A Totally Expected Stat for this Cinderella Season…

[Dugan15]

Per KenPom, the following is our eFG% ((FGM + (.5*3ptFGM))/FGA) and national rank for eFG% for the last 23 years:

2001 - 47.0% (249)
2002 - 49.2% (153)
2003 - 49.7% (152)
2004 - 50.8% (94)
2005 - 51.4% (72)
2006 - 51.7% (72)
2007 - 49.9% (175)
2008 - 51.5% (107)
2009 - 52.6% (51)
2010 - 52.0% (49)
2011 - 53.5% (20)
2012 - 53.6% (19). ** Now, I am not sure if you folks know this, but John Shurna was a good offensive basketball player.
2013 - 47.4% (230)
***************
2014 - 46.1% (315)
2015 - 50.4% (99)
2016 - 52.5% (57)
2017 - 49.7% (206)
2018 - 49.5% (228)
2019 - 46.6% (327). ** Ick
2020 - 46.9% (293)
2021 - 50.3% (163)
2022 - 49.0% (223)
2023 - 47.4% (306)

Our 3rd worst ranking in eFG% in the last 23 years and here we are, playing a home game for solo 2nd in the Big Ten after Valentine’s Day. Makes total sense.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Wow

 

[IdahoAlum]

Which tells you what an absolute unicorn this season is. And how utterly unsustainable all of this probably is. So enjoy it while you can.

 

[Sec_112]

My guess at an explanation ...

A) You can get away with a lower shooting percentage if you're a better rebounding team. Better rebounding than the early years of your comparison allows more possessions, shot attempts and scoring even if they don't have a great shooting percentage.

B) Add steals and better defense this year to that mix for more possessions.

C) The obvious: This isn't a great 3-pt shooting team that's going to bump up that eFG%.

Let's bump up this thread sometime this summer, and I'll get the numbers to show how wrong I am.

Interesting stuff.

 

[NUCat320]

NU is making 13.5 FT per game, which is about 125th in the nation.

Scanning year by year stats for a decade or so on basketballreference, previous figures have been between 10.5 and 12.9.

Additionally, it appears that there are fewer FTM as the three pointer has become so focal — I didn’t notice another season in the top half of the country.

 

[CSCatFan1]

Hey @Dugan15…miss those posts where you show our players rankings on the all-time NU leaderboard. Are there any significant milestones that were reached or are within reach this season?

 

[timbfischer]

I would like to see the history of the "luck" catergory.

 

[GatoLouco]

There has to be a correlation to one or more stats elsewhere. This is a big WTF number

 

[SDakaGordie]

Which tells you what an absolute unicorn this season is. And how utterly unsustainable all of this probably is. So enjoy it while you can.

Great defense is not a unicorn. We all said earlier this season that the main difference this year was improved defense, and that has propelled us to continue doing well. That’s some evidence of sustainability.

 

[Catreporter]

In last night's Wisconsin-Michigan game, I don't think the Badgers made a field goal, in the last seven minutes while a 12-point lead melted to one and they still won by getting to the foul line and making them and by playing good defense and keeping Michigan off the boards.

 

[NJCat]

In last night's Wisconsin-Michigan game, I don't think the Badgers made a field goal, in the last seven minutes while a 12-point lead melted to one and they still won by getting to the foul line and making them and by playing good defense and keeping Michigan off the boards.

It was actually over 10 minutes. Their last bucket was at 10:45. They finished 0-14 from the field the rest of the game.

 

[Catreporter]

I guess the moral of that tale is that shooting and offense are streaky but defense and rebounding are a constant (AND, you need to make your free throws which Wisconsin did NOT do in the two games they lost to the Cats)

 

[CappyNU]

So I dug deep into the stats, looking at our games against the high-major teams we've played plus Liberty. As expected, the story of this year has been the defense. When we have held teams below average efficiency on defense, we are 10-1, with the lone loss being the rock fight against Auburn in Mexico. When we have been above the average, we are 2-6, with the only wins being home against Wisconsin and at Indiana.

