Why are people still quoting the $50 mil figure?

maybee1

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It's the most obvious spin. Either they just don't want to hire him or they were trying to get boosters to pony up. The actual cost is much less, because any coach we hire would not be making as much as Beamer and you wouldn't pay his salary. It's nonsensical from a finance perspective to not take into account the savings from firing Beamer (35% of his contract) and to count hiring a new staff to replace his as an additional cost when in that scenario you're not paying the salaries of Beamer's staff next year. Basically, whether it's Beamer's staff or another staff next year, we will be paying a football coaching staff a significant amount of money next season. The $50 mil number double counts that amount.

Say you hire a guy at $6 mil a year average through 2030 (you could easily get someone for cheaper, look at the bottom paid coaches in the SEC). You're saving 35% of Beamer's salary of ~$8.5 mil by firing him, which is ~$3 mil a year. That's half of the new coach's salary paid for just in savings from Beamer. Your cost above what we're already gonna pay currently is then just ~$3 mil a year through 2030, which amounts to $12 mil total across 4 years. Add in the cost of buying out Beamer's staff and assume we pay the new staff the same and it comes to maybe $7 mil additional cost next year (this isn't even taking into account that some or most of the staff may be retained or hired elsewhere without having to buy them out - remember Mike Bobo?). So total $10 mil over the next year and $3 mil a year 2028-2030. Grand total $19 mil. Our total athletic department revenue in that same time period (80% or so from football) will be probably between $700-$800mil. So you're spending about 2.5% of your total revenue in that timeframe extra if you fire Beamer. That is a lot of money, but it is not $50 mil, and it is not unaffordable.

tl;dr: The AD would pay less than $20 mil extra over the next 4 years if they pulled the trigger on Beamer. Not saying he should be fired, but don't buy the BS $50 mil number. The finance people advising the athletic department are not thinking like that and neither should you.
 

hillna2

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I'm really confused on these figures, just to get rid of Beamer before the end of the year is $27 mil, drops to $20 after the season, Briles would be owed around $4 mil after the season, White another $2 mil, plus whatever the rest of the staff is making, but I'm betting over that $7 mil figure. We're at $34 mil minimum if we end the Beamer saga in the coming weeks. I'd be willing to bet any staff we bring in is at least $10-15 mil, plus the NIL funding to both keep current players and completely remake the roster to what the new staff is wanting. I don't think that $50 mil figure is off by much.

I do think it is the athletic department trying to have someone write a check and cover most of the costs, but the number isn't off. You're paying Shane Beamer through the end of his contract no matter what, just really depends on how the contract is structured with a lump sum or paid out of the course of his remaining years.
 
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maybee1

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I'm really confused on these figures, just to get rid of Beamer before the end of the year is $27 mil, drops to $20 after the season, Briles would be owed around $4 mil after the season, White another $2 mil, plus whatever the rest of the staff is making, but I'm betting over that $7 mil figure. We're at $34 mil minimum if we end the Beamer saga in the coming weeks. I'd be willing to bet any staff we bring in is at least $10-15 mil, plus the NIL funding to both keep current players and completely remake the roster to what the new staff is wanting. I don't think that $50 mil figure is off by much.

I do think it is the athletic department trying to have someone write a check and cover most of the costs, but the number isn't off. You're paying Shane Beamer through the end of his contract no matter what, just really depends on how the contract is structured with a lump sum or paid out of the course of his remaining years.
My problem with the $50 mil figure is people quote it and act as if they need someone to write a $50 mil check relative to what we're already planning to spend. In reality it's about $20 mil over the next 4 years extra to fire Beamer vs. retain. That's the real cost of firing him.
 
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Piscis

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My problem with the $50 mil figure is people quote it and act as if they need someone to write a $50 mil check relative to what we're already planning to spend. In reality it's about $20 mil over the next 4 years extra to fire Beamer vs. retain. That's the real cost of firing him.
The amount is so small, you should go ahead and call Donati and tell him you will cover it.

Don't forget, last year, the university had to give $42M to the athletic department. Signing up for another $34+/-M in buyout money, no matter how the payout is structured, to fire Beamer can't be very appetizing for Donati right now.
 
