Toggle sidebar

Average Dual Point Differential During Sanderson Era

M

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,136
3,503
113
I was bored and added up the dual scores during the Cael Sanderson era and worked out their total point differential and average differential season to season. 2024-2025 was absolutely absurd.

*ADPD: Average Dual Point Differential
2024-2025: 537 (15-0) ADPD: 35.8
2023-2024: 363 (12-0) ADPD: 30.25
2022-2023: 428 (16-0) ADPD: 26.75
2021-2022: 355 (17-0) ADPD: 20.88
2020-2021: 118 (6-0) ADPD: 19.66
2019-2020: 260 (12-2) ADPD: 18.57
2018-2019: 403 (14-0) ADPD: 28.79
2017-2018: 402 (14-0) ADPD: 28.71
2016-2017: 391 (14-0) ADPD: 27.93
2015-2016: 428( 16-0) ADPD: 26.75
2014-2015: 237 ( 11-4) ADPD: 15.8
2013-2014: 370 ( 15-1) ADPD: 23.13
2012-2013: 430 13-1) ADPD: 30.71
2011-2012: 375 (13-1) ADPD: 26.79
2010-2011: 407 ( 17-1-1) ADPD: 21.42
2009-2010: 132 ( 13-6-1) ADPD: 6.6

Apologies for the format as I am in no way professional enough to make you a table and whatever else. I just like stats.
 
  • Like
  • Love
Reactions: TwoJoints, TAC77, wrestlingfan22 and 15 others
WexfordWarrior

WexfordWarrior

Senior
Jun 3, 2025
399
999
93
Misalorales said:
I was bored and added up the dual scores during the Cael Sanderson era and worked out their total point differential and average differential season to season. 2024-2025 was absolutely absurd.

*ADPD: Average Dual Point Differential
2024-2025: 537 (15-0) ADPD: 35.8
2023-2024: 363 (12-0) ADPD: 30.25
2022-2023: 428 (16-0) ADPD: 26.75
2021-2022: 355 (17-0) ADPD: 20.88
2020-2021: 118 (6-0) ADPD: 19.66
2019-2020: 260 (12-2) ADPD: 18.57
2018-2019: 403 (14-0) ADPD: 28.79
2017-2018: 402 (14-0) ADPD: 28.71
2016-2017: 391 (14-0) ADPD: 27.93
2015-2016: 428( 16-0) ADPD: 26.75
2014-2015: 237 ( 11-4) ADPD: 15.8
2013-2014: 370 ( 15-1) ADPD: 23.13
2012-2013: 430 13-1) ADPD: 30.71
2011-2012: 375 (13-1) ADPD: 26.79
2010-2011: 407 ( 17-1-1) ADPD: 21.42
2009-2010: 132 ( 13-6-1) ADPD: 6.6

Apologies for the format as I am in no way professional enough to make you a table and whatever else. I just like stats.
Click to expand...
 
  • Haha
  • Like
Reactions: SkiSkiSki, SlipperyPete and Misalorales
Psalm 1 guy

Psalm 1 guy

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2019
1,149
4,408
113
Misalorales said:
Good lord I figured they were ahead of pace but that's pretty incredible.
Click to expand...
And considering Penn State still has Indiana, Maryland, Princeton, and Michigan on this season's schedule, I see that pace continuing. Ohio State and Nebraska will probably lower that spread average, but other than them, no one is slowing this Penn State train.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TAC77, SlipperyPete, Cali_Nittany1 and 1 other person
Fatwoodchuck

Fatwoodchuck

Senior
Oct 19, 2023
395
572
93
Psalm 1 guy said:
And considering Penn State still has Indiana, Maryland, Princeton, and Michigan on this season's schedule, I see that pace continuing. Ohio State and Nebraska will probably lower that spread average, but other than them, no one is slowing this Penn State train.
Click to expand...
Very good question, schedule toughness, this year other than a few duals is actually pretty easy, easy is not iowa, had to clarify.
 
M

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,136
3,503
113
1000004628.jpg
Tom Brands at Iowa.
*** Iowa and TnT absolutely molly-whopped some very lackluster competition their first ten years or so. They collected a veritable cornucopia of beat downs over the likes of Coe College, Cornell COLLEGE, Baker, Iowa Central, Minnesota State - Mankato, Iowa lakes, North Carolina Pembroke,Southern Illinois Edwardsville, Iowa Central CC and Grand Canyon... A who's who of who cares, if you will.
Penn State has had some easy opponents as well to be clear.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cali_Nittany1, SkiSkiSki, Psalm 1 guy and 2 others
A

Aardvark86

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
1,212
2,116
113
Misalorales said:
View attachment 1159121
Little better view of the Cael at Penn state data. *Yea I'm not any more tech savvy than I have to be. Just enjoy the stats
Click to expand...
Interesting. If you put the Brands and Cael charts side by side, there seems to be two fairly discernable trend lines, in opposing directions, beginning at an inflection point of around 2010.
 
M

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,136
3,503
113
Aardvark86 said:
Interesting. If you put the Brands and Cael charts side by side, there seems to be two fairly discernable trend lines, in opposing directions, beginning at an inflection point of around 2010.
Click to expand...
Since Cael took over Iowa has had the higher Average margin of victory 7 out of 17 ( data is including this year) years, they won a title in one and would have been "favored" in another. Conversely, PSU won 2 titles in years Iowa had a higher margin of victory...

