40 Year Case Study: What Wins Championships? Raw Talent or Roster Continuity?

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Had a discussion with a fellow poster recently, where the poster continued to express doubt about the way Pope is trying to build his roster around the less talented players. According to the poster, if you want to win championships you need elite talent and Pope’s failure to bring in top 10 or top 25 blue chip talent speaks volumes about the program descending into irrelevance. I did a review of the five most recent national champions and honed in on the starting five players. I looked for a trend. What is the common thread amongst this data? Is there something we can learn about the traits found on national championship teams?

First, the lineups:

2025 Florida Gators

Will Richard (Returnee) - 3*
Reuben Chinyelu (Transfer) - 4*
Walter Clayton Jr. (Returnee) - 3*
Alijah Martin (Transfer) - 3*
Alex Condon (Returnee) - Unrated

2024 UConn Huskies

Tristen Newton (Returnee) - Unrated
Cam Spencer (Transfer) - Unrated
Alex Karaban (Returnee) - 4*
Donovan Klingan (Returnee) - 4*
Stephon Castle - (OAD) - 5* (10th)

2023 UConn Huskies

Adama Sanogo (Returnee) - 4*
Tristen Newton (Transfer) - Unrated
Alex Karaban (Freshman) - 4*
Jordan Hawkins (Returnee) - 4*
Andre Jackson Jr. (Returnee) - 4*

2022 Kansas Jayhawks

Ochai Agbaji (Returnee) - 3*
Christian Braun (Returnee) - 4*
Dajuan Harris Jr. (Returnee) - 4*
David McCormack (Returnee) - 4*
Jalen Wilson (Returnee) - 4*

2021 Baylor Bears

Jared Butler (Returnee) - 4*
MaCio Teague (Returnee) - 3*
Davion Mitchell (Returnee) - 4*
Mark Vital (Returnee) - 4*
Flo Thamba (Returnee) - 3*

2019 Virginia Cavaliers

Kyle Guy (Returnee) - 4*
De’Andre Hunter (Returnee) - 4*
Ty Jerome (Returnee) - 4*
Jack Salt (Returnee) - Unrated
Mamadi Diakite (Returnee) - 4*

2018 Villanova Wildcats

Jalen Brunson (Returnee) - 5* (20th)
Mikal Bridges (Returnee) - 4*
Omari Spellman (OAD) - 5* (18th)
Eric Paschall (Returnee) - 3*
Phil Booth (Returnee) - 4*

2017 North Carolina Tar Heels

Kennedy Meeks (Returnee) - 4*
Justin Jackson (Returnee) - 5* (11th)
Isaiah Hicks (Returnee) - 5* (16th)
Joel Berry II (Returnee) - 4*
Kenny Williams (Returnee) - 4*

2016 Villanova Wildcats

Josh Hart (Returnee) - 4*
Ryan Arcidiacono (Returnee) - 4*
Jalen Brunson (Freshman) - 5* (20th)
Kris Jenkins (Returnee) - 4*
Daniel Ochefu (Returnee) - 4*

2015 Duke Blue Devils

Quinn Cook (Returnee) - 4*
Justise Winslow (OAD) - 5* (12th)
Tyus Jones (OAD) - 5* (7th)
Jahlil Okafor (OAD) - 5* (1st)
Amile Jefferson (Returnee) - 4*

2014 UConn Huskies

Shabazz Napier (Returnee) - 4*
DeAndre Daniels (Returnee) - 5* (10th)
Ryan Boatright (Returnee) - 4*
Phillip Nolan (Returnee) - 3*
Lasan Kromah (Transfer) - Unrated
Amida Brimah (Freshman) - 3*
Niels Giffey (Returnee) - Unrated

2013 Louisville Cardinals

Peyton Siva (Returnee) - 4*
Russ Smith (Returnee) - 3*
Chane Behanan (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Wayne Blackshear (Returnee) - 4*
Gorgui Dieng (Returnee) - 4*

2012 Kentucky Wildcats

Anthony Davis (OAD) - 5* (2nd)
Marquis Teague (OAD) - 5* (5th)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (OAD) - 5* (3rd)
Doron Lamb (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Terrence Jones (Returnee) - 5* (13th)