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Swifty

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My problem with the $50 mil figure is people quote it and act as if they need someone to write a $50 mil check relative to what we're already planning to spend. In reality it's about $20 mil over the next 4 years extra to fire Beamer vs. retain. That's the real cost of firing him.
These people are assuming that firing Beamer means having to buy out the rest of the staff, plus pay a new HC and new staff. That's not necessarily the case. It could be that White or Briles would be promoted to HC and the rest of the staff stays in place. In that case, you obviously have Beamer's buyout, a rais for whichever guy gets the promotion and a new position coach/analyst salary to add. IF that were the case and were to be a successful move, you absorb the buyout over those next four seasons and are pretty much back to square one. That's obviously best case scenario, but a possibility.
 

hillna2

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These people are assuming that firing Beamer means having to buy out the rest of the staff, plus pay a new HC and new staff. That's not necessarily the case. It could be that White or Briles would be promoted to HC and the rest of the staff stays in place. In that case, you obviously have Beamer's buyout, a rais for whichever guy gets the promotion and a new position coach/analyst salary to add. IF that were the case and were to be a successful move, you absorb the buyout over those next four seasons and are pretty much back to square one. That's obviously best case scenario, but a possibility.
There’s no way that one of those guys would just be elevated to HC. You think the chirping is bad now? Elevate one of those guys to HC. White has maybe blown his chance to be a HC based on the defense this year and Briles hasn’t looked like a mastermind guru yet. There is significant money involved in this decision.
 

hillna2

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My problem with the $50 mil figure is people quote it and act as if they need someone to write a $50 mil check relative to what we're already planning to spend. In reality it's about $20 mil over the next 4 years extra to fire Beamer vs. retain. That's the real cost of firing him.
I think they would prefer that over having to budget for it. Why wouldn’t Donati, as the business manager of our AD, look for someone else to front the bill? That would be dumb of him not to.
 

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White has maybe blown his chance to be a HC based on the defense this year and Briles hasn’t looked like a mastermind guru yet.
If they wanted to be HCs, they'd already be gone like Pete Lembo or Dowell Loggains.

Don't forget we still have fans that were dying to see us somehow snag Lane Kiffen.
 

maybee1

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I think they would prefer that over having to budget for it. Why wouldn’t Donati, as the business manager of our AD, look for someone else to front the bill? That would be dumb of him not to.
Oh yeah I definitely understand why that's the number they are "leaking" to people. It's an attempt at fundraising.
 

maybee1

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These people are assuming that firing Beamer means having to buy out the rest of the staff, plus pay a new HC and new staff. That's not necessarily the case. It could be that White or Briles would be promoted to HC and the rest of the staff stays in place. In that case, you obviously have Beamer's buyout, a rais for whichever guy gets the promotion and a new position coach/analyst salary to add. IF that were the case and were to be a successful move, you absorb the buyout over those next four seasons and are pretty much back to square one. That's obviously best case scenario, but a possibility.
We could easily try with Briles what Miss State tried with Zach Arnett. Give him a one year HC contract at maybe $3.5-4 mil and give him a shot with a decent NIL pool and the same staff. If it doesn't work out, just reset the year after that and hire an outside guy.
 
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Uscg1984

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Does anybody know if the staff contracts have off-set provisions (where the buyouts are reduced by the amount they make at their next football job)? Is it safe to assume they probably do, given the way assistant coaches bounce around so easily?

If so, the only figure that really matters is Beamer's $27m buyout. Beamer could very well decide he doesn't need a coaching job and stick us for the full amount. But the assistants aren't going to sit on a beach somewhere. They're going to find work. In Briles' case, given the improvements in our offense this year, he may even land a better job. Plus, a new coach may decide to retain some of the assistants.

Having said that, I'm firmly in the "assess at the end of the season" camp regarding Beamer. This season could go in wildly different directions at this point.
 

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They may be mad about it, but even they would acknowledge that he has a better record there than we do, and that they are ranked.
Factoring in buyouts on both ends, exactly how much is that one SEC win costing them?

He'll almost certainly do well at LSU, but the path to the top of the hill is steep.
 

Lurker123

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Factoring in buyouts on both ends, exactly how much is that one SEC win costing them?

He'll almost certainly do well at LSU, but the path to the top of the hill is steep.

I agree, right now, that one extra game doesn't look like much.

But I also agree he'll do well there over time.

And part of this is an old argument with a different poster. Kiffin was supposed to be run out of ole miss for losing too much, not for leaving them at the altar.

I just see his results as better than ours, so I hate throwing too many stones.
 

Piscis

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They may be mad about it, but even they would acknowledge that he has a better record there than we do, and that they are ranked.
I don't think any SEC programs use our record and results as any sort of measuring stick for their coach's success.
 

Piscis

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Factoring in buyouts on both ends, exactly how much is that one SEC win costing them?

