Aike’s Tourney Predictor - 01/04/2026

[Aike]

Oh boy.

Happy New Year. I guess?

Going to get this out of the way early. I think Nate Oats, in all of his insightful snark, nailed us for what we are yesterday. A paper tiger.

Stat-padding team play against cupcakes, ball sticking no offense running vs. anyone with a pulse.

So taken as a whole, the stats are lying.

We are still sitting 18th in my model. But, and it’s a big but, just looking at the past 2 games we basically played like a team in the 60s.

Before posting the latest, one other correction. People have been asking me how Michigan compares to teams historically. I erroneously said that they were the best I’ve seen since starting this modeling in 2018.

Crazy enough, Auburn was actually a bit better last year at the exact point. How soon we forget.

All kinds of caveats to that. I made some adjustments based on recent data that de-emphasized blocked shots in the model. Auburn almost definitely got a bump from that last year.

But still, Auburn last year was at least on par with Michigan this year heading into conference play. Auburn cooled off some, but not that much. At the start of the tournament, Auburn/Duke/Florida were the obvious title picks with Houston and Alabama as possibilities.

TL/DR. Michigan great. Still hope for others (though maybe not us.)

Watch out for Purdue, who is streaking up the ratings.

The Latest:

1. Michigan 4.59
2. Gonzaga 3.68
3. Purdue 3.64
4. Arizona 3.57
5. Vanderbilt 3.52
6. Iowa St 3.36
7. Duke 3.21
8. UConn 3.08
9. Iowa 2.63
10. Tennessee 2.53
11. BYU 2.521
12. Alabama 2.520
13. Louisville 2.47
14. Michigan St 2.13
15. Houston 2.04
16. Arkansas 2.03
17. NC St 1.94
18. Kentucky 1.89
19. Indiana 1.88
20. Auburn 1.85
21. Utah St 1.81
22. Texas Tech 1.80
23. Illinois 1.792
24. SMU 1.7907
25. Virginia 1.7904
26. Kansas 1.73
27. St John’s 1.69
30. Florida 1.53
31. North Carolina 1.51
33. Georgia 1.45

 

[coalBucket]

I’m just not seeing anything at all with this team. Play the best 5 until the wheels fall off and maybe we look better. Little to no faith in Pope or the players at this point to win a game or even make the tourney. Sucks to suck.

 

[Aike]

I’m just not seeing anything at all with this team. Play the best 5 until the wheels fall off and maybe we look better. Little to no faith in Pope or the players at this point to win a game or even make the tourney. Sucks to suck.

I don’t have much faith in Pope. I thought he did a really good job last year on short notice, patching that team together and getting to a Sweet 16.

There were signs of problems. Ohio St., Bama in the SEC Tournament, definitely the last game vs. UT.

But I thought he deserved an A grade overall. A- at worst. I thought with a full off season and more returners we would be better.

Pope is a can’t see the forest for the trees guy. How could he have had all of that time over Christmas to practice and still put that on the floor?

He seems so obsessed with making this work the way he thinks it should work, that he’s losing the plot completely. He’s blown almost every game that matters. We are looking like a non-tournament team or one of those classic 8/9s who limp out in round one or get served up to Michigan/Arizona etc.

 

[Cats_2010]

We have 6 total players that should factor into the starting lineup. Lowe/Aberdeen/williams/oweh/JQ/ and Mo. 3 of those are not starting which is coaching malpractice. Lowe/williams/JQ/and Mo have to start. Oweh and Aberdeen are interchangeable as both bring good defense but different offensive styles. Oweh better getting to the rim and Aberdeen the better perimeter scorer when he doesn’t force.

Any of those 6 allow for a formidable defense. Bring Moreno in for JQ, garrison for MO, Johnson for Lowe (for short stretches), chandler for oweh/williams/aberdeen, but not as wholesale substitutions. 3 of the first 6 players should be on the court at all times. Limit substitutions, give your best lineups the majority of the minutes. Stop having bad lineups on the floor throughout the game. Pope is practically shitting the bed right now. The weight of the job has crushed his ability to coach effectively.

 

[Ukwazoo3]

He seems so obsessed with making this work the way he thinks it should work, that he’s losing the plot completely.

Yes, this is what has surprised me. He's just getting started here and all we've heard is how much he loves the university and how smart he is. So why is he not working hard to adapt...and doing everything necessary to win?

 

[Aike]

We have 6 total players that should factor into the starting lineup. Lowe/Aberdeen/williams/oweh/JQ/ and Mo. 3 of those are not starting which is coaching malpractice. Lowe/williams/JQ/and Mo have to start. Oweh and Aberdeen are interchangeable as both bring good defense but different offensive styles. Oweh better getting to the rim and Aberdeen the better perimeter scorer when he doesn’t force.

Any of those 6 allow for a formidable defense. Bring Moreno in for JQ, garrison for MO, Johnson for Lowe (for short stretches), chandler for oweh/williams/aberdeen, but not as wholesale substitutions. 3 of the first 6 players should be on the court at all times. Limit substitutions, give your best lineups the majority of the minutes. Stop having bad lineups on the floor throughout the game. Pope is practically shitting the bed right now. The weight of the job has crushed his ability to coach effectively.

I’m basically aligned with this, but I would keep it even tighter. I would never bring BG in for Mo. I would slide Kam to the 4 and play a little smaller when Mo is out.

Mostly play 7 guys. JQ and Moreno split the 5 probably 28/12. Use BG for foul trouble.

Chandler/Noah/Jasper fighting for any minutes 8/9 deep.

That’s who we are. If we want to get anywhere we need to tighten up.

