excited.

Here is a taste.



And for the full experience you can read all about it here.

wrestling.guru

2027 NCAA Expected Points Model | Wrestling.Guru

Summer is almost over. What better time to add some wrestling math to your summer reading list? It is time to reveal the 2027 NCAA Expected Points Model. As ...
wrestling.guru wrestling.guru
 
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Acacia

Senior
Oct 30, 2021
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Since its summer and the living is easy... Can you run the expected points model with just Penn State wrestlers and then again with just the field (no Penn State)? Pretty sure Penn State will exceed the field in the top 3 seeds at least.

And also while I am killing time on the golf course... show me the forecast #1 Seed points by weight class. I find work much easier for me if you do it!!! ;).
 
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TwoJoints

TwoJoints

Senior
Feb 2, 2025
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Acacia said:
Since its summer and the living is easy... Can you run the expected points model with just Penn State wrestlers and then again with just the field (no Penn State)? Pretty sure Penn State will exceed the field in the top 3 seeds at least.

And also while I am killing time on the golf course... show me the forecast #1 Seed points by weight class. I find work much easier for me if you do it!!! ;).
Click to expand...
While you’re at it, with all this time on your hands, why not run it using what you believe to be Penn State’s starting line up and then again using Penn State’s top back up. That should yield the #1 team and a top 5 team or better.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-American
Oct 30, 2021
2,293
6,141
113
Acacia said:
Since its summer and the living is easy... Can you run the expected points model with just Penn State wrestlers and then again with just the field (no Penn State)? Pretty sure Penn State will exceed the field in the top 3 seeds at least.

And also while I am killing time on the golf course... show me the forecast #1 Seed points by weight class. I find work much easier for me if you do it!!! ;).
Click to expand...

TwoJoints said:
While you’re at it, with all this time on your hands, why not run it using what you believe to be Penn State’s starting line up and then again using Penn State’s top back up. That should yield the #1 team and a top 5 team or better.
Click to expand...
I love these ideas.

I have done a "PSU bump" calc in the past. And will do it again. And while back-ups may be a bridge to far....dare to dream. It's what separates us from the savages.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-American
Oct 30, 2021
2,293
6,141
113
Sadly Penn State has not been good enough to provide data at every seed over the last seven tournaments. Oh well.

But among the top 8 seeds this is what the average performance looks like for PSU vs The Field



The #1 seeds are real laggards, only outperforming the field by 16%. The #7 seed outperformed by 257%. If the #1 seed did the same they would average over 48 points per tournament. That is how that works, right?
 
A

Acacia

Senior
Oct 30, 2021
322
728
93
Wrestleknownothing said:
Sadly Penn State has not been good enough to provide data at every seed over the last seven tournaments. Oh well.

But among the top 8 seeds this is what the average performance looks like for PSU vs The Field



The #1 seeds are real laggards, only outperforming the field by 16%. The #7 seed outperformed by 257%. If the #1 seed did the same they would average over 48 points per tournament. That is how that works, right?
Click to expand...
Thanks, but I hope Okie State doesn't notice. This is the secret sauce... 40 bonus points last year at NCAAs. And with Levi hopefully returning they are all back... ;)
 
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WexfordWarrior

WexfordWarrior

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
499
1,273
93
Wrestleknownothing said:
The new expected points model is here. I know. You could not be more excited.

Here is a taste.



And for the full experience you can read all about it here.

wrestling.guru

2027 NCAA Expected Points Model | Wrestling.Guru

Summer is almost over. What better time to add some wrestling math to your summer reading list? It is time to reveal the 2027 NCAA Expected Points Model. As ...
wrestling.guru wrestling.guru
Click to expand...
 
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