Assuming we’re a roughly 55% favorite, on average, in the remaining 6 games, that equates to a 3% chance to sweep.
I think we can do it, but it ain’t gonna be easy.
I think we can do it, but it ain’t gonna be easy.
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3% chance to win out
- Thread starter HawksRule73
- Start date
I think you're underestimating.
ESPN has us as 70-85% chance of winning each Min, Wis, PUR and IL, and 44% for each NW and NE.
When you actually calculate it out, the result is 6% chance.
If you consider Min, PU and IL to be 100% chance of winning, the chance of winning the other 3 is 13%, which still seems low.
I guess the Hawks just need to keep winning until it’s 100%….
ESPN has us as 70-85% chance of winning each Min, Wis, PUR and IL, and 44% for each NW and NE.
When you actually calculate it out, the result is 6% chance.
If you consider Min, PU and IL to be 100% chance of winning, the chance of winning the other 3 is 13%, which still seems low.
I guess the Hawks just need to keep winning until it’s 100%….
Nebraska won’t be favored in Kinnick.
Hawks could win out and STILL be the 4th highest ranked BIG team, likely behind OSU, Indy, and the winner of UCLA/USC. In the USC scenario, they’d have to beat OSU and UCLA and lose to Indiana. I think that would keep all three ahead of the hawks even with 2 losses
of course a lot depends on how the committee will view Iowa vs UCLA/USC.
that said, I DO agree Iowa’s chances of winning out at 3%. Keep in mind, they could easily be 3-3 with close losses to MI and ISU. We came out on the right side of those “coin flip” game outcomes. Opponent records the rest of the way are 24-14. I still think 9-3 is the most likely scenario, with a good chance at 10-2, and a very outside chance at 11-1. Just enjoy the ride and root like heII!!
of course a lot depends on how the committee will view Iowa vs UCLA/USC.
that said, I DO agree Iowa’s chances of winning out at 3%. Keep in mind, they could easily be 3-3 with close losses to MI and ISU. We came out on the right side of those “coin flip” game outcomes. Opponent records the rest of the way are 24-14. I still think 9-3 is the most likely scenario, with a good chance at 10-2, and a very outside chance at 11-1. Just enjoy the ride and root like heII!!
going forward we are the super bowl of a bunch of teams who are similar to us talentwise.
if our rank shows improvement the rabidity will increase to fever pitch. that last game is going to be something else if we hold up till then
if our rank shows improvement the rabidity will increase to fever pitch. that last game is going to be something else if we hold up till then
Dont wanna put the cart before the horse but do you know the history of good Kirk Ferentz teams in Nov.?? It the chips fall correctly and Kirk gets this team right...... I might see you in Indy. Massey computer rankings to me is the most unbiased site. Go Hawks! Plus I think having Fitzgeralds kid on the team removes the very real Purple curse.
Nebraska???? In Kinnick???? We kickin their ***. We gonna break that scrawny little QB in two.
Great info and graphic, I need to bookmark this.
I think it’s a lot better than that.
when the toughest game left on your schedule is Northwestern winning out is a reasonable goal.
when the toughest game left on your schedule is Northwestern winning out is a reasonable goal.
This isn't the typical Northwestern team. They have Chip Kelly as an OC and Aiden Chiles is having a great season. 9 td's and 0 int's.
Win out = Top 6 in playoffs for sure
Win out and lose B1G championship game = playoffs
Lose @ NW, win out and be lucky enough to play in B1G championship game and win it - playoffs
Win out and lose B1G championship game = playoffs
Lose @ NW, win out and be lucky enough to play in B1G championship game and win it - playoffs
I wasn't making a subjective statement on our ability to win those games. I was simply stating the objective statistical likelihood of it happening. Doesn't mean it won't. But the math says that there's only about a 3-5% chance that it does.
That’s fine but it isn’t like they have road games against Indiana, UCLA, USC, or Oregon.
if winning out is the goal, their schedule is like rolling Yahtzee.
They certainly have a solid defense. Not sold at all on their offense, and with the only ranked team on their schedule being USC, they are capable of running the table.
That sounds about right multiplying out all those probabilities. But @MeetTheFerentzes also said the hawks are mentioned as higher favorites in 4 games. Iowa does not go on what would turn out to be a 7 game winning streak very often with the 6 remaining games. Most Big 10 teams find that hard to do.
The only important thing is the players and coaches just concentrating on the game at hand, playing smart, clean, 100+% effort which they do, and getting better in the pass defense especially but all aspects of the game.
Beat the gophers and I remember back in the late 70's or early 80's when Minny was at kinnick and some dude ran across the field pregame from NE to SW holding up a long pole with a dead gopher type varmint on it. And the crowd went nuts.
My favorite was sometime in the early/mid 90's, can't remember when exactly, and someone, somehow, was able to get a hogs head into Kinnick and it ended up getting attached to a goal post. But I don't think it was a Minnesota game.....maybe PSU?
And I was referring to the Iowa vs Northwestern game that will happen this year. Not them winning out.
Fans are so inventive when they set their minds to it. If our best thinkers would pretend to be fans out to do a totally impossible stunt then we would be on Mars by now.
FTR, I was reporting ESPN's matchup predictor analytics, not my opinion.
10-2 won’t get them in. Gotta win out.
No that won’t do it, have to win the big ten championship to even get mentioned
10-2 with no signature wins isn’t going to get Iowa in over other B1G/SEC teams who also have 2 losses but have good wins. Hate to break the news to you.
It really depends on who the loss is to. We're also a few weeks away from any real rankings and halfway through the season. It's all just jibber jabber from us. The people with the opinions that matter might see it differently.
Depends on what you want to classify as a signature win. Once the season shakes out I bet you Iowa have at least one win that looks really good if they go 10-2. But I do agree, I think they would be more likely to be the outside looking in. Especially since Vandy got left out last year.
I think we have a higher chance than that. I’d put it at 10%. I’d put our over under at 4.5 more wins for the last six games
ESPN’s matchup analytics looks fairly accurate to me, except giving Nebraska a 56% chance to win at Kinnick in the last game. That’s absolutely laughable. If you are within 10 points of Nebraska in the 4th quarter all you have to do is sit back and watch them self destruct. It’s like clockwork.
IMO Iowa's team is better than the rest of the teams on the schedule. That said, a few of them could put up a fight and be dangerous. We've had our bye week, winning out will be a challenge.
We know at Northwestern will be a challenge, but for some reason at Illinois worries me.
We know at Northwestern will be a challenge, but for some reason at Illinois worries me.
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