2011 UConn Huskies

Kemba Walker (Returnee) - 5* (14th)
Jeremy Lamb (Freshman) - 4*
Alex Oriakhi (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Roscoe Smith (Freshman) - 4*
Charles Okwandu (Returnee) - 3*

2010 Duke Blue Devils

Jon Scheyer (Returnee) - 4*
Kyle Singler (Returnee) - 5* (5th)
Lance Thomas (Returnee) - 4*
Nolan Smith (Returnee) - 4*
Miles Plumlee (Returnee) - 3*

2009 North Carolina Tar Heels

Danny Green (Returnee) - 4*
Wayne Ellington (Returnee) - 5* (8th)
Deon Thompson (Returnee) - 4*
Ty Lawson (Returnee) - 5* (9th)
Tyler Hansbrough (Returnee) - 5* (10th)

2008 Kansas Jayhawks

Russell Robinson (Returnee) - 5* (27th)
Darrell Arthur (Returnee) - 5* (16th)
Mario Chalmers (Returnee) - 5* (12th)
Darnell Jackson (Returnee) - 4*
Brandon Rush (Returnee) - 5* (13th)

2007 Florida Gators

Taurean Green (Returnee) - 3*
Joakim Noah (Returnee) - 4*
Lee Humphrey (Returnee) - 3*
Corey Brewer (Returnee) - 4*
Al Horford (Returnee) - 4*

2006 Florida Gators

Taurean Green (Returnee) - 3*
Joakim Noah (Returnee) - 4*
Lee Humphrey (Returnee) - 3*
Corey Brewer (Returnee) - 4*
Al Horford (Returnee) - 4*

2005 North Carolina Tar Heels

Jawad Williams (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Jackie Manuel (Returnee)
Sean May (Returnee) - 5* (1st)
Raymond Felton Jr. (Returnee) - 5* (1st)
Rashad McCants (Returnee) - 4*

2004 UConn Huskies

Ben Gordon (Returnee)
Taliek Brown (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Josh Boone (Freshman) - 4*
Emeka Okafor (Returnee)
Denham Brown (Returnee) - 3*

2003 Syracuse Orange

Carmelo Anthony (OAD) - 5* (1st)
Hakim Warrick (Returnee)
Gerry McNamara (Freshman) - 4*
Kueth Duany (Returnee)
Craig Forth (Returnee)

2002 Maryland Terrapins

Juan Dixon (Returnee)
Steve Blake (Returnee)
Lonny Baxter (Returnee)
Byron Mouton (Returnee)
Chris Wilcox (Returnee)

2001 Duke Blue Devils

Jay Williams (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Shane Battier (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Mike Dunleavy Jr. (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Nate James (Returnee)
Carlos Boozer (Returnee) - Parade 1st

2000 Michigan State Spartans

Morris Peterson (Returnee)
Charlie Bell (Returnee)
Andre Hutson (Returnee)
A.J. Granger (Returnee)
Mateen Cleaves (Returnee) - Parade 1st

1999 Connecticut Huskies

Kevin Freeman (Returnee)
Ricky Moore (Returnee)
Khalid El-Amin (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Richard Hamilton (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Jake Voskuhl (Returnee)

1998 Kentucky Wildcats

Wayne Turner (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Jeff Sheppard (Returnee) - Parade 4th
Scott Padgett (Returnee)
Allen Edwards (Returnee)
Nazr Mohammed (Returnee)

1997 Arizona Wildcats

Michael Dickerson (Returnee)
Mike Bibby (Freshman) - Parade 1st
Bennett Davison (Transfer)
A.J. Bramlett (Returnee)
Jason Terry (Returnee)
Miles Simon (Returnee)

1996 Kentucky Wildcats

Tony Delk (Returnee) - Parade 4th
Antoine Walker (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Walter McCarty (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Derek Anderson (Transfer)
Anthony Epps (Returnee)

1995 UCLA Bruins

Ed O’Bannon Jr. (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Charles O’Bannon (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Tyus Edney (Returnee)
George Zidek (Returnee)
Toby Bailey Jr. (Freshman)

1994 Arkansas Razorbacks

Corliss Williamson (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Scotty Thurman (Returnee)
Corey Beck (Returnee)
Dwight Stewart (Returnee)
Clint McDaniel (Returnee)

