Breaking down the 2016 Cats...season outlook!

UKErik

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
27,441
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It's been too long folks! Seems like Kentucky football ended about a hundred years ago [winking]. The Cats are back at it this coming weekend, but first up, how will the Big Blue look this season? Your guess is probably better than mine, but here goes!

OFFENSE
The first question I always ask myself is a pretty simple one. Will/can the line block? The second...what do we have at QB? I think those are the two biggest questions heading into Saturday. Reports from the summer and out of camp are encouraging on both fronts (especially with Barker). Last years tackle play gave me nightmares, so pardon me if I need to see something from those two positions before I believe improvement is imminent. My goodness though, if Kentucky gets better tackle play, look out (I think UK is going to be pretty good in the interior with Toth leading the way)!!! Boom Williams is one of the elite running backs in the SEC (and depth is alright). UK has a future pro at tight end in C.J. Conrad. I don't know that Kentucky has EVER been this deep at WR. You could make a case that this years group is one of the 2-3 best in the Southeastern Conference. Badet, Johnson, and Baker are all big time talents, and UK has more behind them. I honestly thought Shannon Dawson was going to do big things at UK. As it turns out, I couldn't have been more wrong. For whatever reason, Dawson/Stoops seemed to go together like peanut butter and ketchup. In comes Eddie Gran. Drew Barker is a dual threat player, and the Cats will run a ton of read/option this year. For whatever reason, Towles rarely ran the football out of that concept last season. It made for too much predictability, something this unit has to avoid this year. The keys to a big season offensively;

1. What will Kentucky get from the two tackle spots?
2. Can Drew Barker develop into a consistently accurate passer?
3. Can UK get more out of Boom Williams?

DEFENSE
The one constant that's absolutely throttled UK football over the years has been mediocre/horrid front seven play. Yes, we've had the occasional interior stud. We have a couple of DE's in the NFL right now. We've even had some LB's (Woodyard and Trevathan for example) do well at the next level. Generally though, SEC teams run through UK like a knife through hot butter. Will 2016 be any different? Like with OT, I'll need to see improvement before expecting it (if that makes any sense). The loss of Reggie Meant is big. UK's DL isn't deep, so losing a talented veteran hurts. Matt Elam looks like a new man, maybe 4/5'ths of the man he used to be (LOL)! Overall though, who steps up to play SEC level football? Bell? Middleton? Miggins? Someone else? There are just as many questions at LB. Depth will be a huge factor, as will chemistry. Guys like Ware, Jones, and Allen are still awfully young. Love is a first year Cat (redshirted in '15). Overall, the front seven might be a mess next weekend. Certainly, they'll get a big time test right out of the gate against Southern Miss. While the front seven might have more holes than swiss cheese, the secondary looks VERY solid. It's hard not to be excited about Westry/Baity/McClain. UK is also good at safety. With a more talented secondary, will we see a more aggressive approach from D.J. Eliot? IMO, Eliot has been, well, underwhelming thus far as DC. UK has typically sat back and tried the "bend but don't break" approach. I'm not a 3-4 fan to begin with, but it is what it is. Honestly, I'm not even sure Eliot has the horses this year to expect much. Time will tell. The three keys for this unit;

1. Pass rush...where is it going to come from?
2. Run defense...limited talent/depth on the DL combined with lack of chemistry at LB rarely equal a solid run defense.
3. Health...being brutally honest, the starting unit isn't exactly filled with future draft picks...injuries would be a killer.

CAN THE CATS WIN SEVEN
Assuming Drew Barker turns into a reliable quarterback, the Cats offense is going to flourish. The talent is there. Gran is an experienced OC that takes over a pretty talented unit. Defensively, I don't expect much. At all really. I do think the secondary is VERY talented, but the front seven is young and void of quality depth. The schedule isn't all that bad. Getting MSU, SC, and Vandy at home helps. Missouri will struggle this season. Georgia and Florida might be doable (especially Florida). Road trips to U of L, UT, and Alabama will likely turn out ugly. Honestly, I think six wins comes down to the season opener. Beat Southern Miss, and I like their chances to at least get six. Seven will require the offense to play consistently productive football. Luckily for UK, other teams on the schedule have issues as well. The offense SHOULD be good enough to win at least three OOC games and three SEC games. I say they win one more somewhere and finish 7-5.

