Latest model with 1 day of basketball remaining before we are locked:
1. Auburn 4.10
2. Duke 3.70
3. Florida 3.10
4. Tennessee 3.06
5. Gonzaga 2.92
6. Houston 2.89
7. Iowa St 2.68
8. Arizona 2.59
9. Texas Tech 2.55
10. Alabama 2.39
11. Maryland 2.26
12. UConn 2.19
13. St John’s 2.15
14. Kentucky 2.13
15. Kansas 2.10
16. Missouri 2.09
17. BYU 2.01
18. Michigan St. 1.98
19. Clemson 1.97
20. UCLA 1.93
21. Mississippi St 1.92
22. Purdue 1.85
23. Michigan 1.77
24. Marquette 1.69
25. Mississippi 1.65
26. Arkansas 1.61
27. Georgia 1.59
28. Oregon 1.57
29. Louisville 1.55
30. Xavier 1.52
31. Vanderbilt 1.51
32. Wisconsin 1.46
33. North Carolina 1.39
37. Oklahoma 1.29
40. Texas A&M 1.26
48. Texas 1.06
My unscientific view is that the potential champion pool stretches all the way down to Michigan St. at 18.
My most likely champion comes from that Auburn, Duke, Florida group at the top. Gun to my head I would pick Florida, then Auburn, then Duke, assuming Florida comes out of today healthy.
My next tier would be Houston, Tennessee, Alabama, and St. John’s, with Alabama most likely from this tier. This is if and only if Grant Nelson is healthy. Like the way they have been trending and love their Final Four experience.
Third tier for me would be Arizona, Gonzaga, Texas Tech. I don’t think anyone should be shocked if these teams make Final Four runs, and they are all capable of stealing a title with some luck. I would include Iowa St here if healthy. Not sure where that stands.
I think all of the rest of the top 18 can win it with a crazy tournament and some luck. Think they all have decent Final Four potential with the right draw.
The logic behind that is that the weakest champion I’ve had since starting this modeling was Kansas in 2022 who came in at 1.99. My feeling is that anyone on that 2+ line is a Sweet 16 quality team, and once you make it to the second weekend anything can happen in a random tournament. I’m giving Michigan St a nudge into that 2+ range due to coaching and experience.
Now watch Wisconsin win it all.
1. Auburn 4.10
2. Duke 3.70
3. Florida 3.10
4. Tennessee 3.06
5. Gonzaga 2.92
6. Houston 2.89
7. Iowa St 2.68
8. Arizona 2.59
9. Texas Tech 2.55
10. Alabama 2.39
11. Maryland 2.26
12. UConn 2.19
13. St John’s 2.15
14. Kentucky 2.13
15. Kansas 2.10
16. Missouri 2.09
17. BYU 2.01
18. Michigan St. 1.98
19. Clemson 1.97
20. UCLA 1.93
21. Mississippi St 1.92
22. Purdue 1.85
23. Michigan 1.77
24. Marquette 1.69
25. Mississippi 1.65
26. Arkansas 1.61
27. Georgia 1.59
28. Oregon 1.57
29. Louisville 1.55
30. Xavier 1.52
31. Vanderbilt 1.51
32. Wisconsin 1.46
33. North Carolina 1.39
37. Oklahoma 1.29
40. Texas A&M 1.26
48. Texas 1.06
My unscientific view is that the potential champion pool stretches all the way down to Michigan St. at 18.
My most likely champion comes from that Auburn, Duke, Florida group at the top. Gun to my head I would pick Florida, then Auburn, then Duke, assuming Florida comes out of today healthy.
My next tier would be Houston, Tennessee, Alabama, and St. John’s, with Alabama most likely from this tier. This is if and only if Grant Nelson is healthy. Like the way they have been trending and love their Final Four experience.
Third tier for me would be Arizona, Gonzaga, Texas Tech. I don’t think anyone should be shocked if these teams make Final Four runs, and they are all capable of stealing a title with some luck. I would include Iowa St here if healthy. Not sure where that stands.
I think all of the rest of the top 18 can win it with a crazy tournament and some luck. Think they all have decent Final Four potential with the right draw.
The logic behind that is that the weakest champion I’ve had since starting this modeling was Kansas in 2022 who came in at 1.99. My feeling is that anyone on that 2+ line is a Sweet 16 quality team, and once you make it to the second weekend anything can happen in a random tournament. I’m giving Michigan St a nudge into that 2+ range due to coaching and experience.
Now watch Wisconsin win it all.
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