1993 North Carolina Tar Heels

George Lynch III (Returnee)
Eric Montross (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Derrick Phelps (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Brian Reese (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Henrik Rodl (Returnee)

1992 Duke Blue Devils

Christian Laettner (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Thomas Hill (Returnee)
Brian Davis (Returnee)
Bobby Hurley (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Grant Hill (Returnee) - Parade 3rd

1991 Duke Blue Devils

Christian Laettner (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Bobby Hurley (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Grant Hill (Freshman) - Parade 3rd
Thomas Hill (Returnee)
Bill McCaffrey (Returnee) - Parade 4th

1990 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

Larry Johnson (Transfer) - Parade 1st
Stacey Augmon (Returnee)
Anderson Hunt (Returnee)
Greg Anthony (Returnee)
David Butler (Returnee) - Parade 3rd

1989 Michigan Wolverines

Glen Rice (Returnee) - Parade 4th
Terry Mills (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Rumeal Robinson (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Mike Griffin (Returnee)
Loy Vaught (Returnee)

1988 Kansas Jayhawks

Danny Manning (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Kevin Pritchard (Returnee)
Chris Piper (Returnee)
Milt Newton (Returnee)
Jeff Gueldner (Returnee)

1987 Indiana Hoosiers

Steve Alford (Returnee)
Daryl Thomas (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Dean Garrett (Transfer)
Keith Smart (Transfer)
Rick Calloway (Returnee) - Parade 2nd

1986 Louisville Cardinals

Billy Thompson (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Milt Wagner Jr. (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Pervis Ellison (Freshman)
Herbert Crook (Returnee)
Jeff Hall (Returnee)

1985 Villanova Wildcats

Ed Pinckney (Returnee) - Parade 4th
Harold Pressley (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Gary McLain (Returnee)
Dwight Wilbur (Returnee)
Dwayne McClain (Returnee)

Using 24/7 Sports and Rivals as resources, I looked for high school rankings of each starter to determine how many of the players were five star blue chippers. Out of a sample of 25 players, only one player would meet the criteria of being 5*, which was 2024 UConn’s Stephon Castle. For this set of data, which is admittedly a small sample size, a national champion over the last five years has consisted of 4% blue chip players. What I found was four star players were a very common thread amongst these lineups.

On the other hand, returnees made up 19 of the 25 players within the sample. To be a returnee, obviously a player must have been a roster member of the national championship team, as well as the prior season. National champions over the last five seasons’ starting lineups are made up of mostly returnees at a 76 percent rate. Zero teams in that timespan won a national championship without having at least THREE members of their starting lineup being a returnee.


(As a note, I will daily add more data to this thread and provide more insight on this topic. I seek to eventually have data going as far back as I can on this topic over time).

Were any of you surprised by any of the information? I look forward to some of your thoughts.



UPDATE:
TOTAL STARTERS IN SAMPLE: 203
TOTAL NON-OAD FRESHMAN: 11 (5.4%)
TOTAL OAD FRESHMAN: 9 (4.4%)
TOTAL COMBINED FRESHMAN: 20 (9.9%)
TOTAL RETURNEES: 173 (85.2%)
TOTAL 1ST YEAR TRANSFERS: 10 (4.9%)
TOTAL 1ST YEAR IN PROGRAM: 30 (14.8%)
TOTAL SAMPLE RIVALS ERA: 103
TOTAL 5 STAR RIVALS ERA: 28 (27.2%)
TOTAL 4 STAR RIVALS ERA: 51 (49.5%)
TOTAL 3 STAR RIVALS ERA: 17 (16.5%)
TOTAL UNRATED RIVALS ERA: 7 (6.8%)
TOTAL SAMPLE PRE-RIVALS ERA: 100
TOTAL PARADE 1ST PRE-RIVALS: 18 (18.0%)
TOTAL PARADE 2ND PRE-RIVALS: 10 (10.0%)
TOTAL PARADE 3RD PRE-RIVALS: 7 (7.0%)
TOTAL NON-PARADE PRE-RIVALS: 65 (65.0%)

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

Both and more

 

[UKWildcats1987]

You need both at UK. All you have to do is look at all our final four teams and title teams the past 50 seasons.