He'll almost certainly do well at LSU, but the path to the top of the hill is steep.
His record is worse than Kelly's was at this point last season. They have spent a fortune and probably mortgaged their future on a coach who has never won a championship despite coaching at programs with all of the resources needed to win.
 

Lurker123

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I don't think any SEC programs use our record and results as any sort of measuring stick for their coach's success.

Except when the comparison is whether we should have hired Kiffin, and if his LSU fans are currently happy with him.
 

Lurker123

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His record is worse than Kelly's was at this point last season. They have spent a fortune and probably mortgaged their future on a coach who has never won a championship despite coaching at programs with all of the resources needed to win.

There are only what, 4 active coaches who have won a title? (Unless we're counting conference championships, in which case he has 2)

If that is our bar for throwing cash at coaches, then a lot of teams fall in that category.
 
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Piscis

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There are only what, 4 active coaches who have won a title?

If that is our bar for throwing cash at coaches, then a lot of teams fall in that category.
That is exactly why it is probably foolish to fire Beamer after this year. Who would/could come in and have drastically different results in a year or two? SC has a lot of built in impediments to being a championship football program. There is a total lack of a history of winning, a small state population adjacent to traditional football powers that heavily recruit the best HS talent in state, being the secondary football program in the state, having an urban campus in a city that isn't exactly a top tier destination, an off campus stadium with less than ideal tailgating areas and average financial resources.

I'm sure any potential coaches would be well aware of these limitations. Beamer claims to like it here, let him stay.
 
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Deathstar

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If we became a consistent championship contender I wonder if we could make more than $50 million in revenue off of the coaching change in the long run? It is hard to say, our history says that nobody can win here consistently, so it would be a big gamble with a lot of money. The Taters got their championships and now they are no better off financially than we are. They are stuck with a crappy coach that they cannot afford to fire just like we are. SC is a small state and a small market for college sports, I am not sure it is worth investing $50 million in a coaching change here. So, what to do?
 
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Lurker123

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That is exactly why it is probably foolish to fire Beamer after this year. Who would/could come in and have drastically different results in a year or two? SC has a lot of built in impediments to being a championship football program. There is a total lack of a history of winning, a small state population adjacent to traditional football powers that heavily recruit the best HS talent in state, being the secondary football program in the state, having an urban campus in a city that isn't exactly a top tier destination, an off campus stadium with less than ideal tailgating areas and average financial resources.

I'm sure any potential coaches would be well aware of these limitations. Beamer claims to like it here, let him stay.

The difference there is the expectation of championships. I dont think thats a fair measure of a "good coach" because of how rare it is.

Imo, a good coach could come in here and do better than 2 losing seasons out of the last 3.
 

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Except when the comparison is whether we should have hired Kiffin, and if his LSU fans are currently happy with him.
And without any consideration of Kiffen's ethics track record with previous teams including FAU, Ole Miss, UTenn & even the Raiders? Those things matter to some and you might ask some Ole Miss or UTenn fans how they feel about Kiffen.

If we had somehow hired him, some kind of embarrassing ending was inevitable for us. He would clearly be the most hated coach in Gamecock football history.

LSU has sold their soul. Let them live in that reality.
 
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Lurker123

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And without any consideration of Kiffen's ethics track record with previous teams including FAU, Ole Miss, UTenn & even the Raiders? Those things matter to some and you might ask some Ole Miss or UTenn fans how they feel about Kiffen.

If we had somehow hired him, some kind of embarrassing ending was inevitable for us. He would clearly be the most hated coach in Gamecock football history.

LSU has sold their soul. Let them live in that reality.

I imagine it could be like the Spurrier years. Success, then a messy ending. Half the fan base happy about the success, half unhappy with the messy ending.

I personally would just rather have the more success, even knowing its temporary and the guy will move on to a better job.
 

KingWard

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The figure projects the price of paying off everyone who would be gone as a result of firing the head coach, finding and paying the replacement players who would be needed when others leave as a result of the firing, and the initial new contracts (presumably more expensive than the current ones) that would go to the new head man and the people he brings in, both coaches and support staff. Is it overstated? Perhaps, but it's going to cost much more than current book value of what's here now.
 

Piscis

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The difference there is the expectation of championships. I dont think thats a fair measure of a "good coach" because of how rare it is.

Imo, a good coach could come in here and do better than 2 losing seasons out of the last 3.