GBB!!!
 
Last edited:

OFortuna

Junior
Nov 29, 2004
390
237
0
It's been too long folks! Seems like Kentucky football ended about a hundred years ago [winking]. The Cats are back at it this coming weekend, but first up, how will the Big Blue look this season? Your guess is probably better than mine, but here goes!

OFFENSE
The first question I always ask myself is a pretty simple one. Will/can the line block? The second...what do we have at QB? I think those are the two biggest questions heading into Saturday. Reports from the summer and out of camp are encouraging on both fronts (especially with Barker). Last years tackle play gave me nightmares, so pardon me if I need to see something from those two positions before I believe improvement is imminent. My goodness though, if Kentucky gets better tackle play, look out (I think UK is going to be pretty good in the interior with Toth leading the way)!!! Boom Williams is one of the elite running backs in the SEC (and depth is alright). UK has a future pro at tight end in C.J. Conrad. I don't know that Kentucky has EVER been this deep at WR. You could make a case that this years group is one of the 2-3 best in the Southeastern Conference. Badet, Johnson, and Baker are all big time talents, and UK has more behind them. I honestly thought Shannon Dawson was going to do big things at UK. As it turns out, I couldn't have been more wrong. For whatever reason, Dawson/Stoops seemed to go together like peanut butter and ketchup. In comes Eddie Gran. Drew Barker is a dual threat player, and the Cats will run a ton of read/option this year. For whatever reason, Towles rarely ran the football out of that concept last season. It made for too much predictability, something this unit has to avoid this year. The keys to a big season offensively;

1. What will Kentucky get from the two tackle spots?
2. Can Drew Barker develop into a consistently accurate passer?
3. Can UK get more out of Boom Williams?

DEFENSE
The one constant that's absolutely throttled UK football over the years has been mediocre/horrid front seven play. Yes, we've had the occasional interior stud. We have a couple of DE's in the NFL right now. We've even had some LB's (Woodyard and Trevathan for example) do well at the next level. Generally though, SEC teams run through UK like a knife through hot butter. Will 2016 be any different? Like with OT, I'll need to see improvement before expecting it (if that makes any sense). The loss of Reggie Meant is big. UK's DL isn't deep, so losing a talented veteran hurts. Matt Elam looks like a new man, maybe 4/5'ths of the man he used to be (LOL)! Overall though, who steps up to play SEC level football? Bell? Middleton? Miggins? Someone else? There are just as many questions at LB. Depth will be a huge factor, as will chemistry. Guys like Ware, Jones, and Allen are still awfully young. Love is a first year Cat (redshirted in '15). Overall, the front seven might be a mess next weekend. Certainly, they'll get a big time test right out of the gate against Southern Miss. While the front seven might have more holes than swiss cheese, the secondary looks VERY solid. It's hard not to be excited about Westry/Baity/McClain. UK is also good at safety. With a more talented secondary, will we see a more aggressive approach from D.J. Eliot? IMO, Eliot has been, well, underwhelming thus far as DC. UK has typically sat back and tried the "bend but don't break" approach. I'm not a 3-4 fan to begin with, but it is what it is. Honestly, I'm not even sure Eliot has the horses this year to expect much. Time will tell. The three keys for this unit;

1. Pass rush...where is it going to come from?
2. Run defense...limited talent/depth on the DL combined with lack of chemistry at LB rarely equal a solid run defense.
3. Health...being brutally honest, the starting unit isn't exactly filled with future draft picks...injuries would be a killer.