 

[Ukbrassowtipin]

It's not really star power or not, it's all transfer portal now. A 5 star freshman may have the better career long term but a 24 year old 3 star is going to be better right now in college....stronger, knows how to play college basketball, etc

One and done doesn't work anymore

 

[yoshukai]

Had a discussion with a fellow poster recently, where the poster continued to express doubt about the way Pope is trying to build his roster around the less talented players. According to the poster, if you want to win championships you need elite talent and Pope’s failure to bring in top 10 or top 25 blue chip talent speaks volumes about the program descending into irrelevance. I did a review of the five most recent national champions and honed in on the starting five players. I looked for a trend. What is the common thread amongst this data? Is there something we can learn about the traits found on national championship teams?

First, the lineups:

2025 Florida Gators

Will Richard (Returnee) - 3*
Reuben Chinyelu (Transfer) - 4*
Walter Clayton Jr. (Returnee) - 3*
Alijah Martin (Transfer) - 3*
Alex Condon (Returnee) - Unrated



2024 UConn Huskies

Tristen Newton (Returnee) - Unrated
Cam Spencer (Transfer) - Unrated
Alex Karaban (Returnee) - 4*
Donovan Klingan (Returnee) - 4*
Stephon Castle - (OAD) - 5* (10th)



2023 UConn Huskies

Adama Sanogo (Returnee) - 4*
Tristen Newton (Transfer) - Unrated
Alex Karaban (Freshman) - 4*
Jordan Hawkins (Returnee) - 4*
Andre Jackson Jr. (Returnee) - 4*



2022 Kansas Jayhawks

Ochai Agbaji (Returnee) - 3*
Christian Braun (Returnee) - 4*
Dajuan Harris Jr. (Returnee) - 4*
David McCormack (Returnee) - 4*
Jalen Wilson (Returnee) - 4*



2021 Baylor Bears

Jared Butler (Returnee) - 4*
MaCio Teague (Returnee) - 3*
Davion Mitchell (Returnee) - 4*
Mark Vital (Returnee) - 4*
Flo Thamba (Returnee) - 3*


Using 24/7 Sports and Rivals as resources, I looked for high school rankings of each starter to determine how many of the players were five star blue chippers. Out of a sample of 25 players, only one player would meet the criteria of being 5*, which was 2024 UConn’s Stephon Castle. For this set of data, which is admittedly a small sample size, a national champion over the last five years has consisted of 4% blue chip players. What I found was four star players were a very common thread amongst these lineups.

On the other hand, returnees made up 19 of the 25 players within the sample. To be a returnee, obviously a player must have been a roster member of the national championship team, as well as the prior season. National champions over the last five seasons’ starting lineups are made up of mostly returnees at a 76 percent rate. Zero teams in that timespan won a national championship without having at least THREE members of their starting lineup being a returnee.


(As a note, I will daily add more data to this thread and provide more insight on this topic. I seek to eventually have data going as far back as I can on this topic over time).

Were any of you surprised by any of the information? I look forward to some of your thoughts.

Good work! I will be interested to see if this continues. With the transfer portal going like it is , how many teams will have 3 starters returning? lol

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

You need both at UK. All you have to do is look at all our final four teams and title teams the past 50 seasons.

We’re you surprised to find that championship teams since 2021 consisted of four times as many zero star players as there were five star players? Interesting and I didn’t expect that!

 

[bucsrule8872]

Retention and development.

That is the key, IMHO.

Looking at this data, and all the returnees, kind of backs that up.

 

[yoshukai]

You need both at UK. All you have to do is look at all our final four teams and title teams the past 50 seasons.

I believe things have changed quite a bit on the college landscape since 2015 though.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Good work! I will be interested to see if this continues. With the transfer portal going like it is , how many teams will have 3 starters returning? lol

I have a hypothesis on this. Roster continuity seems to be so crucial that I expect the amount of teams that can win the title will be a smaller sample going forward. In other words, whoever can somehow keep their roster together will have a greater chance to win than they ever had before. We will see though!

 

[Untouchables22]

I think especially when evaluating roster continuity everything changed with the introduction of the transfer portal. I actually think things are so different now that you can’t even compare data from the non-portal era. But it’s an interesting project thank you for your hard work!

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I think especially when evaluating roster continuity everything changed with the introduction of the transfer portal. I actually think things are so different now that you can’t even compare data from the non-portal era. But it’s an interesting project thank you for your hard work!

