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Aike’s getting closer to meaning something model update - 11/23/24

A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,314
45,922
90
Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09
 
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H

HerrosHeroes

Heisman
Aug 16, 2018
27,234
38,039
0
Aike said:
Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09
Click to expand...
You do you Aike! Love it!
I see the Zags up there at #1. Man Im so excited for that gm in a few weeks!
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,314
45,922
90
Montana81 said:
Gotta be a lot more fun to do this now that we have a coach that places value on more of the areas that impact the rankings.
Click to expand...

Cal had us in the mix quite a bit, but it definitely hasn’t been fun watching us fail to live up to our potential these past few years.

We were up to number 2 last year after we drilled Miami, and Cal gradually squirted all of that away.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
43,104
76,780
113
Aike said:
Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09
Click to expand...
Love the title.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
43,104
76,780
113
Aike said:
Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09
Click to expand...
Wonder if Pitt will be a dark horse this year?
 
Dead Cat Bounce

Dead Cat Bounce

All-Conference
Jan 8, 2003
2,636
4,558
113
Aike, I’d be curious to know what rating systems aside from yours you believe are most predictively accurate. Also, wasn’t there a composite site that listed your ratings alongside others? I thought it was Massey but I can’t find the same composite page there that I remember from before.
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,314
45,922
90
Dead Cat Bounce said:
Aike, I’d be curious to know what rating systems aside from yours you believe are most predictively accurate. Also, wasn’t there a composite site that listed your ratings alongside others? I thought it was Massey but I can’t find the same composite page there that I remember from before.
Click to expand...

Massey Composite Index

I was included in this in previous seasons, but I haven’t been taking the time to publish my results recently.

To punt a bit, I would say that all models are basically different data points, so I think this composite method is a great way of looking at things.

As far as better or worse than mine, I optimize for the tournament in a way that most don’t, so I think mine is slightly better at predicting results in tournament games.

Also, lots of the early season models use a certain amount of guesswork. That has become more challenging with the flood of players transferring each season, imo.

For that reason, I think my model has a sweet spot around midseason heading into conference play. I have a better grasp of how good or bad some of the mid majors are - the ones who spend November/December on the road in hostile environments.

By around February, everyone kind of catches up. It’s hard to get much of an edge over Kenpom, or Sagarin, or Vegas by the time everyone is crunching only current season data.
 
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Dead Cat Bounce

Dead Cat Bounce

All-Conference
Jan 8, 2003
2,636
4,558
113
Aike said:
Massey Composite Index

I was included in this in previous seasons, but I haven’t been taking the time to publish my results recently.

To punt a bit, I would say that all models are basically different data points, so I think this composite method is a great way of looking at things.

As far as better or worse than mine, I optimize for the tournament in a way that most don’t, so I think mine is slightly better at predicting results in tournament games.

Also, lots of the early season models use a certain amount of guesswork. That has become more challenging with the flood of players transferring each season, imo.

For that reason, I think my model has a sweet spot around midseason heading into conference play. I have a better grasp of how good or bad some of the mid majors are - the ones who spend November/December on the road in hostile environments.

By around February, everyone kind of catches up. It’s hard to get much of an edge over Kenpom, or Sagarin, or Vegas by the time everyone is crunching only current season data.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I’m grateful for this thoughtful reply.
 
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E

EliteBlue

Heisman
Mar 27, 2009
16,751
20,269
0
As always, great work, Aike.

Looks like statistically we should roll through Clemson unscathed to set up another battle of top 5 undefeateds. Looking forward to it.
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,314
45,922
90
EliteBlue said:
As always, great work, Aike.

Looks like statistically we should roll through Clemson unscathed to set up another battle of top 5 undefeateds. Looking forward to it.
Click to expand...

Clemson will be our first true road game though?

I’ll need to check how they’re modeling. Don’t have it in front of me.
 