I agree. Championship expectations are sort of silly for gamecock football. I'm not saying a championship is impossible or will never happen, but trying to find a coach who is going to come in and win an SEC or National championship in 5 or 6 years is really unreasonable and setting yourself up for disappointment. If a coach can win 7 or 8 games a season pretty much every season, with a 9 or even 10 win season thrown in once a decade, that would be acceptable to the majority of gamecock football fans and should be.
 

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I imagine it could be like the Spurrier years.
LOL! You're an idiot.
Kiffen's track record is the exact opposite of the HBC.
If we hired him, the first decent season he had here, he'd bolt and leave us in the lurch.
Likely the AD & BOT had the insight to never consider hiring Kiffen.
 

Lurker123

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LOL! You're an idiot.
Kiffen's track record is the exact opposite of the HBC.
If we hired him, the first decent season he had here, he'd bolt and leave us in the lurch.
Likely the AD & BOT had the insight to never consider hiring Kiffen.

The exact opposite?

By having some success and then leaving us a mess? And you think thats the OPPOSITE of what Spurrier did here?

What I actually assume he'd do is what he's done at his last couple stops. Show success, build a team, then leave overnight for a better program.

I'm just saying that it might be nice to enjoy that success even for a short while rather than be excited that our coach is doing the type of job that leaves no one wanting to steal him from us.
 

maybee1

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The figure projects the price of paying off everyone who would be gone as a result of firing the head coach, finding and paying the replacement players who would be needed when others leave as a result of the firing, and the initial new contracts (presumably more expensive than the current ones) that would go to the new head man and the people he brings in, both coaches and support staff. Is it overstated? Perhaps, but it's going to cost much more than current book value of what's here now.
No, it doesn't. We are paying the players we have on our roster and will be paying for transfers either way. Our NIL budget isn't changing. We have to pay a premium for top talent out of the portal either way because nobody wants to come play for a losing coach. Impossible to say our NIL expense for a team of the same talent would be higher if we fired Shane Beamer.

"Presumably more expensive than the current ones" And why would this be exactly? Shane Beamer ($8,250,000) is currently the 9th highest paid head coach in the SEC. If you look at the new hires that were made this year in the SEC, other than Lane Kiffin every single one of them is paid less than Beamer (lowest being Lebby at $4,250,000 and highest Sumrall at $7,450,000). Beamer has two coordinators that are paid over $2 mil a year, which puts them in very good territory with top coordinators in the conference. If anything, a new coaching staff would be cheaper than the one we've currently got, especially the top man.
 

KingWard

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No, it doesn't. We are paying the players we have on our roster and will be paying for transfers either way. Our NIL budget isn't changing. We have to pay a premium for top talent out of the portal either way because nobody wants to come play for a losing coach. Impossible to say our NIL expense for a team of the same talent would be higher if we fired Shane Beamer.

"Presumably more expensive than the current ones" And why would this be exactly? Shane Beamer ($8,250,000) is currently the 9th highest paid head coach in the SEC. If you look at the new hires that were made this year in the SEC, other than Lane Kiffin every single one of them is paid less than Beamer (lowest being Lebby at $4,250,000 and highest Sumrall at $7,450,000). Beamer has two coordinators that are paid over $2 mil a year, which puts them in very good territory with top coordinators in the conference. If anything, a new coaching staff would be cheaper than the one we've currently got, especially the top man.
Wait and see. If we can find the figures when it's all settled, what they add up to will be large. Cleaning up a mess always costs more than not having to. Any time you pay one person to do a job and another not to do the same job at the same time, and when it's several people, it's going to mount up, and the market is going make sure that it does.
 

Piscis

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Wait and see. If we can find the figures when it's all settled, what they add up to will be large. Cleaning up a mess always costs more than not having to. Any time you pay one person to do a job and another not to do the same job at the same time, and when it's several people, it's going to mount up, and the market is going make sure that it does.
I think too many people think firing Beamer would be like a surgeon cutting out a skin cancer. They think Beamer would be fired and Briles, White, Clements and all the good coaches would stay and work for the new coach, all the players would stay and everything would be better. That isn't how the real world works.

If Briles were promoted to HC, that would probably make White mad since he has been here longer as DC. White would probably leave, or worse, would become a disgruntled coordinator whose unhappiness would spread to the other defensive coaches and some players on the defensive side of the ball. White could really throw a wrench in the monkey works if he floated the "racism" thing about why Briles was hired over him.

