Wow! Huge win. So obviously if the season ended today we would not make the tourney, but at this point are we close to at least being on the bubble for the bubble?
Are we on the bubble??
- Thread starter 7th Cir. Cat
- Start date
We let too many games slip away. (I wish we could have played those two canceled games just for experience's sake.) As far as the NCAA's go, we'd need to finish .500 in conference and make a deep run in the conference tournament to get on the bubble. Oh what could have been...
4 more wins? So much of NIT projection is guesswork, so it's hard to say. We have to win at least 3 more before the BTT to guarantee a .500 record to even be selectable.
If we go 10-10 in conference with two wins in BTT we are in NCAA. Really need to pull out a victory in Champaign. If we can do that then I think there is a reasonable Hope. Even with the conference “being down”. 10-10 in the conference in the BTT puts you squarely in the crosshairs of the committee.
This IS me enjoying the moment! So much fun of college basketball is speculating who gets into the tournament. It’s been ages since we could reasonably play that game. If we beat Illinois, I bet we appear in ESPN’s bubble watch
No. Hard stop.
I'd say we did it to ourselves, losing games that bubble teams would have won. Maryland, PSU, Michigan would have us in great shape.
Nope. Not unless we get to 10-10 in conference with a win over Michigan State.
Fair enough, but even if there was a formula for getting back on the bubble, this team is simply not good enough to do it. I’m just happy with the wins. I don’t want to even try projecting forward.
Yep, if we could have won some or most of those close games, we'd be somewhere between solid bubble to certain tourney.
Wake - up 1 with 50 seconds left and an easy layup (missed)
Michigan St (home) - tied with 5:30 left
Penn St - up 10 with 9:30 left
MD (home) - Nance missed FT with 11 seconds left to take the lead; up 3 in OT with 45 seconds left
Michigan - up 7 with 5 min left
Illinois - up 5 with 5:30 left
Bart Torvik's site has a fun tool to play around with: https://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Northwestern&year=2022
Basically, we need to go 5-2 and win at least two games in the BTT at minimum, otherwise there's zero chance we get on the NCAA bubble. Going 4-3 without a win over Illinois, Purdue or Iowa and going 1-1 in the BTT likely puts us out of the NIT. There is zero margin for error at the moment.
Basically, we need to go 5-2 and win at least two games in the BTT at minimum, otherwise there's zero chance we get on the NCAA bubble. Going 4-3 without a win over Illinois, Purdue or Iowa and going 1-1 in the BTT likely puts us out of the NIT. There is zero margin for error at the moment.
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That is an awesome tool. And I definitely overestimated how highly we'd be ranked if we won those close games. I changed Wake, PSU, MD, Michigan and Illinois to wins and that only got us to a 9 seed.
I'm excited that we won three in a row, but not euphoric, considering the opposition and how we won 2 of them.
Yep, this right here from Cappy. In order to even have a chance of making the NCAA tournament (minus winning the conference tournament or maybe making it to the final game), we HAVE to win one of these next two games against Illinois and Purdue. If we win one of those (very tall task), then we can start dreaming a little bit. That would put us at 6-9 in conference with wins at MSU and another win over Purdue or Illinois. A 4-1 finish in our last five games would leave us at 10-10 in conference. We would need to win AT LEAST one Big Ten tourney game to have a chance from there, but winning two would be recommended.
This is all to say that despite our three game winning streak, we are still a longshot for the NCAA tournament with a ton of work ahead of us. If we had won just two of the games earlier this year (let's say @ Michigan and Penn State at home), we'd actually be on the bubble right now, but still have work to do. At this point, our margin of error is really low and I'd put our chances of making the tourney at under 10%.
I'll still hope because what's the point of being a fan if you don't do that, but it's very unlikely.
Yes, this is the downside to having a non-conference schedule where 8 of the 11 teams we were supposed to play are Quad 4 teams, DePaul would've been a Quad 3. Not beating Providence caused us to play a Quad 4 game against Georgia instead of a Quad 2 against Virginia.
Great synopsis. We also need Michigan State to keep winning (which they didn't do against Wisconsin) since that's our signature win right now.
More than anything, I think we are on the $hitter. But all I really want is to see continue playing hard and smart, and not getting timid when the game goes under 4 minutes to go.
It's a hell of a lot better than losing 3 in a row.
Gives us a chance to have a chance. I'll say this is without a doubt our best team SINCE the NCAA!
A little trivia. We now have five conference victories. There are five other conference teams who have five victories or less. We have seven conference games remaining. Five of those seven games are against teams who have five wins or less
Exactly this. So, of course, Northwestern can lose to any team at any time, but it's certainly better than having to play ranked teams in like 6 of 9 games earlier this year. Also we will likely play a lower level team in the first round of the BTT, so it makes sense that this will yield a w... never mind.
Not necessarily. We will likely finish higher than 11th and avoid the first day, but unless we finish 8th or better we will still face a higher-seeded team on Thursday.