Blowouts in CBB: Becoming More Common?

[bbnkat02]

So, we've seen it from several teams this year including us. Zaga got torched by UM. UT got smoked just a few days ago.

And we saw it happen a lot last year too.

"Fan analysts looking at KenPom and conference results noted that several major leagues (SEC, Big 12, Big Ten) were showing a higher percentage of blowouts than their 10-year averages — sometimes nearly double what’s typical. In one informal breakdown, blowouts in those conferences were around 22–28 % of games vs ~11–14 % historically in recent seasons"

So, I pose a question just to take a bit of focus of our games for a bit.

What's up with the seemingly increasing level of blowout games? Or does it just feel like it's becoming more common?

 

[RunninRichie]

Offense getting optimized. Teams are old af too.

 

[12375CAT]

It's still early yet.

 

[bbnkat02]

It's still early yet.

This was happening last year and even in the tourney last year as well. The percentages I pulled are from last season.

 

[12375CAT]

This was happening last year and even in the tourney last year as well. The percentages I pulled are from last season.

Blame the transfer portal.

 

[bbnkat02]

Blame the transfer portal.

Perhaps? I'm not sure.

It's not a complaint per se. I just wanted to pose the topic and question. Because I really don't know the answer and wanted to get some insight from folks like @Aike who's VERY good with numbers.

 

[Aike]

Perhaps? I'm not sure.

It's not a complaint per se. I just wanted to pose the topic and question. Because I really don't know the answer and wanted to get some insight from folks like @Aike who's VERY good with numbers.

I haven’t looked into it. I do tend to believe that great offense is more important than great defense. If I were trying to optimize for success, I’d be trying to have as many possessions as possible, while maintaining the highest efficiency possible.

A rock fight might come down to a lucky shot, but if you’re up by 20, there’s nothing anyone can do to stop you. Not the other team. Not the refs.

If you’re less talented you might play a style that’s more risky. Gamble for steals. Take more threes. Feast or famine.

If you’re more talented, you should be trying to run teams out of the gym by maximizing possessions, knowing that on average you will be little better every possession.

Either way this will lead to more blowouts.

 

[M080470]

NIL and transfer portal together are my guess. The days of seeing a mid major to lower D-1 school develop players and teams are probably over when all they are doing is being feeder programs for bigger conferences and names.

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

Just for context this is what the SEC has looked like in terms of blowout % (greater than 19 point wins)

2025 - 18.1% (9th)
2024 - 19.0% (6th)
2023 - 16.7% (8th)
2022 - 7.9% (30th)
2021 - 18.1% (8th)
2020 - 14.3% (12th)

At least in conference games other than 2022 which seems to be an outlier it seems we are somewhat consistent.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

KenPomPom is fake numbers

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Transfer portal. Talent is consolidating. A perfect example is that a guy like Walter Clayton would have been a 4 year player at Iona and would have never made his way to Florida. Florida then takes a hit in their talent so they cant blow teams out.. and iona stays as a pretty good mid-major (maybe with Pitino still) and they upset a few majors, maybe even win a game or two in the tournament.

Now take that scenario and times it by 1,000. Its happening across the sport.