If you look at the data for cael what's neat is you see the first year, then 4 titles then the reset year, then 4 titles. Then you see two "down years", Iowas brief reemergence, and then you see the recent run of titles.

2021-2022 was the "worst" ( poor word I know) performing Penn State team,margin of victory wise to win a title. Far as I can tell, without doing math on the 2014-2015 Buckeyes, the 2021-2022 PSU team has the second lowest average dual point differential (ADPD) of any champ in the last 17 contested championships. Iowa in 07-08 being the lowest at 19.5
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cali_Nittany1, SlipperyPete, Col and 1 other person
M

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,136
3,503
113
Acacia said:
I'd love to see Iowa vs Penn State ADPD over the years for just BigTen duals... get rid of the massacre duals...
Click to expand...
I was just talking about this. Yea, I think a potentially more useful data set would be big ten duals or top whatever duals only. If it were football I'd say power 4 but is there a wrestling equivalent? BIG 10, BIG 12,ACC,EIWA? But even that seems tough. I am going to do a direct brand vs sanderson ADPD in the next few days. See where they stand h2h
 
M

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,136
3,503
113
Acacia said:
I'd love to see Iowa vs Penn State ADPD over the years for just BigTen duals... get rid of the massacre duals...
Click to expand...
The main issue is why would I include a PSU massacre over Purdue but not a dual vs Lehigh or cornell? Or Wyoming this year and so on.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SkiSkiSki
Goggles Paisano

Goggles Paisano

All-Conference
Feb 6, 2018
766
1,974
93
Misalorales said:
2021-2022 was the "worst" ( poor word I know) performing Penn State team,margin of victory wise to win a title. Far as I can tell, without doing math on the 2014-2015 Buckeyes, the 2021-2022 PSU team has the second lowest average dual point differential (ADPD) of any champ in the last 17 contested championships. Iowa in 07-08 being the lowest at 19.5
Click to expand...
Well it's isn't talked about too much, but before the wide open portal and NIL, the loss of a single wrestler in the lineup was a really big deal, and not so quickly corrected.

As it was sometimes referred to at the time; the Suriano 'Curse' was pretty accurate, and 125 was a major hole in the lineup it seemed forever.

Someone with more time on their hands than me should confirm, but I believe had Suriano stayed, we would have won the Az State dual, probably the Iowa dual, and most likely that Iowa national championship with his 125 point differential. We already had an impressive dual steak going when we narrowly lost those two. Additional injuries played a role in both as well.

Both streaks would now be in ludicrous territory. Most don't share my opinion, but had we never landed Suriano, I believe we would have got Spencer. I think he denies it had any role in his decision, but I am not convinced. Likewise Cael would have been on that bone 10x harder if that is possible and would have made it happen.

The Suriano curse was real. Not anymore!
 
  • Like
Reactions: TAC77, SkiSkiSki, Misalorales and 1 other person
Col

Col

Sophomore
Oct 17, 2021
71
133
33
98lberEating2Lunches said:
But is the all time NCAA ADPD that's been normalized for changes to the number of weight classes and team point scoring, as well as rescored bout scores that would've yielded different team points, in jeopardy? 🤔🫡🤭
Click to expand...
You forgot the normalization of controversial ref decisions (which surprisingly some guy named Angel seems to have an outsized share of)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Wrestleknownothing
N

NorthStarWrestler

Redshirt
Jan 24, 2026
20
27
13
Penn state is the only team in the world that can make the second-5th best team in the nation look like a high school team. Crazy!
 
Joejitsu

Joejitsu

Junior
Jun 10, 2025
283
390
63
all of the metrics aside... we seem to be widening the margin and we dont have to look at ADPD... just look at how many wrestlers we have ranked #1... look at the bonus rates across the board and look at the reality that we really dont have any legitimate weak spots.... that tells me everything need to know... metrics aside
 
M

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,136
3,503
113
Wrestleknownothing said:
So to beat Gable's best PSU needs to win their last 4 duals by an average of 23.5 (94 total points). Seems doable with Nebraska, Michigan, anOSU, and Princeton still to come.
Click to expand...
You know what I guarantee someone is going to say? " What about the 3 point takedown and modern scoring " and to that I will say....I just do this for fun. Someone who gets paid can rehash old scores with modern rules 😂

But yes, this year should absolutely do it. And I can't imagine there's another year by a different team out there that is ahead that 1991-1992 gable team. I'm gonna add some others, make lists up for Smith, robinson, Zalesky, TanTom.. can't imagine any of them had a more dominant season that Gable, or Cael.
 
  • Like
Reactions: creamery freak, BriantheLion and Wrestleknownothing
M

Misalorales

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
1,136
3,503
113
Psalm 1 guy said:
Not that Penn State's dual schedule this season has been the best of competition, but in the '91-'92 season Iowa outscored powerhouses Drake, Loras, Marquette, and S. Colorado by a combined score of 199-0, so there is that.
Click to expand...
Yea definitely. It's just near impossible to compare strength of schedule. I just have assume everyone has their cupcakes and go with whatever the data says. Granted, TnT also has a proclivity for cupcakes early on in their career as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Psalm 1 guy and Tryingtodoitright
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom