Angst about the B1G (w Pomeroy rankings)

[ricko6543211]

I think some of you folks are overstating the decline of the B1G a bit. Admittedly we are no longer clearly the #1 conference like we were the past 2 years, but we're still not too far behind the Big 12 and ACC. Consider Pomeroy rankings (listing top 60 here, NU's current ranking is 56, 8th in the conference).

- Big 10 (8 teams): Purdue 3, MSU 7, Iowa 13, Maryland 19, Indiana 24, Michigan 35, Wisconsin 40, NU 56
- ACC (10 teams): Virginia 1, Duke 5, Louisville 10, UNC 11, Miami 12, ND 21, Pitt 27, FSU 34, Cuse 43, Clemson 60
- Big 12 (6 teams, though out of only 10): Oklahoma 2, Kansas 6, WV 14, Baylor 17, ISU 18, Texas 42
- Pac 12 (8): Arizona 15, Oregon 28, USC 36, UCLA 37, Utah 41, Oregon St 48, Colorado 52, Cal 57
- SEC (5): Kentucky 8, Vandy 16, Florida 23, S Car 31, A&M 33

So I would probably rank the conferences as 1 ACC, 2 Big 12, 3 Big 10, 4 Pac 12, 5 SEC.

I know that Pomeroy is partially influenced by preseason rankings still and the B1G looks worse by RPI. Another part of it though is that many of the better B1G teams have negative in KP's "luck category" - so the exclusion of margin of victory from RPI is also part of what's hurting us. Also, as the conference season progresses the winning records of B1G opponents will help. Eg 8 of the top 20 in the current RPI are from mid-majors (or not even mid), and that includes Xavier at 1, and GW, Ark Little-Rock, Chattanooga. Outside of Xavier, I don't think there's much of a chance any of those will be in the top 20 later in the year. And no way Xavier stays at 1.

I think the likely number of teams we get to the tournament is ~6, maybe 7, and less likely 5. And there are at least 6 teams that could count as quality wins, with Wiscy and OSU possibly adding themselves to that list if they get their act together). So I stand by my conference record target of 10-8, preferably with 1 or more win in BTT. Though obviously there's a lot to play out before then and it depends on individual resumes. A shame that Iowa didn't hold on against ISU. And let's hope a few of our conference brethren get a couple more marquee wins as they conclude their OOC schedules.

(PS the weakness of the bottom 6 of our conference should give you an idea that Pomeroy isn't blindly flattering the B1G based on preseason projections- OSU 75, Illinois 108, Nebby 109, Minny 134, Penn St 148, Rutgers 254 ugh)

 

[clarificationcat]

I think some of you folks are overstating the decline of the B1G a bit. Admittedly we are no longer clearly the #1 conference like we were the past 2 years, but we're still not too far behind the Big 12 and ACC. Consider Pomeroy rankings (listing top 60 here, NU's current ranking is 56, 8th in the conference).

- Big 10 (8 teams): Purdue 3, MSU 7, Iowa 13, Maryland 19, Indiana 24, Michigan 35, Wisconsin 40, NU 56
- ACC (10 teams): Virginia 1, Duke 5, Louisville 10, UNC 11, Miami 12, ND 21, Pitt 27, FSU 34, Cuse 43, Clemson 60
- Big 12 (6 teams, though out of only 10): Oklahoma 2, Kansas 6, WV 14, Baylor 17, ISU 18, Texas 42
- Pac 12 (8): Arizona 15, Oregon 28, USC 36, UCLA 37, Utah 41, Oregon St 48, Colorado 52, Cal 57
- SEC (5): Kentucky 8, Vandy 16, Florida 23, S Car 31, A&M 33

So I would probably rank the conferences as 1 ACC, 2 Big 12, 3 Big 10, 4 Pac 12, 5 SEC.

I know that Pomeroy is partially influenced by preseason rankings still and the B1G looks worse by RPI. Another part of it though is that many of the better B1G teams have negative in KP's "luck category" - so the exclusion of margin of victory from RPI is also part of what's hurting us. Also, as the conference season progresses the winning records of B1G opponents will help. Eg 8 of the top 20 in the current RPI are from mid-majors (or not even mid), and that includes Xavier at 1, and GW, Ark Little-Rock, Chattanooga. Outside of Xavier, I don't think there's much of a chance any of those will be in the top 20 later in the year. And no way Xavier stays at 1.

