Bitcoin

[Deeeefense]

I found this short interview with Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management really informative as to what bitcoin actually is and how it relates to other assets like gold and fiat currency.
Some very interesting points made in the interview including how the price of an asset is totally different than the value. Most fiat currency has eventually gone bust. The US dollar has now lost 93% of it's historical value and continues to be debased by inflation.

 

[AustinTXCat]

Dee, I respect you quite a bit. I consider your business sense on par or better than some of the best I've read on here. Politics aside, your moderate takes on all other matters are admirable. Personally speaking, I've learned much from you over the years.

But BTC at 250K?

Yes, I've mined crypto, but I'm sorry. Count me in the Buffet/Munger crowd. I dunno. I've been very wrong before.

 

[Deeeefense]

Thanks for your kind words - likewise always enjoy your takes.
I agree but his $250K prediction is 5 years from now. I encourage you to watch this if you haven't already, he makes some extremely interesting points on money/assets in general.

 

[Tinker Dan]

I invested heavily in Shinola. Well, at least I thought I did. It turns out that I did not know the difference...

I figure that if I cannot keep that straight, I better steer clear of cryptocurrencies.

I tried to understand. I really did.

I will say that I have, or to be more clear, at one time I had a thorough knowledge of cryptographic technologies and their inner workings.

For the life of me, I cannot figure out what the product is, in this case.

So I figure plain ole mutual funds that I do understand is where I should stay.

Yes, I am a boomer.

Edit: I was born in '65, so I think I am on the edge of Boomer.

 

[RunninRichie]

crypto miners can get pumped. I just want a gpu to finish my PC.

 

[Tinker Dan]

crypto miners can get pumped. I just want a gpu to finish my PC.

I am waiting on two 8TB NAS hard drives...... I thought Chia was a pet.... ANOTHER, reason for me to stay out of this world. lol

 

[AustinTXCat]

I ran two nice video cards mining for a while. When the bottom fell out, I let my rig sit until my 63 year-old former BIL needed a video card to run Counter Strike or some other video game. Let him have one card for what I paid.

I dunno. I'll watch the video. My cousin's husband is a retired stock broker (series 7). He's encouraged me to trade rather than mine. We'll see.

 

[bkingUK]

Still like it longterm but panic sold my initial stake when it went bust last month. Luckily was up 500% since initial purchase. Was targeting 100k by end of year but the correction makes that tough. Still waiting for signal for putting more in. Seems close

 

[Wildcats1st]

Too many govts are set against it they will confiscate it if it’s a threat to their currency.
Not secure enough I.e hackers
What the other guy said about not knowing the ins and outs of crypto. Not enough people understand to utilize full market potential
too susceptible to billionaires inflating the price and pulling the rug

it probably is a reflection of inflation but gold is tangible and hasn’t reflected the last two years of spending in its price. Any investment at this point will give a nice return bc of impending inflation. I’d look at metals though because they tend to lag.

 

[BlueVelvetFog]

I invested heavily in Shinola. Well, at least I thought I did. It turns out that I did not know the difference...

I figure that if I cannot keep that straight, I better steer clear of cryptocurrencies.

I tried to understand. I really did.

I will say that I have, or to be more clear, at one time I had a thorough knowledge of cryptographic technologies and their inner workings.

For the life of me, I cannot figure out what the product is, in this case.

So I figure plain ole mutual funds that I do understand is where I should stay.

Yes, I am a boomer.

Edit: I was born in '65, so I think I am on the edge of Boomer.

You are an X-er by definition

 

[jameslee32]

Whenever anyone talks down one thing or person to help prop up something else or someone else, my ******** meter starts going nuts. BTC may be stored value and even more but every time someone talks about it, this seems to happen.

 

[bkingUK]

The next halving event is projected in 2024. Every halving event has led to substantial increase in value of BTC.

My advice is this. If you have some play money and are on sidelines, buy some Bitcoin now. Just let it sit. Don’t touch it. Ignore the chaos. Play it long. Forget about it. It’s not a classic hedge but gives some skin in game and pretty good chance it’ll be worth it in a few years.

 

[jameslee32]

MSTR borrowing $400 million to buy BTC.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I ran two nice video cards mining for a while. When the bottom fell out, I let my rig sit until my 63 year-old former BIL needed a video card to run Counter Strike or some other video game. Let him have one card for what I paid.

I dunno. I'll watch the video. My cousin's husband is a retired stock broker (series 7). He's encouraged me to trade rather than mine. We'll see.

"Series 7? You can get out, too. We don't hire brokers here, we train new ones."

 

[mrhotdice]

The next halving event is projected in 2024. Every halving event has led to substantial increase in value of BTC.

My advice is this. If you have some play money and are on sidelines, buy some Bitcoin now. Just let it sit. Don’t touch it. Ignore the chaos. Play it long. Forget about it. It’s not a classic hedge but gives some skin in game and pretty good chance it’ll be worth it in a few years.

