I have not really posted much on this site, but figured I would start.
My stuff is not for everyone. I take a statistical approach to analyzing wrestling. Most fans just want to assume everyone will wrestle to their ceiling. As a PSU board this will present much less of an issue as those two things are typically similar.
Anyway, it all starts with analyzing past tournament outcomes to come up with expected values. So, here goes.....
I spent a little time yesterday folding the 2025 results into the model.
First, expected points, including bonus, per seed. Not a lot of big changes, but the hump in the 26/27 range has begun to flatten out a bit.
The other interesting thing is, despite the change in scoring there was not a noticeable change in bonus. While it is higher than the previous two years, those years were very down. I am looking at 11 years of data (the 16 and 32 seed era), and across that range 2024/25 bonus scoring does not stand out.
My stuff is not for everyone. I take a statistical approach to analyzing wrestling. Most fans just want to assume everyone will wrestle to their ceiling. As a PSU board this will present much less of an issue as those two things are typically similar.
Anyway, it all starts with analyzing past tournament outcomes to come up with expected values. So, here goes.....
I spent a little time yesterday folding the 2025 results into the model.
First, expected points, including bonus, per seed. Not a lot of big changes, but the hump in the 26/27 range has begun to flatten out a bit.
The other interesting thing is, despite the change in scoring there was not a noticeable change in bonus. While it is higher than the previous two years, those years were very down. I am looking at 11 years of data (the 16 and 32 seed era), and across that range 2024/25 bonus scoring does not stand out.