 

[Damage_inc]

I don’t know what these numbers mean. But I know our players aren’t very good. Very good chance we don’t make the tournament

 

[I’m The Village Idiot]

Yes, this is what has surprised me. He's just getting started here and all we've heard is how much he loves the university and how smart he is. So why is he not working hard to adapt...and doing everything necessary to win?

There are different types of intelligence. I wonder if Pope is really good at big picture stuff and struggles with the day-to-day stuff. He kills the macro, but seems really inept when it comes to the micro. I think some of it may be overthinking. I bet you could pull aside a hundred random D1 coaches and ask them to give you a five minute scout and gameplan for Alabama —- while it wouldn’t be perfect, most of them would be better than what we brought to Tuscaloosa yesterday. Sounds harsh, but I’m just trying to be honest about what I saw.

 

[Cats_2010]

I’m basically aligned with this, but I would keep it even tighter. I would never bring BG in for Mo. I would slide Kam to the 4 and play a little smaller when Mo is out.

Mostly play 7 guys. JQ and Moreno split the 5 probably 28/12. Use BG for foul trouble.

Chandler/Noah/Jasper fighting for any minutes 8/9 deep.

That’s who we are. If we want to get anywhere we need to tighten up.

I think a motivated BG can bring good things to the table but he has to bring it at all times. Tighter rotation for this team is better than depth but pope just keeps playing too many players and different rotations with his odd substitution patterns. He’s over coaching looking for a solution when the solution is tightening the rotation whether that be 7 or 8 players.

 

[akaukswoosh]

Play the best 5 until the wheels fall off and maybe we look better.
Common sense.

 

[Aike]

Hey guys - shameless plug, since basketball is in shambles.

I designed a new word game. Been testing it over the past few days. Let me know if you like that sort of thing and I’ll drop a link for you to try it out.

 

[I’m The Village Idiot]

Hey guys - shameless plug, since basketball is in shambles.

I designed a new word game. Been testing it over the past few days. Let me know if you like that sort of thing and I’ll drop a link for you to try it out.

Drop a link, brother. I’ll try it

 

[Aike]

Drop a link, brother. I’ll try it

WordUpmanship - Daily Word Stacking Puzzle

Deceptively simple daily word-stacking puzzle

www.wordupmanship.com

 

[theBlues]

There are different types of intelligence. I wonder if Pope is really good at big picture stuff and struggles with the day-to-day stuff. He kills the macro, but seems really inept when it comes to the micro. I think some of it may be overthinking. I bet you could pull aside a hundred random D1 coaches and ask them to give you a five minute scout and gameplan for Alabama —- while it wouldn’t be perfect, most of them would be better than what we brought to Tuscaloosa yesterday. Sounds harsh, but I’m just trying to be honest about what I saw.

This kind of reminds me of Mark Stoops. Stoops was, imo, not smart enough to be a good strategist but he knew every play or offensive or defensive system. He was not short on factual knowledge of the game, just not able to mold that knowledge into a cohesive system.

 

[Phil_The_Music2]

Yes, this is what has surprised me. He's just getting started here and all we've heard is how much he loves the university and how smart he is. So why is he not working hard to adapt...and doing everything necessary to win?

He's really not much different from Cal at this point. They both were stubborn and determined to do it their way come hell or high water. Both refuse to start their best players.

 

[I’m The Village Idiot]

WordUpmanship - Daily Word Stacking Puzzle

Deceptively simple daily word-stacking puzzle

www.wordupmanship.com

Never tried one of these before. I got 2000 something points. Nowhere close to the record lol. I’m probably too dumb to win at this haha. Definitely a well-developed game. For morons like me, the instructions being more prominent could be a plus, but I can see people finding that addictive. You did a good job, everyone should try it.

 

[Aike]

Never tried one of these before. I got 2000 something points. Nowhere close to the record lol. I’m probably too dumb to win at this haha. Definitely a well-developed game. For morons like me, the instructions being more prominent could be a plus, but I can see people finding that addictive. You did a good job, everyone should try it.

Thanks! You are far from a moron haha.

Instruction placement is mostly a function of using available space. That said, I’ll probably add a short tutorial video.

I think it’s simple once it clicks in, but can definitely take a minute to click in!

 

[I’m The Village Idiot]

Thanks! You are far from a moron haha.

Instruction placement is mostly a function of using available space. That said, I’ll probably add a short tutorial video.

I think it’s simple once it clicks in, but can definitely take a minute to click in!

I found myself kind of cheating since I don’t know much about the game. I would consider using base words and then using those base words with suffixes and prefixes a lot. No idea if that was a good strategy but it felt right lol

 

[Aike]

I found myself kind of cheating since I don’t know much about the game. I would consider using base words and then using those base words with suffixes and prefixes a lot. No idea if that was a good strategy but it felt right lol

There’s no cheating! Get the highest score you can any way you can get it.

Word changes daily so it’s a new puzzle every day.

And you can one-shot it or try 20 times to get the high score. Whatever works.

 

[Mad Max]

I don’t know what these numbers mean. But I know our players aren’t very good. Very good chance we don’t make the tournament

This team will have exceeded my expectation if they are in the tournament.


not a good sign for year 2…

 

[Cats_2010]

Never tried one of these before. I got 2000 something points. Nowhere close to the record lol. I’m probably too dumb to win at this haha. Definitely a well-developed game. For morons like me, the instructions being more prominent could be a plus, but I can see people finding that addictive. You did a good job, everyone should try it.

2000 points? I made it all the way through and got 276 points

 

[Cats_2010]

There’s no cheating! Get the highest score you can any way you can get it.

Word changes daily so it’s a new puzzle every day.

And you can one-shot it or try 20 times to get the high score. Whatever works.

Really cool game.

 

[Aike]

Really cool game.

Appreciate it!