The biggest contributor to this stat has been our defensive rebounding. When we allow teams to get 30% or fewer of their offensive boards, we are 10-0, and only 2-7 when teams get more boards, with the 2 wins being at OSU and again at Indiana. Another big stat - when we allow teams to shoot less than 40% from 3, we are 11-2, with the two losses being Auburn and Michigan at home, when we had no legs due to the schedule and couldn't score. When teams shoot 40% or more, we are 1-5, with the lone win being, you guessed it, at Indiana. As for turnovers, when we force turnovers on 20% of possessions or higher, we are 8-2, with the two losses being Auburn and at Michigan, when we force fewer than 20%, we are 4-5, with the wins being both Wisconsin games, at MSU and at Georgetown.

The offensive side is not as clear-cut. Efficiency-wise, when we score 1 point per possession or more, we are 10-3, with the losses being at Iowa, at Michigan and Rutgers. In all three of those games, we allowed them to shoot above 40% from 3 and rebound >30% of their misses. When our efficiency is less than 1 point per possession, we are 2-4, with the wins being at Wisconsin and Purdue. We held Purdue to their least-efficient performance of the season on defense. When our effective FG% has been 49% or higher, we are 10-2, with the losses being at Iowa and Rutgers, and when we have shot worse than 49%, we are 2-5, with the wins being Illinois and Purdue. In both of those games we held them to their least-efficient offensive performance of the season.

We'll see how tonight's game goes given the odd nature of the last one at IU.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1_rivals]

Great defense is not a unicorn. We all said earlier this season that the main difference this year was improved defense, and that has propelled us to continue doing well. That’s some evidence of sustainability.

Generally speaking, when you are that low in eFG%, success will be unsustainable in the long run. That being said, this current team has several things going for them to counter that glaring weakness in addition to being an elite defensive unit.

1) Good guard play
2) Free throw shooting
3) Experience
4) Commitment to each other

Those are the types of things that counter bottom of the barrel eFG%. The ‘Cats also have several players that theoretically have the potential to get hot from outside in Berry, Boo, Audige and Beran.

If that happens, look out. You see in it in the tournament nearly every year. Teams that can play defense and then start to light it up from outside go far.

Hope the ‘Cats are saving the heater for March.

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

Which tells you what an absolute unicorn this season is. And how utterly unsustainable all of this probably is. So enjoy it while you can.

Probably, mostly. But defense is sustainable. Keep up defensive performance and we won't suck anymore, probably ever. See McCall / Hankwitz

 

[GatoLouco]

Generally speaking, when you are that low in eFG%, success will be unsustainable in the long run. That being said, this current team has several things going for them to counter that glaring weakness in addition to being an elite defensive unit.

1) Good guard play
2) Free throw shooting
3) Experience
4) Commitment to each other

Those are the types of things that counter bottom of the barrel eFG%. The ‘Cats also have several players that theoretically have the potential to get hot from outside in Berry, Boo, Audige and Beran.

If that happens, look out. You see in it in the tournament nearly every year. Teams that can play defense and then start to light it up from outside go far.

Hope the ‘Cats are saving the heater for March.

I wonder if low turnovers can sometimes lead to lower eFG%, ending up having to take tough shots more often instead of taking the turnover.

 

[JournCat]

Those are the types of things that counter bottom of the barrel eFG%. The ‘Cats also have several players that theoretically have the potential to get hot from outside in Berry, Boo, Audige and Beran.

If that happens, look out. You see in it in the tournament nearly every year. Teams that can play defense and then start to light it up from outside go far.

Berry is shooting just 30% from 3 after going 38% last year. Unless he's injured, it seems reasonable to expect a lot more from him.

 

[TheC]

Hey @Dugan15…miss those posts where you show our players rankings on the all-time NU leaderboard. Are there any significant milestones that were reached or are within reach this season?