I will be adding much more to it over the coming weeks and we can crack the code as a fanbase (it’s already cracked but still). Should be fun!

 

[Anon1679859502]

Really good guards

 

[Untouchables22]

I will be adding much more to it over the coming weeks and we can crack the code as a fanbase (it’s already cracked but still). Should be fun!

I’m thinking I should place a futures bet on Purdue for next year lol

 

[yoshukai]

Retention and development.

That is the key, IMHO.

Looking at this data, and all the returnees, kind of backs that up.

I agree. The combination of players improving along with building on the foundation from the previous year outweighs 5* talent .

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I’m thinking I should place a futures bet on Purdue for next year lol

Makes you think Houston and Purdue could both be a real threat next year

 

[EliteBlue]

The cop out is both

But continuity is the great equalizer to raw freshman talent.

Even Cal, the “king” of elite young talent and roster turnover, needed the lockout to force Jones and Lamb back in addition to the Senior Swiss Army knife, Darius Miller, to win in 2012.

Cals next best team, 2015, benefited from the twins, WCS, Pouthress all being major players…not just role guys.

Point is, it takes over half of your primary contributors being multi year college players.

Aaron Torres had a stat on his podcast saying that all the last 5 champions had 4 of their top 6 scorers from the previous year return.

 

[Untouchables22]

The cop out is both

But continuity is the great equalizer to raw freshman talent.

Even Cal needed the lockout to force Jones and Lamb back in addition to the Senior Swiss Army knife, Darius Miller, to win in 2012.

Cals next best team, 2015, benefited from the twins, WCS, Pouthress all being major players…not just role guys.

Point is, it takes over half of your primary contributors being multi year college players.

Aaron Torres had a stat on his podcast saying that all the last 5 champions had 4 of their top 6 scorers from the previous year return.

I truly think this is why Pope highly prioritized portal guys with multiple years of eligibility left. It cost us Lewis allegedly but it was still a great strategy.

 

[yoshukai]

I’m thinking I should place a futures bet on Purdue for next year lol

When the transfer portal and recruiting is all said and done for this year, it will be interesting to see which teams retain the most holdovers . See how they did this past year, and you might have a pretty good strategy.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

The cop out is both

But continuity is the great equalizer to raw freshman talent.

Even Cal, the “king” of elite young talent and roster turnover, needed the lockout to force Jones and Lamb back in addition to the Senior Swiss Army knife, Darius Miller, to win in 2012.

Cals next best team, 2015, benefited from the twins, WCS, Pouthress all being major players…not just role guys.

Point is, it takes over half of your primary contributors being multi year college players.

Aaron Torres had a stat on his podcast saying that all the last 5 champions had 4 of their top 6 scorers from the previous year return.

Honestly I went into it thinking it’s both as well. Strangely if you go check my post history you’ll see me saying talent and continuity over and over. Honestly, so far the data doesn’t bear it out that much. Four stars definitely seem like the way to go, but 16% of the starters were literally unranked and only 4% were 5*. Seems continuity seems to be trumping talent for the most part.

 

[bucsrule8872]

It probably changed around 2016, I would guess.

 

[BMR1987]

The common deniminator seems to be having a starting lineup of multiple 3 and 4 star guys who have years of college experience, and often at least two years in the system for the majority of the team. There is still merit to outtalenting teams (when you have the right coach and team chemistry in place), but in the portal era it's becoming more and more about fit and less about the star rankings.

And even at that, both teams in this year's national championship game had multiple close games in the tournament where they could've lost, both as early as the second round. Florida, even though they were the best team IMO, still needed Clayton Jr. to step up as one of the most clutch players I've ever seen in order to win it all.

I think more than anything, at least when talent and coaching is close to equal, it's proving what a crapshoot the tournament actually is.

 

[EliteBlue]

Honestly I went into it thinking it’s both as well. Strangely if you go check my post history you’ll see me saying talent and continuity over and over. Honestly, so far the data doesn’t bear it out that much. Four stars definitely seem like the way to go, but 16% of the starters were literally unranked and only 4% were 5*. Seems continuity seems to be trumping talent for the most part.

