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dtrain79

Heisman
Jul 13, 2006
49,142
27,907
113
Great question. You won’t like the answer. You are correct that cumulative is what counts.



I quite clearly understand elections better than Seth Keshel Special. Elections are not only about turnout (and the Dem turnout in Texas is absolutely superior to the R turnout in terms of history, but there are more Rs in Texas than Dems), but they are also about persuasion.

Activists and partisans hate this, but voters in the middle switch sides. Sometimes those more loosely affiliated don’t show, sometimes they show up big (Dems this year). Sometimes new voters come out in favor of one side.

If Dems simply won the turnout battle in Texas, they still wouldn’t win the state. They have to win the persuasion battle too.

As I keep explaining, Dems are going to win a lot of Trump voters among Hispanics and suburban women. Texas has ample numbers of both.

Will it be enough? I think so. So do the bettors on Kalshi, where Talarico is at near 70%. But it might not be enough.
 

dtrain79

Heisman
Jul 13, 2006
49,142
27,907
113
Great question. You won’t like the answer. You are correct that cumulative is what counts.



If every Texas voter voted for the team they’ve voted for most, Paxton would win even if Dems won the turnout battle heavily.

Setting aside that differential turnout does in fact favor Ds in terms of comps to the last two elections, Talarico needs to win persuasion.

Theres a reason Abbott runs 6% better than Paxton in polling. It’s called persuasion.
 

dtrain79

Heisman
Jul 13, 2006
49,142
27,907
113
The kicker to this is the guy Keshel is citing to projects Talarico winning by over 4% lol.

That seems optimistic to me, but I’m with the 70% on Kalshi.
 

ILisBest

All-American
Jun 16, 2007
8,036
6,497
113
 

Uncoach

Heisman
Dec 8, 2011
7,781
11,498
113
These public “servants” don’t even attempt to represent the Constitution correctly. We live in a constitutional republic, not a constitutional democracy.

 
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Uncoach

Heisman
Dec 8, 2011
7,781
11,498
113
Fascinating research on breast milk. It indicates only 2 sexes (male and female) and the breast milk made by the mother changes during throughout the day and understands if the baby is getting ill. The far left medical complex can change body parts. They can’t manufacture this.

 
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BigWill

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
54,755
33,498
113

Alert !

Mad Dog was in a head on MV crash in Conn last month.

2 lane highway, 1 lane each way. Other car was on the wrong way on curve.
"I thought as I spun out into a rock wall, ""I.m not going to survive this !!"""
All 7 air bags deployed, broken nose. Car totaled ! Other guy nothing in a Subaru, no injuries. Mad Dog next car, Subaru !

Immigrant from Maine.
 

stoneaxe27

All-American
Sep 22, 2006
6,043
6,771
113


Feels like that is a higher number than stone gave yesterday. It is in fact growing faster.

At this point in time, medical insurance increases are arcoss the board. No such thing as Obamacare premiums rising independent of medical costs/insurance in general. Showing a picture of a fence sign doesn't change the dynamic.
 

Uncoach

Heisman
Dec 8, 2011
7,781
11,498
113


Feels like that is a higher number than stone gave yesterday. It is in fact growing faster.

Aside from the Trump/MAGA vs Thune/Establishment BS and never getting Trump policy codified or open judiciary seats getting filled with friendlies, I think having all 3 chambers and not doing anything about Obamacare and actually taking the lead on the issue is my biggest disappointment with the last couple of years.
 

Semi-elite R2R athlete

All-American
Sep 13, 2008
4,313
9,397
113
Alert !

Mad Dog was in a head on MV crash in Conn last month.

2 lane highway, 1 lane each way. Other car was on the wrong way on curve.
"I thought as I spun out into a rock wall, ""I.m not going to survive this !!"""
All 7 air bags deployed, broken nose. Car totaled ! Other guy nothing in a Subaru, no injuries. Mad Dog next car, Subaru !

Immigrant from Maine.
I thought Big Swill wasn’t going to post anymore? He didn’t even make it a week.

Big Swill is weak minded and lacks personal discipline.
 

Semi-elite R2R athlete

All-American
Sep 13, 2008
4,313
9,397
113
Aside from the Trump/MAGA vs Thune/Establishment BS and never getting Trump policy codified or open judiciary seats getting filled with friendlies, I think having all 3 chambers and not doing anything about Obamacare and actually taking the lead on the issue is my biggest disappointment with the last couple of years.
Trump has “The Great Healthcare Plan.”
Stop being a panican.
 

dtrain79

Heisman
Jul 13, 2006
49,142
27,907
113
Aside from the Trump/MAGA vs Thune/Establishment BS and never getting Trump policy codified or open judiciary seats getting filled with friendlies, I think having all 3 chambers and not doing anything about Obamacare and actually taking the lead on the issue is my biggest disappointment with the last couple of years.

I'm totally lost on the judicial stuff. Trump's nominees are all getting confirmed. Trump took forever to fill some district court seats (a bunch are now in Committee), will be interesting to see how many aren't confirmed in time, if any. But that would be on Trump for not having that stuff wrapped up by early summer.
 

rillaman

Heisman
May 10, 2009
18,785
12,011
113
At this point in time, medical insurance increases are arcoss the board. No such thing as Obamacare premiums rising independent of medical costs/insurance in general. Showing a picture of a fence sign doesn't change the dynamic.

I love when people who have no idea what they are talking about speak so confidently.

I sat in on a meeting just last week where the medical carriers told us how much their ACA plans are going up in 2027. I even posted on here that United Healthcare is going up 18%. They told us that was specifically for their ACA plans. 13% is the average among carriers still on the ACA marketplace. Kaiser is on the lower end, ~8%.

No such thing? Sure bud, the carriers don’t have a price target for ACA plans. Just throwing darts at a board. You sound like someone that has never worked for a private company in your life. Once again, you are proving that you can see 100% proof something is happening, and still deny it.
 
Last edited:

ILisBest

All-American
Jun 16, 2007
8,036
6,497
113
Aside from the Trump/MAGA vs Thune/Establishment BS and never getting Trump policy codified or open judiciary seats getting filled with friendlies, I think having all 3 chambers and not doing anything about Obamacare and actually taking the lead on the issue is my biggest disappointment with the last couple of years.
Probably a top three for me with congress not being completely behind Doge cuts and the Save Act.
 

ILisBest

All-American
Jun 16, 2007
8,036
6,497
113
I love when people who have no idea what they are talking about speak so confidently.

I sat in on a meeting just last week where the medical carriers told us how much their ACA plans are going up in 2027. I even posted on here that United Healthcare is going up 18%. They told us that was specifically for their ACA plans. 13% is the average among carriers still on the ACA marketplace. Kaiser is on the lower end, ~8%.

No such thing? Sure bud, the carriers don’t have a price target for ACA plans. Just throwing darts at a board. You sound like someone that has never worked for a private company in your life. Once again, you are proving that you can see 100% proof something is happening, and still deny it.
If Stone isn't speaking out of his backside, he is not speaking at all.
 
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