CAN THE CATS WIN SEVEN
Assuming Drew Barker turns into a reliable quarterback, the Cats offense is going to flourish. The talent is there. Gran is an experienced OC that takes over a pretty talented unit. Defensively, I don't expect much. At all really. I do think the secondary is VERY talented, but the front seven is young and void of quality depth. The schedule isn't all that bad. Getting MSU, SC, and Vandy at home helps. Missouri will struggle this season. Georgia and Florida might be doable (especially Florida). Road trips to U of L, UT, and Alabama will likely turn out ugly. Honestly, I think six wins comes down to the season opener. Beat Southern Miss, and I like their chances to at least get six. Seven will require the offense to play consistently productive football. Luckily for UK, other teams on the schedule have issues as well. The offense SHOULD be good enough to win at least three OOC games and three SEC games. I say they win one more somewhere and finish 7-5.

GBB!!!
 

OFortuna

Junior
Nov 29, 2004
390
237
0
Nice job, as usual Erik. One area you don't touch on, but which could have significant repercussions for both sides of the ball, is special teams/field position, something that hurt us badly last year. The particular concern/unknown right now is punting. Getting that area shored up would be especially beneficial to a defense that, as you point out, is already suspect.
 
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docholiday51

Heisman
Oct 19, 2001
22,011
26,718
0
You pretty much nailed it,the offensive line can't be much worse than it was last year.I guess that means it will have to be better,how much is the question. The issue that will tell the tale of the Cats this year is Barker,what can/can't he do at QB,he has enough talent around him to be successful,based on last year we just don't know enough to make a semi educated guess how things will work out

On defense (as you point out) the expectations are and should be low.On the positive side the secondary and LB's may give the line enough help that they(d-line) could make a decent showing.If Gran+ Barker & Co can move the chains the line gets more help.We will know early where we stand,I am glad we are playing a team like Sou. Miss right out of the gate,if we win that one then 6 wins are there for the taking if we are truly moving in the right direction

I hope it is not fools gold to put as much faith in Gran as I currently have,I think he will be a huge upgrade for us,we would have gotten to a bowl last year if he had been here(think Vandy)
 

Nuke99m.

All-American
Aug 30, 2002
8,616
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I thought I heard a stat the other day that surprised me. Stoops at UK has never lost a game that we were favored in. We could very well be favored against Missouri, Vandy and USC, as well as 3 out of 4 non conference games.
 

oboroCATfan

All-Conference
Sep 17, 2003
4,229
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I thought I heard a stat the other day that surprised me. Stoops at UK has never lost a game that we were favored in. We could very well be favored against Missouri, Vandy and USC, as well as 3 out of 4 non conference games.

We were favored against WKU and lost that one.
 

cole854

Heisman
Sep 11, 2012
10,156
22,638
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5 wins is realistic, and 6 w/ an upset somewhere. The 7/8 win talk are typical homer rants. UKErik knows better but can't take off the blinders.
 

Deeeefense

Heisman
Staff member
Aug 22, 2001
44,047
50,930
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KY has the second easiest schedule in the SEC this year and 90th in the country. After 4 consecutive recruiting classes for Stoops with a top 15 class that are now Juniors, the excuses are over. 6-7 wins is a must for Stoops this year.

wow, I'm not sure any SEC team could play the 90th toughest schedule, with all the other weak conferences out there. Phil Steele has us at 64 which still seems pretty low to me with #1 Bama & #6 Tennessee on the schedule. Florida, Georgia & UofL also in the top 25. Whoever handed us #90 I would love to see who they have at 80 - 89.
 

BigBlueTuckian

Sophomore
Jan 9, 2016
309
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I thought I heard a stat the other day that surprised me. Stoops at UK has never lost a game that we were favored in. We could very well be favored against Missouri, Vandy and USC, as well as 3 out of 4 non conference games.

Deceiving stat. With a record of 12-24 at UK it means Stoops has only been favored to win 1/3 of his games as the Wildcats' coach. Hopefully that improves to over 50%.
 

