In response to my returning points thread, someone on 34andcounting asked what kind of points could a freshman be expected to score at the NCAA Tournament.
Using Willie's Big Board data I decided to take a look. One huge caveat is that the numbers below are fitted lines through some VERY noisy data.
80% of Success is Showing Up
The first thing I looked at was the odds of qualifying for the tournament based on BB rank. There are 12 years worth of graduating classes in the data (2013 - 2023) that have completed true freshman and redshirt freshman years. For these calcs I am including true freshmen and redshirt freshmen for each high school graduating year. For example, for 2022 grads I include 2023 true freshmen plus 2024 redshirt freshmen.
But you can't just show up. Once a freshman makes the tournament they still need to score. Combining scoring with probability of making the tournament steepens the curve somewhat.
That really should be Mitchell Mesenbrink's walk out music.
Remember what I said about the noise in the data? Mesenbrink is the physical embodiment of that noise (and he was trained by the Master of Funk). As the #59 ranked wrestler in his class, the line above suggests he is good for about a half a point in his freshman year. Well, at 19.5 points he is what we would call an outlier. And the reason you should take this with a grain of salt.
Using Willie's Big Board data I decided to take a look. One huge caveat is that the numbers below are fitted lines through some VERY noisy data.
80% of Success is Showing Up
The first thing I looked at was the odds of qualifying for the tournament based on BB rank. There are 12 years worth of graduating classes in the data (2013 - 2023) that have completed true freshman and redshirt freshman years. For these calcs I am including true freshmen and redshirt freshmen for each high school graduating year. For example, for 2022 grads I include 2023 true freshmen plus 2024 redshirt freshmen.
- 100% of #1 Big Boarders qualified for the tournament as either a true freshman or a redshirt freshman. These are your only sure things.
- By the time you get to the #10 BB it is a 50/50 proposition whether they even qualify for the tournament, never mind score once they get there.
But you can't just show up. Once a freshman makes the tournament they still need to score. Combining scoring with probability of making the tournament steepens the curve somewhat.
- At almost 18 points per, #1 BB can be expected to score in the high teens in their freshmen year (true or redshirt).
- But that is it. No other rank cracks double digits.
- And by the time you get to the #10 ranked freshman recruit you are looking at about 4 points.
That really should be Mitchell Mesenbrink's walk out music.
Remember what I said about the noise in the data? Mesenbrink is the physical embodiment of that noise (and he was trained by the Master of Funk). As the #59 ranked wrestler in his class, the line above suggests he is good for about a half a point in his freshman year. Well, at 19.5 points he is what we would call an outlier. And the reason you should take this with a grain of salt.