I think the likely number of teams we get to the tournament is ~6, maybe 7, and less likely 5. And there are at least 6 teams that could count as quality wins, with Wiscy and OSU possibly adding themselves to that list if they get their act together). So I stand by my conference record target of 10-8, preferably with 1 or more win in BTT. Though obviously there's a lot to play out before then and it depends on individual resumes. A shame that Iowa didn't hold on against ISU. And let's hope a few of our conference brethren get a couple more marquee wins as they conclude their OOC schedules.

(PS the weakness of the bottom 6 of our conference should give you an idea that Pomeroy isn't blindly flattering the B1G based on preseason projections- OSU 75, Illinois 108, Nebby 109, Minny 134, Penn St 148, Rutgers 254 ugh)

I think that the very top of the B1G is as strong as ever. Maryland has a really good/Final 4 type team. I thought they were very good last year and they added the transfer from Duke and a top 10 recruit. Michigan State looks very strong and Purdue is better than last year. I haven't seen Iowa play but they are obviously playing well. Indiana can't play defense but they will finish in the top 5 in the conference and have the potential to be as good as the top teams. Michigan has talent and a good coach. Ohio State (and perhaps Wisconsin) will get better as the season progresses. Ohio State always has top recruiting classes. If 6 teams go, it will probably be between us and Michigan. If 7 teams go, we will need to finish above Wisconsin and Ohio State for the first time in a long, long time.

 

[NJCat83588]

I think that the very top of the B1G is as strong as ever. Maryland has a really good/Final 4 type team. I thought they were very good last year and they added the transfer from Duke and a top 10 recruit. Michigan State looks very strong and Purdue is better than last year. I haven't seen Iowa play but they are obviously playing well. Indiana can't play defense but they will finish in the top 5 in the conference and have the potential to be as good as the top teams. Michigan has talent and a good coach. Ohio State (and perhaps Wisconsin) will get better as the season progresses. Ohio State always has top recruiting classes. If 6 teams go, it will probably be between us and Michigan. If 7 teams go, we will need to finish above Wisconsin and Ohio State for the first time in a long, long time.

Agree with all points except Wisconsin. The Badgers are in a boatload of trouble. For the first time I can remember, NU has more depth and better overall talent than Wisconsin. Badgers will struggle all season as they only go 7 deep and eventually their 2 best players will wear out.

 

[clarificationcat]

Agree with all points except Wisconsin. The Badgers are in a boatload of trouble. For the first time I can remember, NU has more depth and better overall talent than Wisconsin. Badgers will struggle all season as they only go 7 deep and eventually their 2 best players will wear out.

I sure hope so. It's about time. I am just so used to them exceeding expectations.

 

[ricko6543211]

I sure hope so. It's about time. I am just so used to them exceeding expectations.

Yea I kind of agree on Wisconsin- them at 40 seemed like the one ranking that was out of line with what they've done so far this year. I would have thought they'd be below us, I'd put them in the same bucket with OSU. That could be one where the preseason bogey is biasing it too much to the upside. I agree the top 6 right now is MSU Purdue Maryland Iowa Indiana Michigan (in order), and in order to get into the tournament we would either need to bust into that group, or else play well enough that it creates a spot for a 7th team. I think Matta will get OSU's youth to play better as year goes on and are a threat too. And yes Wiscy depth is weak, but they play good fundamental bball still and I bet will hang around and play a lot of close games.

 

[pawildcat_rivals209725]

The depth in the B1G is not what it usually is with Ohio State and Wisconsin not being their usual selves. I think programs such as NU are on the way up, but still a year or two away. As bad as Penn State is, they are starting to recruit well. Rutgers is a dumpster fire, but on the other hand Maryland has been a boon to the league in BB, both men's and women's. Illinois's woes continue to hamstring what should be a top 25 BB program every year. If I were their AD, Groce would be on a pretty short leash. The next hire after Bo obviously will be very important for Wisconsin. Doubt they'd stick with Gard, but we'll see. Izzo is finally starting to get some of the blue chip recruits he'd been missing on for the past couple of years, so look out there. Young Pitino is supposedly recruiting fairly well at Minny, so we'll see if they come up at all the next couple of years.

The B1G is going to need the bottom teams to develop in order to stay with the ACC as Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt have obviously boosted their BB brand. What's been keeping them down is the old ACC teams outside of Duke and NC haven't been all that great. That said, it's interesting that the ACC has 10 teams in this rating thing since they didn't look all that great during the B1G-ACC challenge. Virginia isn't going to stay No. 1. The league could take a hit in the future if North Cheatolina ever gets the penalty it richly deserves, but I'm not holding my breath.