Bracketology Thoughts, Pt. 5

[Maroon Eagle]

<div> Here's the fifth part of my thoughts regarding how I think the bracket will work. The previous week's thoughts can be found here.

(x - conference leader; z - conference champion & winner of NCAA tournament berth)

1-seed
xTennessee
xUCLA
xMemphis
xNorth Carolina

The Bruins move up to the 1-seed.

2-seed
xGeorgetown
Duke
Texas
xKansas

Duke moves down to the 2-seed.

3-seed
xXavier
Louisville
xWisconsin
Notre Dame

4-seed
Purdue
Indiana
Vanderbilt
Stanford

5-seed
Michigan State
Connecticut
xDrake
xButler

6-seed
xBrigham Young
Washington State
xGonzaga
Clemson

7-seed
Marquette
xSouth Alabama
Mississippi State
Pittsburgh

8-seed
UNLV
Southern California
St. Mary's
xKent State

9-seed
West Virginia
Miami, FL
Oklahoma
Illinois State

10-seed
Kansas State
Baylor
Kentucky
Arkansas

Why Kentucky is a 10-seed: Even without Patrick Patterson, the Wildcats are playing better than the at-large teams seeded below them.

11-seed
xVirginia Commonwealth
Temple
Massachusetts
Syracuse

Syracuse and Temple enter the bracket as at-large entries.

12-seed
xDavidson
Texas A&M
Arizona
Ohio State

Ohio State enters the bracket as an at-large entry.

13-seed
xStephen F. Austin
xOral Roberts
New Mexico
Virginia Tech

Stephen F. Austin enters the bracket as the leader of the Southland. New Mexico enters the bracket as an at-large entry.

14-seed
zCornell
xUC Santa Barbara
xUtah State
zBelmont

UC Santa Barbara and Utah State enter the bracket as leaders of the Big West and WAC.

15-seed
xSiena
zAustin Peay
xMaryland-Baltimore County
xAmerican

Siena enters the bracket as leaders of the MAAC.

16-seed
xPortland State
xRobert Morris
zWinthrop
Play-in
xMorgan State
xAlabama State

Winthrop enters the bracket as champions of the Big South. Morgan State and Alabama State are in the play-in game.

In the Bracket
UC Santa Barbara
New Mexico
Ohio State
Siena
Stephen F. Austin
Syracuse
Temple
Utah State
Winthrop

Out of the Bracket
UAB
Boise State
CS Northridge
Lamar
Loyola (Md.)
Maryland
UNC Asheville
St. Joseph's
Southern Illinois

Last Four In:
Texas A&M
Ohio State
New Mexico
Virginia Tech

I decided to go with two schools that were in the upper half of the top two power conferences in the nation: Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. Ohio State was deserving of some notice after their win over Purdue. New Mexico got a must-win game against UNLV.

Last Four Out:
St. Joseph's
Western Kentucky
UAB
Mississippi

The Hawks' losing 3 of 4 hurt. Western Kentucky's best chance to make the dance is to win the Sun Belt tournament. Mississippi is making a run, but the five bad losses hurt them. UAB is in a similar situation to the Rebels.

Next Four Out:
Maryland
Florida
Southern Illinois
Dayton

Maryland needed a home win against Clemson. Florida has struggled. Southern Illinois didn't even make the semifinals of the MVC tournament. Dayton is here as a courtesy since the Flyers have a top 40 RPI even though they are tied for 7th in the Atlantic 10.

Edited to correct comment regarding 1-seeds.
</div>

 

[VinceVega70]

If we lose our first game in the SEC tourney, I agree with your seeding. If we win a game, I think we're a 6 seed. Maybe even a 5 if we win the SEC tournament.

 

[statefanjosh]

A 2nd round payback matchup with Xavier would be nice.</p>

 

[drunkernhelldawg]

They could bump us to six, but I think it would be based on the emotion of the possibilities of this team. For example, the announcer in yesterday's game said that we could make the final four. I have heard other commentators touting our upside potential.

I also think it's more likely we go up to six than that we drop to eight. I think that even if we lose our first SECT game, we will still be a seven.

I also don't see us getting any better than five, even if we win the trophy in Atlanta.

