BWI Sports Betting Thread

MtNittany

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
3,980
5,530
113
My analysis thru 29 pages of plays in this thread…

Plays posted before a game starts: ~50% (maybe a touch higher, give credit for some early Cignetti love)

Plays posted after games have finished: 99% (Eric Cole keeps it from 100%, but he’s going to break thru some day to give a big score, hopefully in a week I have him in fantasy)
Don't count on Eric. His caddy (Russ Cochran's son) once explained it to me. He spent so much time on the mini tours that he swore if he ever made it out there, there would be NO pin he wouldn't fire at. This shows up in his play on weekends where he makes too many 5's and 6's. Hitting it right to left doesn't help either.
 

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
Misleading box scores. As usual, turnovers typically tell the story. Note Marshall's 6 turnovers! Otherwise, they were much better than CC.

You know who didn't have a misleading box score? Oregon State because they continue to be a wagon. They've always been one of my favorite bet-on teams because they are constantly underrated and play really well at home. Glad to see them back and I will continue to play on them this season.


1791835692400.png
 

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
No B10 updates.
2026: 2-1-1
Since 2024: 19-31-1

ACC
Wake travels to Stanford and covers by a lot
2026: 3-2
Since 2025: 10-9
B10 update
Iowa smokes UW to score 1 for the 2+ TZ travelers. Unfortunately, USC also covers for the travelers (they are now 2-17 ATS since 2012 when traveling 2+ TZ).

Seeing market correction this year
2026: 4-1-1
Since 2024: 21-31-1

ACC
Our boy James gives one back to the home side. I'm not going to count ND's win over Stanford since they are not officially in the conference.

2026: 3-3
Since 2025: 10-10
 

CDLionFL

All-Conference
Oct 25, 2021
1,778
2,712
113
Scrolled through the NFL lines and saw Panthers/Eagles was -1/pick-em...20 mins later, the Hurts news comes out and it quickly jumped to Panthers 3 1/2.
 

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
Scrolled through the NFL lines and saw Panthers/Eagles was -1/pick-em...20 mins later, the Hurts news comes out and it quickly jumped to Panthers 3 1/2.
Yeah, I just posted in the Philly thread. A lot of people will be surprised that Hurts>MKee is only with 2.5 to 3 points. I am not. I would be very tempted to bet the Eagles at +4 or better.
 

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
Indiana's opponents have fumbled 9 times this season and recovered all 9. Regression coming?
More tickets written on OSU but the line has gone from -3.5 to -3 since yesterday. IU is 1-5 ATS this season.
 

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
This week's misleading box scores. I complain when I'm on the losing end of these, but I got lucky on Tulane and VT this week. Not so much on OU.

Memphis had 6 TOs!!!
VT definitely didn't deserve to win by 10.
SMiss and OU should have won outright.

Some other notes:
TX St with 716 yards!
UW was -3 in TOs and still won by 12.
Indiana could have gone in the misleading box scores. Had better total yardage and YPP than OSU.

1792427522163.png
 
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Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
B10 update
Iowa smokes UW to score 1 for the 2+ TZ travelers. Unfortunately, USC also covers for the travelers (they are now 2-17 ATS since 2012 when traveling 2+ TZ).

Seeing market correction this year
2026: 4-1-1
Since 2024: 21-31-1

ACC
Our boy James gives one back to the home side. I'm not going to count ND's win over Stanford since they are not officially in the conference.

2026: 3-3
Since 2025: 10-10
Update on teams travelling 2+ TZ in conference.

B10
UW beats Purdue outright.
Wisconsin does not cover at UCLA
Nebraska covers vs Oregon

2026: 6-2-1 (big regression so far)
Since 2024: 23-32-1

ACC
Wake pounds Cal

2026: 4-3
Since 2025: 11-10
 
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Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
Two situational spots this weekend.

There were 3 spots I picked out in the preseason - Ole Miss at Florida after the LSU game, Central Ark at FSU between the Bama and UVA games (both won), and finally Missouri State playing at Delaware on a Tuesday on 2 straight weeks of 6 days rest. Delaware is -3.

Kentucky plays Vandy off huge wins vs LSU and at OU. They have a bye next and then play Tennessee, Florida, and Missou. I'm of the mindset that teams tend to relax a bit before a bye, but that is not a strong part of this spot. It's disgusting, but Vandy is in a good situation this week.
 

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
This week's misleading box scores. I complain when I'm on the losing end of these, but I got lucky on Tulane and VT this week. Not so much on OU.

Memphis had 6 TOs!!!
VT definitely didn't deserve to win by 10.
SMiss and OU should have won outright.

Some other notes:
TX St with 716 yards!
UW was -3 in TOs and still won by 12.
Indiana could have gone in the misleading box scores. Had better total yardage and YPP than OSU.

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MtNittany

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
3,980
5,530
113
I had a nice live ML bet on IU at one point at +750 for 10 bucks. I realize you have to catch the ball IU receiver, but you also have to know where the sideline is.
 
Last edited:

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
4,104
5,588
113
Since essentially beating Michigan, Western Michigan is 1-4 ATS vs FBS opponents

Since losing to Tulsa in W1, Oklahoma State is 4-0 ATS vs FBS opponents.
 
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