I hate these things.
It seems to never fail that we lose to a team that we experts think is a "weak" opponent, who turns out not to be weak, every time.
Last year it was Houston. This year it could be Marshall. They are very tough at home.
Most teams lose a game they probably should have won. Alabama got clobbered by Ole Miss last year. Both of the last two seasons the Cards came close to beating Clemson. I don't think anyone here would argue the Cards were on par with Clemson. I didn't think Houston would be as good as they were last season. Now I think they're our second toughest game next year. Looking back at the Houston game last season the Cards didn't play particularly badly. They just got beat by a better team who saw the Louisville game as one of their most important. They will have the same mindset next year. However, the Cards will also go into that game considering it to be one of the make-or-break games of the season.
I only see one certain win next season - Charlotte. I would be absolutely shocked if Louisville lost at home to Wake or to the self-proclaimed University of Kentucky. But in every other game this coming year the Cards could get beat and I wouldn't be that surprised.
But, and this is important, there isn't one game on the schedule where I would be shocked if Louisville won. I'll bet the folks in Lexington would love to be able to say that.