I live in Indianapolis and want to purchase tickets for the Big Ten Tournament. Is there a scenario where we might not get in? Every prognosticator I come across says we are first round team first second or third game. Can I count on that. Good tickets aren't cheap.
Big Ten Tournament
- Thread starter CatFanEd
- Start date
Play around with scenarios here: https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
I think we root for Nebraska over Ohio State tonight, but I haven't gone through every scenario yet.
I think we root for Nebraska over Ohio State tonight, but I haven't gone through every scenario yet.
Great tool. Thanks. Based on what I am seeing and like Smelly says, it is possible but unlikely we fall to 14.
You can try out all the scenarios here (I know I have linked this several times): https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
Not sure I agree with this. PSU and Washington are already out, so how does USC get in?
I made a spreadsheet with all the scenarios but I made an error and am trying to clean it up. Everything I saw where NU didn't make it involved USC beating UCLA and Iowa beating Nebraska in the last weekend of the season. The other games matter, but those in particular are problematic.
Of course, if NU beats Maryland, none of those other games matter.
Yes I’m assuming it will be like it was in Chicago. Where the first round is sparsely attended. I would pay $1 for a ticket and you can usually sit pretty much wherever you want. Don’t waste your money.
If MSU beats Iowa on Thursday night, then we're in. There are lots of other ways for us to get in, but that looks like the easiest.
The sad thing is - we're better than Iowa, USC, Washington, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota and probably as good as Indiana and Rutgers.
Of course, I'm a little biased, but it would be nice if we got a chance to prove that.
Unfortunately, this is not true in all cases, though it certainly cuts out most of the scenarios where NU doesn't make it.
Right now, if MSU beats Iowa, there are still three scenarios in which NU misses out if they lose to Maryland. They all involve USC winning against both Washington and UCLA and Iowa beating Nebraska.
I don't believe there is a scenario where NU can clinch before Saturday.
Are you sure? I thought we have the tiebreaker over Iowa if we both end up 7-13 as long as they don't beat anyone higher in the standings than Maryland (i.e MSU). Is the problem that we would lose a three+-way tiebreaker?
No, because of round-robin considerations.
However, I may be wrong about being unable to clinch before the weekend, as there doesn't appear to be a scenario where Washington beats USC tonight and MSU beats Iowa tomorrow in which NU doesn't get in.
Yeah, turns out I wasn't sure. See above. The round-robin thing is problematic if we end up tied with Nebraska and Rutgers, for example, even with victories over Iowa and USC.
I think we need Wisconsin to win at Minnesota tonight and then Rutgers to beat them this weekend in Jersey or Iowa to lose both their games this week. Whatever happens, this team has made it a fun hoops season for me,
The easiest path for us is beating Maryland.
Second easiest path is either USC or Iowa loses last their 2 games.
If none of those things happen we need to win some sort of likely multi-team tiebreaker.
What we want to see tonight:
USC-Washington: Things look much better for us if UW pulls the upset, given that UCLA will be a big favorite over USC this weekend and 2 USC losses eliminates them.
Wisconsin-Minnesota: Definintely better for us if the Badgers win. Minny plays Rutgers on Sunday so one of them ends up with at least 8 wins. Better for us for Rutgers to get to 8 and Minny tied with us at 7.
Maryland-Michigan: I don’t know if it matters that much. I guess Terps winning is good for us because if the “best team you beat” tiebreaker comes into play we want them as high as possible in the standings.
Second easiest path is either USC or Iowa loses last their 2 games.
If none of those things happen we need to win some sort of likely multi-team tiebreaker.
What we want to see tonight:
USC-Washington: Things look much better for us if UW pulls the upset, given that UCLA will be a big favorite over USC this weekend and 2 USC losses eliminates them.
Wisconsin-Minnesota: Definintely better for us if the Badgers win. Minny plays Rutgers on Sunday so one of them ends up with at least 8 wins. Better for us for Rutgers to get to 8 and Minny tied with us at 7.
Maryland-Michigan: I don’t know if it matters that much. I guess Terps winning is good for us because if the “best team you beat” tiebreaker comes into play we want them as high as possible in the standings.
Ha. Easiest in this case is "easiest to calculate" rather "easiest for the team to execute"
h2h is first I believe, but if three or more teams are tied, the round robin comes into play. So if NU is tied with JUST USC, they win that tiebreaker, but if they're tied with Nebraska and USC and Minnesota, for example, then I believe it'll go like this:
Minnesota is 2-1, Northwestern is 2-1, Nebraska is 1-2, USC is 1-2. So Minnesota and Northwestern "win," and then the head-to-head puts NU ahead of Minnesota. Nebraska lost to USC, so USC would be third and Nebraska would be fourth.
Part of the reason we wanted Nebraska to win last night was to put them ahead of NU so that the NU loss doesn't hurt as much in a potential tiebreaker. Nebraska couldn't pull it out though, so they're down slumming with NU at 7-12 now.
Thanks for pointing that out. Once I realized you were right (about the multiple teams are tied, so head to head is complicated) I started to look at it and realized there were a lot of permutations, so I stopped.
It would suck if we lost out in a 4 way tiebreaker. We're better than all of those teams - except Rutgers I guess. Weird how Rutgers kicked our butts on our court without Dylan Harper.
We might have won if harper played. Competition for shots might have been chemistry disaster for rutgers. Like Orlando woolridge and Michael Jordan his first year with bulls at Chicago stadium
Glad Michigan State woke up. Seems like 2nd half comebacks are more common now than in the past.
Yes, but that doesn't necessarily keep NU out. If any one of three teams lose their final game, USC, Iowa, or Minnesota, the 'Cats are in even if they lose to Maryland. Of course, if NU beats Maryland, it doesn't matter what anybody else does.
I know there are multiple scenarios that get us in. Does USC losing that game put us in? Looks like it is a UCLA home game. IA is on road at NEB and MN is at Rutgers so it looks like everyone of not is on the road for last game
Last edited:
If ANY of these things happen, NU is in:
NU beats Maryland (15% chance of winning, according to Torvik) on Saturday
UCLA beats USC (82%) on Saturday
Nebraska beats Iowa (71%) on Sunday
Rutgers beats Minnesota (71%) on Sunday
By my math (and I think Cappy's too), if NU loses, they still have a 98.5% chance of making it.
Thats only if all the games are independent of each other.
If you believe there's a supernatural force determining the outcome of each game, and that supernatural force doesn't like Northwestern, we might have a 50% chance of making the BTT.
Maryland has been playing very well since we beat them in Evanston. They're 11-2 since.
But yeah, they killed us on our defensive boards.
And Windham was 2 for 10. The 3 centers were 2 for 9 collectively.
Our worst game in awhile - but there were 18000 fans rooting for the Terps.
I’d like to be the 14 seed. They play latest, would be easiest to watch. Anyone know the scenarios for seeding assuming ucla wins? Or is this just too complex to do a day early?
Just happy we're going. Would really like to win one. Glad that Ty and Matt are finishing their careers in a postseason game, if nothing else. I like to think we have a shot on Day 1 for sure. Beyond that ........ will take our best game. But that's why we play them.