2026 Pre-Season Rankings

[Wrestleknownothing]

Let's do a little something different this year.

With all three services reporting their pre-season rankings I thought I would take a look at expectations.

Saturday Night's Alright For Fighting

Get a little action in.

Let's start with expected finalists. The three services see lineups and weights a bit different at this early stage, but who cares. Let's make some reckless predictions.

These are all the teams that have at least a 50/50 shot at one finalist in at least one service.



One thing to note is that Intermat and Wrestlestat only rank 9 PSU wrestlers, and yet they have higher expected finalists.

Everyone's All-American

Sticking with the same roster of teams, what does the prospect for All-Americans look like?





It is interesting to see Iowa State leapfrog Nebraska and Iowa here.

 

[pish69]

How you come up with expected finalist? Don’t we have like 5 or 6 guys ranked 1 or 2?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

How you come up with expected finalist? Don’t we have like 5 or 6 guys ranked 1 or 2?

Using data from the 16 and 33 seed era (2014-2025) I calculate the probability of place by seed (my model fits the data in multiple directions).

By assuming the rankings equal the seeds (they won't) I can calculate the odds of each possible outcome.

For example, the model spits out a #1 seed is expected to make the finals just under 73% of the time. So a #1 rank is good for 0.73 expected finalists. And a #2 seed makes the final about 48% of the time. And so on.

Then based on these rankings:



I calculate these expected finalists:

 

[PSU Mike]

Now do scoring wrestlers

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Now do scoring wrestlers

It is such a small sample size, why bother?

 

[AgSurfer]

It is such a small sample size, why bother?

Because if we come up short of 8, we're in big trouble!

 

[Atrain83]

Really won’t know anything until we see who the starters will be at 33/41/57.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Really won’t know anything until we see who the starters will be at 33/41/57.

right now we know we have possible finalist at all 3 weights ... that is something

 

[Corby2]

right now we know we have possible finalist at all 3 weights ... that is something

141 Davis/ Nagao aren't finalists but the other two 133 Blaze 157 Duke definitely are.

 

[amattaro]

141 Davis/ Nagao aren't finalists but the other two 133 Blaze 157 Duke definitely are.

 

[pish69]

141 Davis/ Nagao aren't finalists but the other two 133 Blaze 157 Duke definitely are.

Ono is

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

Because if we come up short of 8, we're in big trouble!

We could have 7 scoring 120 points, but it would be far better to have 8 scoring 115. It’s simple maths as the Brits would say

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

A little more detail for you @pish69

 

[El_Jefe]

We could have 7 scoring 120 points, but it would be far better to have 8 scoring 115. It’s simple maths as the Brits would say

Guns is British?

 

[Arivacalion]

Let's clear this up: Ono is a national champion regardless of what weight he goes at.

 

[Goggles Paisano]

Ono is

The rest of the Big 10 in as soon as a few months, the rest of the NCAA as early as March.

 

[El_Jefe]

Let's clear this up: Ono is a national champion regardless of what weight he goes at.

I'd like to think so, and he'll definitely be the best on feet, but we still have no idea how he'll be on bottom.

We'll find out a lot in the Lehigh dual against Crookham or Stanich. Crookham especially is very strong and tough on top. If he's at 141, Mendez is really good on top too.

If he's merely adequate on bottom, then yeah, he's a national champ. If he has Buckeye-level bottom defense, it'll be a lot harder.

 

[Corby2]

I'd like to think so, and he'll definitely be the best on feet, but we still have no idea how he'll be on bottom.

We'll find out a lot in the Lehigh dual against Crookham or Stanich. Crookham especially is very strong and tough on top. If he's at 141, Mendez is really good on top too.

If he's merely adequate on bottom, then yeah, he's a national champ. If he has Buckeye-level bottom defense, it'll be a lot harder.

And the plan was to RS unless he got 2 years. Blaze is the 133

 

[Arivacalion]

And the plan was to RS unless he got 2 years. Blaze is the 133

Has Cael confirmed that?

 

[BriantheLion]

right now we know we have possible finalist at all 3 weights ... that is something

141 Davis/ Nagao aren't finalists but the other two 133 Blaze 157 Duke definitely are.

Ono is

Duke OR Kasak likely finalist…

… vs each other if we could enter both!

 

[Joejitsu]

I feel like 3 potential finalist is really conservative for us. Mitch- Levi and Josh are the three minimum... but i dont think it is going out on a limb to suggest that Luke / Kasak(or PJ) and SVN could also be finalists. Heck... TBH... if Kasak, SVN or even Luke for that matter dont finish in the top 3 it would be a big disappointment... So 6 finalists is really a reasonable expectation!

 

[a_mshaffer]

I feel like 3 potential finalist is really conservative for us. Mitch- Levi and Josh are the three minimum... but i dont think it is going out on a limb to suggest that Luke / Kasak(or PJ) and SVN could also be finalists. Heck... TBH... if Kasak, SVN or even Luke for that matter dont finish in the top 3 it would be a big disappointment... So 6 finalists is really a reasonable expectation!

easier to say semi-finalist as some could easily get a bad draw and trip up in the semi's (Josh). 7-8 Semi's is reasonable (and now expected! )

 

[Joejitsu]

easier to say semi-finalist as some could easily get a bad draw and trip up in the semi's (Josh). 7-8 Semi's is reasonable (and now expected! )

agreed... can you imagine the meltdown brands or manning will have if we end up with 8 in the semis LOL

 

[Nitlion1986]

agreed... can you imagine the meltdown brands or manning will have if we end up with 8 in the semis LOL

If that is their meltdown point, then it is quite likely they will be puddles by the end of Friday morning's round.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

easier to say semi-finalist as some could easily get a bad draw and trip up in the semi's (Josh). 7-8 Semi's is reasonable (and now expected! )

I am traveling and didn't bring my computer. Now you are making me regret that decision. Oh well, I will give you the answer next week.

 

[El_Jefe]

easier to say semi-finalist as some could easily get a bad draw and trip up in the semi's (Josh). 7-8 Semi's is reasonable (and now expected! )

Throw in Cael's record in the semis, and you two are saying the same thing.

 

[SJP80]

Would it be more accurate to look at PSUs #1 and #2 seeds and calculate the % of times they become finalists as opposed to using the whole population? I suspect our #1 and #2's fail less than the overall population.

 

[ElDuce]

 

[ElDuce]

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Would it be more accurate to look at PSUs #1 and #2 seeds and calculate the % of times they become finalists as opposed to using the whole population? I suspect our #1 and #2's fail less than the overall population.

In theory yes, but in practice you wind up with very small samples sizes across the board, making it sketchy to model for most seeds. And remember that only two #1 seeds have failed to AA in the past decade, and one was from PSU. Though I am not sure how much that impacts the narrower top 2 criteria.

You also assume there will be no mean reversion, but last year we did see that in the semis.

I have calculated an estimate for the PSU bump in the past and will probably re-work that with 2025 results included.