Aike’s Tourney Predictor - 12/14/25

[Aike]

Haven’t had the heart to run any numbers this season until now. Seeing as we at least had a pulse last night, let’s take a look at how things stack up halfway through December.

Reminder - this score represents the expected number of tournament victories for each team, measured against tournament teams from recent history. So a 2 is roughly a Sweet 16 level team, and 6 would be a perfect score, championship lock.

1. Michigan 4.58
2. Gonzaga 4.34
3. Iowa St 3.77
4. Arizona 3.57
5. Duke 3.41
6. Vanderbilt 3.22
7. UConn 2.93
8. Purdue 2.86
9. Louisville 2.66
10. BYU 2.63
11. Alabama 2.58
12. Michigan St 2.41
13. Iowa 2.213
14. Indiana 2.209
15. Houston 2.16
16. Tennessee 2.14
17. Kentucky 2.08
18. NC St 2.06
19. Arkansas 2.02
20. St John’s 1.97
21. Georgia 1.87
22. Nebraska 1.82
23. Miami 1.77
24. St Louis 1.682
25. Auburn 1.679
26. Florida 1.66
28. Kansas 1.62
37. North Carolina 1.30

Usual caveat that this is really early and the modeling gets sharper throughout the season.

Also that this model predicts likelihood of tournament success. That correlates with best team, but can differ in some ways.

If you see anything truly bizarre, please point it out. Sometimes there are data issues early in the year as teams change.

 

[ComebackCats98]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. I’m surprised Kentucky is that high. Georgia sneaking along quietly

 

[Aike]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. I’m surprised Kentucky is that high. Georgia sneaking along quietly

I honestly haven’t paid any attention to Georgia. We are a mixed bag, obviously. A combination of horrible, pretty bad, and mediocre efforts vs. good teams. Lights out when we were supposed to be.

I still say that get JQ playing and play backs against the wall defense is our only shot. Do that every single night and I still think we have the talent to be a top 10 team. We have definitely dug a hole, and I’m not confident that we’ll ever be consistent enough offensively to do great things. But it isn’t out of the realm of possibility to be pretty good.

 

[Old Blue Fart]

With me recovering from this rotary cuff/ bicep surgery this year, the one thing I have is time on my hands and watching TV has gotten old very fast.
With that, I have watched lots of basketball and lots of teams I could two cents about but it is what it is. Arizona and Michigan have looked heads above everyone so far for me.
Even with a cold streak within a game, these two seem weather the storm better than anyone else I have seen. Quite frankly, they are fun to watch.

As much as I hate to say this, UL looks to have something this year and before anyone says they live and die by the 3, that is not all they do well.

I am with you Aike, let's see what happens when we get everyone playing and see where we are come February/March.

 

[Aike]

With me recovering from this rotary cuff/ bicep surgery this year, the one thing I have is time on my hands and watching TV has gotten old very fast.
With that, I have watched lots of basketball and lots of teams I could two cents about but it is what it is. Arizona and Michigan have looked heads above everyone so far for me.
Even with a cold streak within a game, these two seem weather the storm better than anyone else I have seen. Quite frankly, they are fun to watch.

As much as I hate to say this, UL looks to have something this year and before anyone says they live and die by the 3, that is not all they do well.

I am with you Aike, let's see what happens when we get everyone playing and see where we are come February/March.

It’s been a problem of the Pope era that we come out flat way too often and depend on making adjustments to get us through. I’d like to see us figure out how to come out strong every night. Effort is non-negotiable.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

That’s a big number next to Michigan. One of the highest I remember seeing.

 

[phunterd]

For some reason, the models all think highly of us. Perhaps an indicator of hope to somewhat salvage the season and get to the second weekend of the tournament.

 

[Seth_C]

For some reason, the models all think highly of us. Perhaps an indicator of hope to somewhat salvage the season and get to the second weekend of the tournament.

Well, 3 of our 4 losses are pretty much top 10 in every ranking on earth, so maybe that explains it a bit. Basically, our fans on this forum are whiny, emotional, and prone to over react wildly. Math, less so.