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K

kennyskywalker34

All-American
Jan 22, 2013
4,528
7,453
0
Cal
Aike said:
Arkansas isn’t bad, and I would expect them to play lights out a time or two. Hopefully not against us.
Click to expand...
Cal's last several teams have played lights out 3-4 games a season. UK had at least 2 big time wins each of the last few years. Only to follow the wins up with terrible losses.
I definitely think UK beats them, but I think it will be a close game. Hope I'm wrong and it's a 20 point blowout.
@Aike since you been doing this. How many of you're top 10 teams when the regular season ended have made the final 4?
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,314
45,922
90
kennyskywalker34 said:
Cal
Cal's last several teams have played lights out 3-4 games a season. UK had at least 2 big time wins each of the last few years. Only to follow the wins up with terrible losses.
I definitely think UK beats them, but I think it will be a close game. Hope I'm wrong and it's a 20 point blowout.
@Aike since you been doing this. How many of you're top 10 teams when the regular season ended have made the final 4?
Click to expand...

Would have to go back and look, but it happens pretty routinely. The champion has always come from the top 10 since I’ve been doing this. Usually the champ is in the top few teams.

To be fair, there is normally at least one surprise FF team, but often it was a team that was trending really well over the last month of the season.
 
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K

kennyskywalker34

All-American
Jan 22, 2013
4,528
7,453
0
Aike said:
Would have to go back and look, but it happens pretty routinely. The champion has always come from the top 10 since I’ve been doing this. Usually the champ is in the top few teams.

To be fair, there is normally at least one surprise FF team, but often it was a team that was trending really well over the last month of the season.
Click to expand...
Good stuff. I always look forward to it. Yeah there is almost always one surprise final 4 team and some years a couple.
That's what makes March Madness the greatest sporting event IMO.
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,314
45,922
90
kennyskywalker34 said:
Good stuff. I always look forward to it. Yeah there is almost always one surprise final 4 team and some years a couple.
That's what makes March Madness the greatest sporting event IMO.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. That’s part of why it’s so fun to try to predict this thing - because nobody really can.

You can just hope to do a little better than the next guy, and one random play in the first round can wreck your whole bracket.
 
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RichardCory

RichardCory

Senior
Nov 28, 2007
1,074
841
113
Aike said:
Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09
Click to expand...

got any of them model updates?

I'm curious what all these feast week matchups have done for your model. I have to think this week was a smorgasbord of good data points not seen in a typical preconference game week. Regardless, thanks for sharing your work with us.
 
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RichardCory

RichardCory

Senior
Nov 28, 2007
1,074
841
113
Aike said:
Been down with a bad back for the past few days. Will try to update soon.
Click to expand...
Sorry to hear that, no worries on the update then. I've had back trouble at times and it is not a fun experience. Hope it straightens out for you soon and on it's own.
 
W

westerncat

Heisman
Feb 19, 2012
15,923
20,891
0
Back problems are no fun, had to have an operation on mine years ago and am doing fine now. Aike hope you feel better soon.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
43,104
76,780
113
Aike said:
Here’s how things are looking 5 games in. Still some pretty gaudy numbers from several teams. Thankfully we’re one of them, so seems worth reporting.

Reminder that 6 is a perfect score in this model.

1. Gonzaga 5.133
2. Auburn 5.128
3. Houston 4.16
4. Tennessee 3.95
5. Cincinnati 3.81
6. Kentucky 3.72
7. Duke 3.57
8. Pittsburgh 3.24
9. UConn 3.10
10. Penn St 3.08
11. Marquette 2.77
12. Mississippi St 2.75
13. BYU 2.74
14. Kansas 2.73
15. Ohio St 2.61
16. St John’s 2.48
17. North Carolina 2.46
18. Baylor 2.244
19. Texas Tech 2.243
20. Alabama 2.23
21. Michigan 2.13
22. Nevada 1.85
23. Xavier 1.80
24. Memphis 1.77
25. Florida 1.75
26. Vandy 1.74
29. Arkansas 1.58
30. Indiana 1.55
33. Missouri 1.539
34. Mississippi 1.537
41. Texas 1.30
42. Oklahoma 1.26
46. Louisville 1.12
48. Georgia 1.11
49. Texas A&M 1.09
Click to expand...
Crazy how great the Zags and Auburn look and the Zags even have a loss.
 
*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
43,104
76,780
113
Aike said:
Cal had us in the mix quite a bit, but it definitely hasn’t been fun watching us fail to live up to our potential these past few years.

We were up to number 2 last year after we drilled Miami, and Cal gradually squirted all of that away.
Click to expand...
Yeah he loved to go away from what worked last year.
 
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