As wins continue to "pile up" for Kentucky, the games only get bigger. Heading into action this weekend, the Cats trail Florida by just half a game in the SEC Eastern Division. A UK win in Columbia combined with a Florida loss to Georgia would send Kentucky into November in sole possession of 1st place. Last week's win against Mississippi State could/should have been a whole lot more impressive on the scoreboard. The Cats were just a few yards away from taking a 41-24 lead with under ten minutes to go when disaster struck. Still, give Kentucky credit for winning in dramatic fashion. While UK was busy keeping their title hopes alive, Missouri was floundering away their homecoming game against Middle Tennessee State. The 2-5 Tigers are winless in league play while struggling mightily on the defensive side of the football. This looks to be a game that UK could certainly win, but the Cats aren't good enough to assume anything. Injuries have taken a toll on both teams (especially Missouri). Can Kentucky take advantage?
Line: Kentucky +4.5
Series: Tied 3-3
Game Time/Television: Noon eastern/SEC Network
Kentucky offense vs. Missouri defense: Advantage Kentucky
The Missouri defense seems to have totally collapsed. Take out the game against I-AA Delaware State (0-7 on the season), and their "D" would be among the bottom five nationally. Against Middle Tennessee, the Tigers allowed a whopping 311 yards rushing (595 yards total). Making matters worse, Missouri is battling a serious injury bug. MU will likely be missing starters at every level of their defense, including stud linebacker Mike Scherer. Compounding Missouri's defensive issues will be a much improved Kentucky offense. Against what was the #38 defense in college football (Mississippi State), UK put up 40 points and over 550 yards of total offense. The Cats offensive line has gone from question mark to strength. The double headed RB monster of Williams/Snell has been outstanding. UK's rush offense has climbed to #43 in the nation. No doubt, Eddie Gran will lean heavily on the ground game this weekend. Gran's gameplan last week was a thing of beauty. Gran mixed up the run, pass, and "trickeration" like a pro! One interesting aspect this weekend...how much respect will Missouri give to UK's passing game? Stephen Johnson continues to improve (rough 1st half, good 2nd half against State). He has a terrific group of WR's and an outstanding TE. Will the Tigers try to defend UK's run game with 6-7 in the box, or will they load up against the run and force Johnson to beat them? As bad as MU has been on defense, it might not matter. Based on the 3-4 games I've seen this week from the Tigers, UK will have a solid edge with OL vs. MU front seven. UK also matches up extremely well in the passing game. If there's a concern from UK's perspective, it has to be Johnson and turnovers. If he plays a clean game , the Kentucky offense should absolutely roll.
Kentucky defense vs. Missouri offense: Slight edge Missouri
At first glance, MU has put up some ridiculous numbers offensively. A closer look reveals those numbers are SIGNIFICANTLY inflated based on OOC competition. So how good is the Tiger offense? Probably not as good as the numbers indicate, but good. They have a good offensive line. Their freshman running back (Crocket) has put up 100+ yards in three of his last four games (including 145 at Florida). Witter is also a productive back. They have good athletes at WR (led by J'Mon Moore...had a TD vs. UK last year). QB Drew Lock has had a rough go of it against league foes (3 TD, 6 INT). Lock completed just 20-40 passes last week (MTSU). In league play, he's completing less than 50% of this throws (additionally, Lock isn't a major threat in the running game). The thing MU does that's different is their pace of play. I haven't seen anyone get to the LOS and snap the ball as quickly as they do. That will be challenging for a thin UK defense. I think the key this week is to shutdown the Tiger running game. Making them one dimensional with a quarterback that struggles with accuracy would be huge. Best guess, because Lock hasn't proven to be a guy that's going to pick you apart with consistency, I think UK will focus on stopping the Tiger ground game. The Cats secondary matches up well with most groups of WR's, Missouri's included. Interestingly, Missouri doesn't throw to their backs very often, so stopping the intermediate stuff on 3rd down will probably dictate good or not-so-good day for the defense.
Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
UK ranks 26th nationally returning kicks. MU's kick return defense ranks in the bottom ten (122nd). Could this be the week Kentucky returns one for six? Both schools are ranked in the top 25 in PR defense (UK 19th, MU 23rd). Austin MacGinnis has developed into one of the nations best kickers. His 51-yard game winner last week was his first such kick as a Cat. For his career, MacGinnis is 16-23 from 40+ yards.
Missouri will win if...their running game hits on all cylinders while the defense forces a couple of turnovers. The only P5 school with a worse turnover margin than Kentucky is Kansas, so scoring some cheap points isn't only not out of the question for MU, it might be likely.
Kentucky will win if...Stephen Johnson takes care of the football and the running game picks up where it left off last week. Defensively, redzone stops will be huge. Missouri is going to move the football between the 20's...UK's "D" has to turn those drives into FGA's. Not easy...Missouri is averaging just one FGA per game so far.
Prediction...Kentucky 41 Missouri 31...Because both defenses are a little beat up (well, MU's is a LOT beat up), and because both offenses have been playing well, there's no reason to expect either offense to struggle. I like Kentucky because the UK offense vs. MU defense matchup could and probably should be a significant edge for the Cats. Avoiding turnovers will be important. You can't afford to give a good offense like Missouri's cheap points.