UKCatNnc

All-Conference
Sep 30, 2005
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Thanks UKErik. I hope that you are doing well and have recovered from the frustrations of last season.It is always good to read your posts. I agree with you comments, and like others above, I am concerned about special teams. I do believe special teams will be somewhat improved now that it is not being coached by a committee. Go Cats!!
 

ukalumni00

Heisman
Jun 22, 2005
23,360
39,123
113
wow, I'm not sure any SEC team could play the 90th toughest schedule, with all the other weak conferences out there. Phil Steele has us at 64 which still seems pretty low to me with #1 Bama & #6 Tennessee on the schedule. Florida, Georgia & UofL also in the top 25. Whoever handed us #90 I would love to see who they have at 80 - 89.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Not sure I agree either, but its one of the rankings out there. I am in the 50-60 camp. 64 seems too low.
 
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Deeeefense

Heisman
Staff member
Aug 22, 2001
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https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Not sure I agree either, but its one of the rankings out there. I am in the 50-60 camp. 64 seems too low.

LOL! They have USM at #89 and here is their schedule:

at Kentucky
Savannah State
Troy
at Texas El Paso
Rice
at Texas San Antonio
at Louisiana State
Marshall
Charlotte
at Old Dominion
at North Texas
Louisiana Tech

When I saw this I just started laughing and didn't look at any more.
 

HedleyLamarr

Senior
Oct 23, 2007
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Glad to see that you've recovered, somewhat, from the despair of winter. I see two big concerns for the Cats. Poor tackling/inability to stop the run. That has been a problem throughout Stoops tenure, and continued to be a concern during the fall camp. It will be tough to beat good teams if you can't stop the run. The other issue is QB depth. The Cats have little experience at QB, and even if Barker develops into a stud, it is likely that he will need backup through a tough twelve game campaign. Best of luck to the Wildcats in 2016!
 

Pike 96

All-Conference
Jun 7, 2010
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Glad to see that you've recovered, somewhat, from the despair of winter. I see two big concerns for the Cats. Poor tackling/inability to stop the run. That has been a problem throughout Stoops tenure, and continued to be a concern during the fall camp. It will be tough to beat good teams if you can't stop the run. The other issue is QB depth. The Cats have little experience at QB, and even if Barker develops into a stud, it is likely that he will need backup through a tough twelve game campaign. Best of luck to the Wildcats in 2016!

You could make the same statement about QB depth concern about 90% of the schools out there. Do you have the same concern about QB depth at UL? Lamar Jackson loves to run it much more than Barker and is one good hit away from the sidelines. Despite Bolins play against UK two years ago, which was good, he is an average QB. Put him in the game and UL is a totally different team. Not dynamic at all. And Pass isn't ready. As a matter of fact, I could see Petrino going back to Bonnofan if Jackson were to go down.

The DLine concern I agree with
 

Crootin

Redshirt
Jul 17, 2016
47
30
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LOL! They have USM at #89 and here is their schedule:

at Kentucky
Savannah State
Troy
at Texas El Paso
Rice
at Texas San Antonio
at Louisiana State
Marshall
Charlotte
at Old Dominion
at North Texas
Louisiana Tech

When I saw this I just started laughing and didn't look at any more.

It says right there at the top of the screen, in a big shadow-box, "NOTE: Until a team plays a game, this SOS rating simply shows their own predictive rating as a placeholder."

Notice how it reads like someone's Top 25 list. ;)
 

NCukcat62

All-Conference
Jul 22, 2007
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KY has the second easiest schedule in the SEC this year and 90th in the country. After 4 consecutive recruiting classes for Stoops with a top 15 class that are now Juniors, the excuses are over. 6-7 wins is a must for Stoops this year.
Yep. No more excuses. Obviously stoops won't get the boot but this year can determine support and recruiting in the future.
 

ajgcardman

All-Conference
Jan 23, 2006
10,376
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Erik, i totally agree with your assessment. Really can't find anything there to disagree with.