I’d agree. And it’s typically the 4 or 3 stars that are willing to stick around….the. You combine it with proven portal upperclassmen and the occasional too 5 high school kid

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2019 Virginia Cavaliers

Kyle Guy (Returnee) - 4*
De’Andre Hunter (Returnee) - 4*
Ty Jerome (Returnee) - 4*
Jack Salt (Returnee) - Unrated
Mamadi Diakite (Returnee) - 4*

 

[ukcatz12]

we can crack the code as a fanbase

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2019 Virginia Cavaliers

Kyle Guy (Returnee) - 4*
De’Andre Hunter (Returnee) - 4*
Ty Jerome (Returnee) - 4*
Jack Salt (Returnee) - Unrated
Mamadi Diakite (Returnee) - 4*

2018 Villanova Wildcats

Jalen Brunson (Returnee) - 5* (20th)
Mikal Bridges (Returnee) - 4*
Omari Spellman (OAD) - 5* (18th)
Eric Paschall (Returnee) - 3*
Phil Booth (Returnee) - 4*

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2018 Villanova Wildcats

Jalen Brunson (Returnee) - 5* (20th)
Mikal Bridges (Returnee) - 4*
Omari Spellman (OAD) - 5* (18th)
Eric Paschall (Returnee) - 3*
Phil Booth (Returnee) - 4*

2017 North Carolina Tar Heels

Kennedy Meeks (Returnee) - 4*
Justin Jackson (Returnee) - 5* (11th)
Isaiah Hicks (Returnee) - 5* (16th)
Joel Berry II (Returnee) - 4*
Kenny Williams (Returnee) - 4*

 

[mhs1964]

People often forget how many contributing players we had in 2012. Nothing beats good returning players who have advanced in the tournament only to be beaten. They return with a determined mindset.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2017 North Carolina Tar Heels

Kennedy Meeks (Returnee) - 4*
Justin Jackson (Returnee) - 5* (11th)
Isaiah Hicks (Returnee) - 5* (16th)
Joel Berry II (Returnee) - 4*
Kenny Williams (Returnee) - 4*

2016 Villanova Wildcats

Josh Hart (Returnee) - 4*
Ryan Arcidiacono (Returnee) - 4*
Jalen Brunson (Freshman) - 5* (20th)
Kris Jenkins (Returnee) - 4*
Daniel Ochefu (Returnee) - 4*

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I mean, some of this is simply recruiting rankings getting things wrong.. and/or, that player making some serious growth. We keep hearing that Clayton was a 3*, but he's just not that right now. He's a 5* talent who probably will get drafted in the 1st round. Honestly I sort of find this talking point silly. It's like, yes recruiting rankings missed an evaluation on a 16-year old HS player, it happens. But it feels disingenuous to say that Golden "won with 3-star talent".. clayton was clearly better than his profile said, and that was well before he ever got to Florida.

I think a lot of thisbis just a crap shoot. Sometimes you land the right amount of talent, experience and mental fortitude. That could be all 5-star freshman or 6th year seniors or something in the middle.

Which is why im happy we have Pope. Hes a coach who seems to work well with players and has an offense that wins games. Makes the right adjustments. If we can get him some talent and experience, he can make things happen

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I mean, some of this is simply recruiting rankings getting things wrong.. and/or, that player making some serious growth. We keep hearing that Clayton was a 3*, but he's just not that right now. He's a 5* talent who probably will get drafted in the 1st round. Honestly I sort of find this talking point silly. It's like, yes recruiting rankings missed an evaluation on a 16-year old HS player, it happens. But it feels disingenuous to say that Golden "won with 3-star talent".. clayton was clearly better than his profile said, and that was well before he ever got to Florida.

I think a lot of thisbis just a crap shoot. Sometimes you land the right amount of talent, experience and mental fortitude. That could be all 5-star freshman or 6th year seniors or something in the middle.