If a new coach were hired, he would want to bring in his own staff. He would not be likely to keep Briles, White, Clements or any of the staff. This would mean a whole new staff that the players don't know and weren't recruited by. A ton of players would leave and the new coach would have to start from close to scratch on building a roster.
 
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Lurker123

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I think too many people think firing Beamer would be like a surgeon cutting out a skin cancer. They think Beamer would be fired and Briles, White, Clements and all the good coaches would stay and work for the new coach, all the players would stay and everything would be better. That isn't how the real world works.

If Briles were promoted to HC, that would probably make White mad since he has been here longer as DC. White would probably leave, or worse, would become a disgruntled coordinator whose unhappiness would spread to the other defensive coaches and some players on the defensive side of the ball. White could really throw a wrench in the monkey works if he floated the "racism" thing about why Briles was hired over him.

If a new coach were hired, he would want to bring in his own staff. He would not be likely to keep Briles, White, Clements or any of the staff. This would mean a whole new staff that the players don't know and weren't recruited by. A ton of players would leave and the new coach would have to start from close to scratch on building a roster.

You are right. A new HC would trigger a total rebuild. But with the way cfb is today, thats not such a daunting thing as it used to be.
 

Piscis

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You are right. A new HC would trigger a total rebuild. But with the way cfb is today, thats not such a daunting thing as it used to be.
I think donor fatigue might become a big factor in rebuilding after a coach is fired. Asking donors to pony up to pay the fired coach and staff and pony up again to hire the new savior and pony up for the big NIL budget needed to build a roster quickly while still paying more for tickets is going to get old.

I could be wrong, but I have a feeling donors to programs like SC, that aren't rewarding those donations with exciting winning seasons and championships are going to be less likely to open their wallets in the future. At some point, the donors will look at the AD and say "sorry, I don't see the value here". I know some young alumni and none of them buy season tickets. They say the amount of money required is too much for what they get out of the games. They go to a couple games a year with tickets from Stubhub and, even if they pay a few hundred dollars a ticket, it is much cheaper than getting season tickets. The old school, loyal donor the program knew it could count on to cough up whatever the program asked is dying out. It was one thing for a fan to make a $1000 donation and pay $800 for two season tickets and entirely another for them to spend $5000 on two tickets, the donation and an NIL donation to watch the team win 6 to 8 games a season.
 

Lurker123

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I think donor fatigue might become a big factor in rebuilding after a coach is fired. Asking donors to pony up to pay the fired coach and staff and pony up again to hire the new savior and pony up for the big NIL budget needed to build a roster quickly while still paying more for tickets is going to get old.

I could be wrong, but I have a feeling donors to programs like SC, that aren't rewarding those donations with exciting winning seasons and championships are going to be less likely to open their wallets in the future. At some point, the donors will look at the AD and say "sorry, I don't see the value here". I know some young alumni and none of them buy season tickets. They say the amount of money required is too much for what they get out of the games. They go to a couple games a year with tickets from Stubhub and, even if they pay a few hundred dollars a ticket, it is much cheaper than getting season tickets. The old school, loyal donor the program knew it could count on to cough up whatever the program asked is dying out. It was one thing for a fan to make a $1000 donation and pay $800 for two season tickets and entirely another for them to spend $5000 on two tickets, the donation and an NIL donation to watch the team win 6 to 8 games a season.

I agree with this too, but i also see donor fatigue for a failing coach.

First off, Beamer could salvage this season and make it a moot point for a couple years.

OR

Beamer could end up with a losing season. How much donor fatigue do you see with a coach having 3 out of 4 losing seasons?

It could be an issue either direction, and youre forced to gamble on which is the less bad path.
 

Piscis

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I agree with this too, but i also see donor fatigue for a failing coach.

First off, Beamer could salvage this season and make it a moot point for a couple years.

OR

Beamer could end up with a losing season. How much donor fatigue do you see with a coach having 3 out of 4 losing seasons?

It could be an issue either direction, and youre forced to gamble on which is the less bad path.

It is sort of a "being on the horns of a dilemma" thing. I don't think Beamer has a losing season, I still see 6-6 and a crap bowl game that the best players will opt out of and we will lose, but I really don't care about bowl games. Bowl games to me are nothing more than scrimmages against another team where we get to see some of the players for next year.

How many failing coaches do donors pay for? Seeing Spurrier slink away in the night followed by the Muschamp years and now suffering through Beamer has to have donors wondering if SC football is really worth putting money into. It has been a very long time since the donors could look at the football program and feel like they were getting value for their money.

I think we are stuck in a "cheaper to keep her" situation.
 
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