# of Times that a Player Makes TheC yell "No, no, don't ....... yeah!!!!!!" at his TV

Chase Audige........................23
Tre Demps.................................22
Ryan Young...............................18
Mohammed Hachad................14
Boo Buie................................12
Jitim Young.................................9
Alex Olah.....................................8
Aron Molnar................................2
Matt Nicholson.......................1 (on a free throw)

 

[hdhntr1]

Per KenPom, the following is our eFG% ((FGM + (.5*3ptFGM))/FGA) and national rank for eFG% for the last 23 years:

2001 - 47.0% (249)
2002 - 49.2% (153)
2003 - 49.7% (152)
2004 - 50.8% (94)
2005 - 51.4% (72)
2006 - 51.7% (72)
2007 - 49.9% (175)
2008 - 51.5% (107)
2009 - 52.6% (51)
2010 - 52.0% (49)
2011 - 53.5% (20)
2012 - 53.6% (19). ** Now, I am not sure if you folks know this, but John Shurna was a good offensive basketball player.
2013 - 47.4% (230)
***************
2014 - 46.1% (315)
2015 - 50.4% (99)
2016 - 52.5% (57)
2017 - 49.7% (206)
2018 - 49.5% (228)
2019 - 46.6% (327). ** Ick
2020 - 46.9% (293)
2021 - 50.3% (163)
2022 - 49.0% (223)
2023 - 47.4% (306)

Our 3rd worst ranking in eFG% in the last 23 years and here we are, playing a home game for solo 2nd in the Big Ten after Valentine’s Day. Makes total sense.

In last night's Wisconsin-Michigan game, I don't think the Badgers made a field goal, in the last seven minutes while a 12-point lead melted to one and they still won by getting to the foul line and making them and by playing good defense and keeping Michigan off the boards.

They did not make a FG in the last 11 or 12 minutes of the game. last 10 pts were all FTs

 

[hdhntr1]

Berry is shooting just 30% from 3 after going 38% last year. Unless he's injured, it seems reasonable to expect a lot more from him.

He has pretty much disappeared on O for the last 6 (since NEB game) games. That said, against Purdue he was leading Cat rebounder with 7 and also had 3 steals and a couple assists so he still contributes.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Generally speaking, when you are that low in eFG%, success will be unsustainable in the long run. That being said, this current team has several things going for them to counter that glaring weakness in addition to being an elite defensive unit.

1) Good guard play
2) Free throw shooting
3) Experience
4) Commitment to each other

Those are the types of things that counter bottom of the barrel eFG%. The ‘Cats also have several players that theoretically have the potential to get hot from outside in Berry, Boo, Audige and Beran.

If that happens, look out. You see in it in the tournament nearly every year. Teams that can play defense and then start to light it up from outside go far.

Hope the ‘Cats are saving the heater for March.

Good points. I would just say that, in the Tourney year in 2017, the table shows we were ranked 206 in eFG%.

But also hoping for “the heater” as well!

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

He has pretty much disappeared on O for the last 6 (since NEB game) games. That said, against Purdue he was leading Cat rebounder with 7 and also had 3 steals and a couple assists so he still contributes.

I know this is heresy, but according to Evan Miya, who has a stats website and creates analytics similar to Torvik and Ken Pomeroy...

Ty Berry is our best defender and the 5th best defender in the Big Ten. Followed by Audige (12), Nicholson (18) and Beran (21), then it drops off.

Since Audige plays so many minutes, this makes it difficult to evaluate him (numerically) relative to his teammates, because there's just not much data when Audige is on the bench.

https://evanmiya.com/#:~:text=BPR: Bayesian Performance Rating is,over the last 30 days.

 

[hdhntr1]

I know this is heresy, but according to Evan Miya, who has a stats website and creates analytics similar to Torvik and Ken Pomeroy...

Ty Berry is our best defender and the 5th best defender in the Big Ten. Followed by Audige (12), Nicholson (18) and Beran (21), then it drops off.

Since Audige plays so many minutes, this makes it difficult to evaluate him (numerically) relative to his teammates, because there's just not much data when Audige is on the bench.

https://evanmiya.com/#:~:text=BPR: Bayesian Performance Rating is,over the last 30 days.

They are all now D focussed. They also have different roles in that D. Both are pretty important but Audige is more out front. He is also very important at moving the ball around. So both things can be true. Chase being most important defender and very important overall player and Berry having best stats. Not a bad problem to have

 

[hdhntr1]

Good points. I would just say that, in the Tourney year in 2017, the table shows we were ranked 206 in eFG%.

But also hoping for “the heater” as well!

You does the best you can with what you got