You can hold long on Gold and Silver if you own physical. I do not trust the government to protect any money put into Bitcoin. Biden seems to have financial experts that make up data and make economic rules up as they go. Bitcoin is not a safe haven. Think, it’s 31000 today, was 60,000. That crazy movement is what the criminals of Wall Street and the Fed hate. It will never be the crypto standard but will be as it has always been, The Gold Standard even if gold goes to 100,000 an ounce.

 

[bkingUK]

You can hold long on Gold and Silver if you own physical. I do not trust the government to protect any money put into Bitcoin. Biden seems to have financial experts that make up data and make economic rules up as they go. Bitcoin is not a safe haven. Think, it’s 31000 today, was 60,000. That crazy movement is what the criminals of Wall Street and the Fed hate. It will never be the crypto standard but will be as it has always been, The Gold Standard even if gold goes to 100,000 an ounce.

I think there are real risks to crypto. Government is one. The crypto day traders look at it much different. From my point of view, I intend to leave it and check back in 20 years. If I lose it I lose it...but there’s also a chance of substantial increase. It’s a gamble

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Too many govts are set against it they will confiscate it if it’s a threat to their currency.
Not secure enough I.e hackers
What the other guy said about not knowing the ins and outs of crypto. Not enough people understand to utilize full market potential
too susceptible to billionaires inflating the price and pulling the rug

it probably is a reflection of inflation but gold is tangible and hasn’t reflected the last two years of spending in its price. Any investment at this point will give a nice return bc of impending inflation. I’d look at metals though because they tend to lag.

This. The last 20-30 years taught us that government sees itself entitled to as much of your assets as it sees fit.

Just this week the g7 conference set an international minimum tax rate for corporations.

They will only allow crytpo to go so far. No way they risk their control via currency. Just not going to happen

 

[Tskware]

This. The last 20-30 years taught us that government sees itself entitled to as much of your assets as it sees fit.

Just this week the g7 conference set an international minimum tax rate for corporations.

They will only allow crytpo to go so far. No way they risk their control via currency. Just not going to happen

And I tend to agree with that point of view. Much rather my money be guaranteed by the British and US government, and the European Union, warts and all, than some hackers in their underwear mining for electronic ******** in a factory filled with computers.

And yes, born in 60, so "OK Boomer" is appropriate in my case.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

And I tend to agree with that point of view. Much rather my money be guaranteed by the British and US government, and the European Union, warts and all, than some hackers in their underwear mining for electronic ******** in a factory filled with computers.

And yes, born in 60, so "OK Boomer" is appropriate in my case.

I don't think it's a boomer thing. It's a risk thing.

In reality it's a return to a barter style trade economy. Crypto is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

Stocks are that way too. One thing GameStop and AMC situation showed everyone, is it's all an arbitrary number based on a willing buyer and willing seller. The big difference is that's all regulated, monitored, and taxed.

No way these governments allow crypto to get that big without regulation/taxation. They can't stand cash transactions, so the untraceable nature of this just won't last. In fact, it's a good bet they already have backdoors or the whole thing would already be done.

 

[bkingUK]

Only thing government can do to stop Crypto are laws that deter it (things like forbidding employment wages) and other perception campaigns to delegitimize it. Truth is, outside of those types of efforts, they are somewhat limited in options. Not a lot different than bit torrent or Napster if they chose to pursue illegality. But what that does mean is that the net result is less popularity and therefore less value.

 

[Tskware]

Stocks are that way too. One thing GameStop and AMC situation showed everyone, is it's all an arbitrary number based on a willing buyer and willing seller. The big difference is that's all regulated, monitored, and taxed.

No way these governments allow crypto to get that big without regulation/taxation. They can't stand cash transactions, so the untraceable nature of this just won't last. In fact, it's a good bet they already have backdoors or the whole thing would already be done.

I agree with Gamestop and AMC, but those are aberrations. Vast majority of stocks are priced based on their earnings, or what their forward looking earnings are expected to be, and have customers, and revenue and products creating real money, so they do have "real" value, although at any given time their price fluctuates.

With Crypto, what is the "real" value? No one has ever explained it to me.

 

[bkingUK]

I agree with Gamestop and AMC, but those are aberrations. Vast majority of stocks are priced based on their earnings, or what their forward looking earnings are expected to be, and have customers, and revenue and products creating real money, so they do have "real" value, although at any given time their price fluctuates.

With Crypto, what is the "real" value? No one has ever explained it to me.

You could ask the same question of any fiat currency and many other valuables. What is the actual value of the US dollar?

The answer to that is the assurance and credibility of US government and its widespread usage.

The value of crypto is blockchain and full ledger of transactions. So, you have a way to identify fraud, uniqueness and proof of ownership. But why it has value is the same reason the US dollar has value. It’s accepted as a means of value .

 

[Tskware]

You could ask the same question of any fiat currency and many other valuables. What is the actual value of the US dollar?

The answer to that is the assurance and credibility of US government and its widespread usage.

The value of crypto is blockchain and full ledger of transactions. So, you have a way to identify fraud, uniqueness and proof of ownership. But why it has value is the same reason the US dollar has value. It’s accepted as a means of value .