Previous Picks
(6-1 S/U, 4-3 ATS)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
Florida 23 Kentucky10
Kentucky 48 New Mexico State 13
Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26
Alabama 55 Kentucky 7
Kentucky 23 Vanderbilt 13
Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 17
GBB!!!
Line: Kentucky +4.5
Series: Tied 3-3
Game Time/Television: Noon eastern/SEC Network
Kentucky offense vs. Missouri defense: Advantage Kentucky
The Missouri defense seems to have totally collapsed. Take out the game against I-AA Delaware State (0-7 on the season), and their "D" would be among the bottom five nationally. Against Middle Tennessee, the Tigers allowed a whopping 311 yards rushing (595 yards total). Making matters worse, Missouri is battling a serious injury bug. MU will likely be missing starters at every level of their defense, including stud linebacker Mike Scherer. Compounding Missouri's defensive issues will be a much improved Kentucky offense. Against what was the #38 defense in college football (Mississippi State), UK put up 40 points and over 550 yards of total offense. The Cats offensive line has gone from question mark to strength. The double headed RB monster of Williams/Snell has been outstanding. UK's rush offense has climbed to #43 in the nation. No doubt, Eddie Gran will lean heavily on the ground game this weekend. Gran's gameplan last week was a thing of beauty. Gran mixed up the run, pass, and "trickeration" like a pro! One interesting aspect this weekend...how much respect will Missouri give to UK's passing game? Stephen Johnson continues to improve (rough 1st half, good 2nd half against State). He has a terrific group of WR's and an outstanding TE. Will the Tigers try to defend UK's run game with 6-7 in the box, or will they load up against the run and force Johnson to beat them? As bad as MU has been on defense, it might not matter. Based on the 3-4 games I've seen this week from the Tigers, UK will have a solid edge with OL vs. MU front seven. UK also matches up extremely well in the passing game. If there's a concern from UK's perspective, it has to be Johnson and turnovers. If he plays a clean game , the Kentucky offense should absolutely roll.
Kentucky defense vs. Missouri offense: Slight edge Missouri
At first glance, MU has put up some ridiculous numbers offensively. A closer look reveals those numbers are SIGNIFICANTLY inflated based on OOC competition. So how good is the Tiger offense? Probably not as good as the numbers indicate, but good. They have a good offensive line. Their freshman running back (Crocket) has put up 100+ yards in three of his last four games (including 145 at Florida). Witter is also a productive back. They have good athletes at WR (led by J'Mon Moore...had a TD vs. UK last year). QB Drew Lock has had a rough go of it against league foes (3 TD, 6 INT). Lock completed just 20-40 passes last week (MTSU). In league play, he's completing less than 50% of this throws (additionally, Lock isn't a major threat in the running game). The thing MU does that's different is their pace of play. I haven't seen anyone get to the LOS and snap the ball as quickly as they do. That will be challenging for a thin UK defense. I think the key this week is to shutdown the Tiger running game. Making them one dimensional with a quarterback that struggles with accuracy would be huge. Best guess, because Lock hasn't proven to be a guy that's going to pick you apart with consistency, I think UK will focus on stopping the Tiger ground game. The Cats secondary matches up well with most groups of WR's, Missouri's included. Interestingly, Missouri doesn't throw to their backs very often, so stopping the intermediate stuff on 3rd down will probably dictate good or not-so-good day for the defense.
Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
UK ranks 26th nationally returning kicks. MU's kick return defense ranks in the bottom ten (122nd). Could this be the week Kentucky returns one for six? Both schools are ranked in the top 25 in PR defense (UK 19th, MU 23rd). Austin MacGinnis has developed into one of the nations best kickers. His 51-yard game winner last week was his first such kick as a Cat. For his career, MacGinnis is 16-23 from 40+ yards.
Missouri will win if...their running game hits on all cylinders while the defense forces a couple of turnovers. The only P5 school with a worse turnover margin than Kentucky is Kansas, so scoring some cheap points isn't only not out of the question for MU, it might be likely.
Kentucky will win if...Stephen Johnson takes care of the football and the running game picks up where it left off last week. Defensively, redzone stops will be huge. Missouri is going to move the football between the 20's...UK's "D" has to turn those drives into FGA's. Not easy...Missouri is averaging just one FGA per game so far.
Prediction...Kentucky 41 Missouri 31...Because both defenses are a little beat up (well, MU's is a LOT beat up), and because both offenses have been playing well, there's no reason to expect either offense to struggle. I like Kentucky because the UK offense vs. MU defense matchup could and probably should be a significant edge for the Cats. Avoiding turnovers will be important. You can't afford to give a good offense like Missouri's cheap points.
Previous Picks
(6-1 S/U, 4-3 ATS)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
Florida 23 Kentucky10
Kentucky 48 New Mexico State 13
Kentucky 31 South Carolina 26
Alabama 55 Kentucky 7
Kentucky 23 Vanderbilt 13
Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 17
GBB!!!
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