Maroon Eagle, I appreciate this analysis. It saves me a lot of work. I hate to see it go down the board; I even think it's worthy of a sticky.</p>

 

[RebelBruiser]

then I think you'd rather be a 6 or 7 seed so that you can avoid the 1 seed for as long as possible. So I think you are in a good position right now.

 

[TexasHoopCoach]

Wayne Newton has said that the SEC title game finishes too late for the committee to consider the outcome and to factor that into the bracket.

Hell, maybe it was C.M., I just know it was one of the Newton boys.........

 

[Frances Drebin]

...with your placement of State. MSU is a five seed right now, I believe. They will stay there unless they get bounced early from the SECT, and they could move up to four with a good showing.

Also, of your number one seeds, I think three of them will lose in their conference tournaments, giving Memphis the likely overall number one, which they'll need if they are going to go to the final four. I don't see them beating Texas or Kansas in an Elite Eight matchup.

I also think UAB is in.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">...with your placement of State. MSU is a five seed right now, I believe. They will stay there unless they get bounced early from the SECT, and they could move up to four with a good showing.</span> <br style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> <br style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Also, of your number one seeds, I think three of them will lose in their conference tournaments, giving Memphis the likely overall number one, which they'll need if they are going to go to the final four. I don't see them beating Texas or Kansas in an Elite Eight matchup.</span> <br style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> <br style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">I also think UAB is in.</span>

If MSU had beaten Vanderbilt, I would have moved the Bulldogs to a 5-seed; and they could still move up to that level.</p>

I would not be surprised if multiple 1-seeds lost in their conference tournaments. I think it most likely Memphis would face Texas or Kansas in the Elite Eight too if seedings run to form.</p>As far as UAB is concerned, I think they're out at the moment due to a combination of the blowout loss at Memphis and too many bad losses to teams ranked below 100 in the RPI.

Doing some research for the purposes of discussion in this nafoom thread, I noticed that the number of colleges that have lost five games to teams ranked below 100 and earned at-large invites to the NCAA tournament is very small-- 1 since 1999. That's why I've been saying that Ole Miss is not in the tournament yet. UAB and Arkansas also have five losses to teams ranked below 100. Of the three, I think the Razorbacks have the best profile.

Edited to add: I believe it's more probable MSU moves to six than down to eight-- whether that requires one or two wins depends on how teams do in their conference tournaments. I think the most likely team that could fall from a 6-seed to a 7-seed is BYU. I believe UNLV will win the MWC tournament on their home court. If Alabama defeats Florida and then beats us in the quarterfinals, the 8-seed is in play for the Bulldogs.

 

[patdog]

And probably not even then. Our RPI is #40. We'll be seeded higher than our RPI, but #40 ain't anywhere near a 5-seed. Strictly going by RPI, we'd be a #10 seed. We won't be seeded that low, but we're looking at a 7-8 seed right now, depending on whether we win or lose our first SECT game. A win in the semi's would probably move us up to a #6.

 

[drunkernhelldawg]

What's the highest that a team with ten losses has ever been seeded?

I don't know the answer, but I'd be surprised if it is higher than five. I'm guessing that the answer is six.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

and Virginia was a 4-seed last year with a 19-10 record against Division 1 competition (20-10 overall, tied UNC for the ACC regular season title). Maryland was a 4-seed in 2004 with a 19-11 record (won the ACC tournament title). Finally, Indiana was a 4-seed in 2001 with a 21-12 record.

Edit to add information regarding Virginia & Indiana.

 

[Brutius]

that Virginia was a 4 seed last year and had an RPI of 51. People keep saying we will be a 6 or 7 seed because of our low RPI, that is a good example of someone doing good in one of the major conferences and having a much higher seed than their RPI.

The other two teams you listed, Maryland in 2004 and Indiana in 2001 were in the top 20 in RPI despite their records.

 

[RebelBruiser]

I just looked up Virginia from last year, and not only were they 19-10, they had an RPI of 55, which usually puts teams on the bubble. Yet somehow they got a 4 seed as you said. That's definitely an abnormal situation.

 

[Stormrider81]

a couple of wins in the Tourney could do us a lot of good.