Well, we will have to just agree to disagree. When blockchain and ledgers have been around like the USA for 250 years or so, maybe we will have something to compare.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

I agree with Gamestop and AMC, but those are aberrations. Vast majority of stocks are priced based on their earnings, or what their forward looking earnings are expected to be, and have customers, and revenue and products creating real money, so they do have "real" value, although at any given time their price fluctuates.

With Crypto, what is the "real" value? No one has ever explained it to me.

If they are priced based on earnings and future earnings, then there would be a common formula to consistently determine value. That doesn't exist because that isn't how it actually works. If I have a share the only valuation is what it's current trading value is based on recent transactions of that share.

Now, those things are great indicators of which stocks people want to buy and sell, because everyone looks at the much same info and reaches mostly the same conclusion. In that way it's similar to horse racing, except there it's the odds that you're buying.

So in reality it's just a fancy barter economy that happens to be regulated by the sec/nasd.

 

[bkingUK]

Well, we will have to just agree to disagree. When blockchain and ledgers have been around like the USA for 250 years or so, maybe we will have something to compare.

There’s risks to that point of view too. Risk of inflation, political (national and geopolitical), rise of competing super powers and rise of crypto also present threats to US dollar and hegemony.

 

[mrhotdice]

I think Bitcoin today went to 32000 but if I could buy Bitcoin or 32000 in gold or silver, iMHO as a safe bet, I would take the metal. I also think these people that say BC is going to 1 million have no knowledge of economic rules, Adam Smith, or are just crazy.

 

[bkingUK]

 

[bkingUK]

I think Bitcoin today went to 32000 but if I could buy Bitcoin or 32000 in gold or silver, iMHO as a safe bet, I would take the metal. I also think these people that say BC is going to 1 million have no knowledge of economic rules, Adam Smith, or are just crazy.

I’d take that bet by the way. You take 1k and precious medals. I take 1k and crypto. Let’s see who has more in a year.

 

[chroix]

It’s all got value until it doesn’t.

 

[Deeeefense]

This. The last 20-30 years taught us that government sees itself entitled to as much of your assets as it sees fit.

Just this week the g7 conference set an international minimum tax rate for corporations.

They will only allow crytpo to go so far. No way they risk their control via currency. Just not going to happen

Governments have some ability to effect crypto currency but it's very limited. This article explains the ins and outs:

https://www.investopedia.com/news/can-government-regulation-affect-bitcoin-prices/

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Governments have some ability to effect crypto currency but it's very limited. This article explains the ins and outs:

https://www.investopedia.com/news/can-government-regulation-affect-bitcoin-prices/

If they can't regulate it, they will just criminalize it or stop any financial institution from accepting or holding any proceeds from any Bitcoin transaction.

If that doesn't work, they'll make it illegal for anyone to accept it.

I hope I'm wrong, I just don't see the US or any nation heavy on taxation allowing a currency to spread unless they can control it. In fact I'm pretty comfortable in saying the US currently has a back door, otherwise it wouldve been shut down way before now.

 

[jameslee32]

 

[mrhotdice]

I’d take that bet by the way. You take 1k and precious medals. I take 1k and crypto. Let’s see who has more in a year.

That’s your problem with respect. Look 5-10 years ahead. If life was only one year at a time all of us are doomed.

 

[bluthruandthru]

I would take almost any investment over precious metals over 10 years.

And IMO, that is the only way to invest. "It's time in the market, not timing the market."

 

[bkingUK]

That’s your problem with respect. Look 5-10 years ahead. If life was only one year at a time all of us are doomed.

Quite the opposite. If you read what I posted, looking out even 20-30 years.

 

[bkingUK]

https://www.protocol.com/newsletters/protocol-fintech/-square-crypto-wallet-bitcoin-strategy

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Right on cue. Although I'm surprised they're using an environment angle. That seems to be exceedingly weak, not that they care.

If it isn't this angle, itll be something else.

Politicians are the worst

 

[bkingUK]

Right on cue. Although I'm surprised they're using an environment angle. That seems to be exceedingly weak, not that they care.

If it isn't this angle, itll be something else.

Politicians are the worst

I would’ve thought that was satire. She’s clearly out of touch given an estimated 47 million Americans own crypto.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

https://www.ft.com/content/47c271c1-0be3-4a5c-9ca6-b231ed0f7fef

Wonder what currency those transactions were using? In case anyone doubts these governments have a backdoor.

I would’ve thought that was satire. She’s clearly out of touch given an estimated 47 million Americans own crypto.

She's an idiot that much is sure. Unfortunately so are most other politicians. They see a source of tax revenue and a threat to their control over currency. They won't let it stand. The only variable is which reason they decide to justify their move.

 

[JBHolmesfan]

The big advantage to bitcoin over the USD is inflation. The US government can decide to deposit $1 million into our accounts tomorrow. We saw how wildly they spent during the pandemic. Inflation is going to be an issue.

There can only be a set number of bitcoins ever produced. No government can give out a bitcoin stimulus. To me, that’s why it has value.