Hard for me to imagine the Cats NOT taking a noticeable step forward offensively. But defensively looks very suspect to me. The schedule again, though, looks surprisingly playable. I really think the Cats need to take advantage of this "rebuilding period" of the SEC East. They could (and probably should) have at least 6 or 7 wins when they go to Louisville.
 

Hjack

All-American
May 22, 2002
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I thought I heard a stat the other day that surprised me. Stoops at UK has never lost a game that we were favored in. We could very well be favored against Missouri, Vandy and USC, as well as 3 out of 4 non conference games.


I don't think we lost either game.:sunglasses:
 

Hjack

All-American
May 22, 2002
79,219
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It's been too long folks! Seems like Kentucky football ended about a hundred years ago [winking]. The Cats are back at it this coming weekend, but first up, how will the Big Blue look this season? Your guess is probably better than mine, but here goes!
GBB!!!

Erik, your preseason analysis always is my true indicator that UK football is about to begin. As usual, great information. And, as usual, thanks.
 

JC CATS

Heisman
Jun 18, 2009
23,517
12,221
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Thanks UKErik. I hope that you are doing well and have recovered from the frustrations of last season.It is always good to read your posts. I agree with you comments, and like others above, I am concerned about special teams. I do believe special teams will be somewhat improved now that it is not being coached by a committee. Go Cats!!
What he said and Thanks UKEric
 

merrimanm

Heisman
Dec 14, 2009
17,715
30,365
113
Before I even read this, let me just say that, football has officially started. When UKErik shows up, it is time to roll.
 

BoulderCat_rivals187983

All-Conference
May 22, 2002
7,871
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Nice to see you back. Seems like it boils down to can the offense be good enough to overcome the defense likely not being so good except for the secondary. I want to believe we'll win 7, maybe even 8, but I'm sticking with 6 as my prediction. Surely we can find 3 SEC wins among Florida, USC, Vandy, Missouri, Miss. St., and Georgia. Like you I think it will be ugly at 'Bama and UT. But first I just hope we beat S. Miss. Lose that game, and it could change the tone of the entire season.
 

jauk11

Heisman
Dec 6, 2006
60,631
18,638
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Erik, you didn't give us your predictions. Great job though.

Yeah, and forget about my threat in the other thread, after I win my lawsuit against Steele, I won't need any money, LOL. I hope you are able to get an analysis for SM soon though, I always look forward to the game analysis.

Yeah, and I agree that we should go bowling, with seven wins likely.
 

Cats_2010

Heisman
Jan 8, 2010
11,172
18,669
103
If the offense ends up being as good and improved as the hype is then winning 6 games should definitely happen. I would like to see our defense be more aggressive and try and force turnovers which winning the turnover battle would be huge for us trying to get that 6th or 7th win. Playing the bend but don't break defense simply is not going to work for this unit, it is like playing not to lose which never works out very well.
 

KyDore

All-American
Sep 11, 2005
7,493
7,061
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A Fair and Balanced question ...... has UKErik's projection evolved since January or simply succumbed to peer pressure?

Defensively, Kentucky is going to be woefully young at LB. Linebacker is the toughest position to learn for young defenders, so that is going to hurt throughout the season. The defensive line will likely be a little worse than this years. So on defense, I'd imagine any good offense will do to DJ Eliot what they've consistently done to DJ Eliot. It's sobering to think about the yardage put up on a senior laden UK defense by U of L and Vandy, two struggling offenses. Next season, the UK defense will probably be a bit worse than this years.

On offense, UK is going to be young and inexperienced at QB. The o-skill talent will be good. OL is going to be a weakness again, though that could change in 2017 (because UK is bringing in three big time OL prospects).

The schedule is tough. Because UK will be young at QB, and because UK will likely be somewhere in the 12-14 range in the SEC in terms of line production, you have to think a 3-4 win season is on the horizon.

GBB!!!
 
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