Which is why im happy we have Pope. Hes a coach who seems to work well with players and has an offense that wins games. Makes the right adjustments. If we can get him some talent and experience, he can make things happen

I think that’s the point though. It doesn’t matter what the perceived talent is. Good coaches will find the right talent and if they can keep them together they can win. That’s why getting blue chippers isn’t the end all be all

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2016 Villanova Wildcats

Josh Hart (Returnee) - 4*
Ryan Arcidiacono (Returnee) - 4*
Jalen Brunson (Freshman) - 5* (20th)
Kris Jenkins (Returnee) - 4*
Daniel Ochefu (Returnee) - 4*

2015 Duke Blue Devils

Quinn Cook (Returnee) - 4*
Justise Winslow (OAD) - 5* (12th)
Tyus Jones (OAD) - 5* (7th)
Jahlil Okafor (OAD) - 5* (1st)
Amile Jefferson (Returnee) - 4*

 

[bucsrule8872]

2015 Duke Blue Devils

Quinn Cook (Returnee) - 4*
Justise Winslow (OAD) - 5* (12th)
Tyus Jones (OAD) - 5* (7th)
Jahlil Okafor (OAD) - 5* (1st)
Amile Jefferson (Returnee) - 4*

That’s the last time a somewhat Freshman dominated team won a title. And they had veteran leadership. And UK was the favorite all year and came up just short with four returnees starting. And Wisconsin also had a team of returnees that season.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

That’s the last time a somewhat Freshman dominated team won a title. And they had veteran leadership. And UK was the favorite all year and came up just short with four returnees starting. And Wisconsin also had a team of returnees that season.

We are certainly looking at the last days of the OAD era on that one. What’s interesting is that was a full decade ago and Duke is still trying with that same method. I didn’t realize OAD was over until about 2022 myself.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2015 Duke Blue Devils

Quinn Cook (Returnee) - 4*
Justise Winslow (OAD) - 5* (12th)
Tyus Jones (OAD) - 5* (7th)
Jahlil Okafor (OAD) - 5* (1st)
Amile Jefferson (Returnee) - 4*

2014 UConn Huskies

Shabazz Napier (Returnee) - 4*
DeAndre Daniels (Returnee) - 5* (10th)
Ryan Boatright (Returnee) - 4*
Phillip Nolan (Returnee) - 3*
Lasan Kromah (Transfer) - Unrated
Amida Brimah (Freshman) - 3*
Niels Giffey (Returnee) - Unrated


A little messier here as you had four players that had about the same amount of starts so I included them all.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2014 UConn Huskies

Shabazz Napier (Returnee) - 4*
DeAndre Daniels (Returnee) - 5* (10th)
Ryan Boatright (Returnee) - 4*
Phillip Nolan (Returnee) - 3*
Lasan Kromah (Transfer) - Unrated
Amida Brimah (Freshman) - 3*
Niels Giffey (Returnee) - Unrated


A little messier here as you had four players that had about the same amount of starts so I included them all.

2013 Louisville Cardinals

Peyton Siva (Returnee) - 4*
Russ Smith (Returnee) - 3*
Chane Behanan (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Wayne Blackshear (Returnee) - 4*
Gorgui Dieng (Returnee) - 4*

 

[mebeblue2]

It's not really star power or not, it's all transfer portal now. A 5 star freshman may have the better career long term but a 24 year old 3 star is going to be better right now in college....stronger, knows how to play college basketball, etc

One and done doework sn't anymore

it works right now the only difference is the OAD players are 23 years old now

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2013 Louisville Cardinals

Peyton Siva (Returnee) - 4*
Russ Smith (Returnee) - 3*
Chane Behanan (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Wayne Blackshear (Returnee) - 4*
Gorgui Dieng (Returnee) - 4*

2012 Kentucky Wildcats

Anthony Davis (OAD) - 5* (2nd)
Marquis Teague (OAD) - 5* (5th)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (OAD) - 5* (3rd)
Doron Lamb (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Terrence Jones (Returnee) - 5* (13th)

 

[BBNinSC_rivals62411]

National championship rosters are a perfect storm of the combined skills of several players.
I believe Coach Pope builds his team as individual pieces that fit together, not just the most talented guys you can get.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2012 Kentucky Wildcats

Anthony Davis (OAD) - 5* (2nd)
Marquis Teague (OAD) - 5* (5th)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (OAD) - 5* (3rd)
Doron Lamb (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Terrence Jones (Returnee) - 5* (13th)

2011 UConn Huskies

Kemba Walker (Returnee) - 5* (14th)
Jeremy Lamb (Freshman) - 4*
Alex Oriakhi (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Roscoe Smith (Freshman) - 4*
Charles Okwandu (Returnee) - 3*

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

it works right now the only difference is the OAD players are 23 years old now

Well…data doesn’t show that so far. Even in the portal era championship rosters are mostly returnees.