 

[Anon1751335390]

For some reason, the models all think highly of us. Perhaps an indicator of hope to somewhat salvage the season and get to the second weekend of the tournament.

Against the half of the schedule vs sub par teams, we’ve played like an elite team.

Against the half of the schedule vs top 20 teams, we aren’t so good.

The ratings thus put us somewhere between elite and NIT lol.

 

[One2Three]

That’s a big number next to Michigan. One of the highest I remember seeing.

Mitch piddle-f*cked around with Calipari and then he left and Dusty May took the Michigan job. Not like he would’ve hired him even if he were available.

 

[chroix]

Earlier in the season… heart aike.

but seriously do you have these posted anywhere? Would be interesting to overlay these with the final results and run it through something like NotebookLM and see how it could be tweaked.

 

[akaukswoosh]

Haven’t had the heart to run any numbers this season until now. Seeing as we at least had a pulse last night, let’s take a look at how things stack up halfway through December.

Reminder - this score represents the expected number of tournament victories for each team, measured against tournament teams from recent history. So a 2 is roughly a Sweet 16 level team, and 6 would be a perfect score, championship lock.

1. Michigan 4.58
2. Gonzaga 4.34
3. Iowa St 3.77
4. Arizona 3.57
5. Duke 3.41
6. Vanderbilt 3.22
7. UConn 2.93
8. Purdue 2.86
9. Louisville 2.66
10. BYU 2.63
11. Alabama 2.58
12. Michigan St 2.41
13. Iowa 2.213
14. Indiana 2.209
15. Houston 2.16
16. Tennessee 2.14
17. Kentucky 2.08
18. NC St 2.06
19. Arkansas 2.02
20. St John’s 1.97
21. Georgia 1.87
22. Nebraska 1.82
23. Miami 1.77
24. St Louis 1.682
25. Auburn 1.679
26. Florida 1.66
28. Kansas 1.62
37. North Carolina 1.30

Usual caveat that this is really early and the modeling gets sharper throughout the season.

Also that this model predicts likelihood of tournament success. That correlates with best team, but can differ in some ways.

If you see anything truly bizarre, please point it out. Sometimes there are data issues early in the year as teams change.

How much does your system say we beat St. John's by?

 

[Kentucky15]

Well, 3 of our 4 losses are pretty much top 10 in every ranking on earth, so maybe that explains it a bit. Basically, our fans on this forum are whiny, emotional, and prone to over react wildly. Math, less so.

Yes because Kentucky basketball is all about never sniffing final fours, being 0-4 against all good competition, getting blown out in many of our best games, currently picked to finish 7th in the SEC, no championships in anything, and terrible recruiting classes coming.

Are y’all even UK fans or have you gotten lost on the way to Morehead? You want me to start positing math or do You prefer to stay in pretend mode?

 

[Crestcat]

Well, 3 of our 4 losses are pretty much top 10 in every ranking on earth, so maybe that explains it a bit. Basically, our fans on this forum are whiny, emotional, and prone to over react wildly. Math, less so.

Like 13 year old girls.

 

[Aike]

That’s a big number next to Michigan. One of the highest I remember seeing.

Yeah not too shabby.

 

[Aike]

Earlier in the season… heart aike.

but seriously do you have these posted anywhere? Would be interesting to overlay these with the final results and run it through something like NotebookLM and see how it could be tweaked.

I haven’t published them anywhere for a couple years. I still have the site Tourneypredictor.com. Haven’t updated the certificate lately.

 

[Aike]

How much does your system say we beat St. John's by?

Pretty close to pick em right now. Cats by half a point or less?

 

[Pensacola_Cat_Fan]

A win against IU at home sure carries a lot of weight.

 

[Aike]

A win against IU at home sure carries a lot of weight.

Carries the same amount of weight as all the other games.

 

[preston-lemasterpiece]

Well, 3 of our 4 losses are pretty much top 10 in every ranking on earth, so maybe that explains it a bit. Basically, our fans on this forum are whiny, emotional, and prone to over react wildly. Math, less so.

therein lies the problem. Other teams are playing to win ball games and we're doing math equations over here