Breeders Cup thread

Tskware

Heisman
Jan 26, 2003
24,938
21,305
113
Early entries are out linked below. Cannot seriously believe Swiss Skydiver will pass up the distaff to go after the Classic, distaff pays $3-4M purse itself, against a much weaker field (Monomoy Girl being the obvious standout).

Classic is as deep and talented as I have ever seen, you can get 4 or 5 to 1 on several tremendous racehorses.

Comments and thoughts?



http://www.brisnet.com/content/2020/10/official-2020-breeders-cup-pre-entries/
 

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,478
14,652
113
The post position draw is going on right now. You know your bored when you watch post position draws. Hopefully the PP's will be out later tonight.
Without seeing the PP's I think I like Tom's D'Etat in the classic. Don't worry about his 3rd in the Whitney. He basically fell out of the gate and ran a good race to finish 3rd.
 

btodd0224 n/a?

All-Conference
Jun 14, 2003
1,285
1,538
78
Not saying he can’t win but that was just a bobbled start in a route and that wouldn’t have made him lose in a field of 5 if he was that much better as the odds suggested.
 

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,478
14,652
113
My multi race exotics for the day.

Pick 3 races 1 through 3 1,2,4,6,9/9,11/1,2,6
Race 1-in all fairness, I don't like anybody
1 Highly Motivated-Castellano and Chad Brown team-barely beaten 1st out on a muddy track-won 2nd
2 Roderick-threw out the last race because it was on turf-threw out race before since it looked like a troubled trip and was taken up-including because of the maiden victory and price
4 Upstriker-nice maiden win-speed and fade last out cutting back in distance-my top choice
6 Quick Tempo-don't really care about the first 2 races even though he won first time out because one was on synthetic and one was turf-really just including because of the last Beyer for his first time on dirt-I know Beyer's aren't a great way of handicapping a race but the numbers are what they are
9 Saffa's Day-good maiden win at the same track-like Asmussen and Santana team sprinting

Race 2
9 The Grass is Blue-Don't like that his maiden win was in a weak claiming race but at least he dominated-huge trainer upgrade after that with another good win in allowance company-also a closer in a race with a lot of speed
11 Farsighted-the other closer in a race with a lot of speed

Race 3
1 Enforceable-seems quick enough-no recent results but all on the dirt
2 No Word-again, seems fast enough but seems to get himself in trouble a lot-looking for a better trip today-last 3 losses have been by less than a combined 2 lenghts
6 Fancy Liquor-looks like the best of the speed and the other 2 are way outside of him-should be able to get out


Pick 4 races 4-7 1,2,4,9/5,6,8/14/2,5,6,9

Race 4-I wish I had the money to have them all
1 Bye Bye J-bad start 2 back but that was off a layoff with an outside trip-also gets Santana back
2 Amy's Challenge-good at the distance-she's consistent if nothing else
4 Into Chocolate-throw out the race 2 back and she fit's nicely-like the price
9 Royal Chocolate-4 wins and 2 seconds at the distance-Castellano and Brown

Race 5-really just looking for someone that can get the distance, especially on dirt so I hate the race
5 Tenfold-because I want to play the Pick4 so I have to take someone
6 You're to Blame-because I want to play the Pick 4 so I have to take someone
8 Ry's the Guy-same as other 2

Race 6
14 Golden Pal-appears to be far and away the best horse in the race and I like the outside post in turf sprints

Race 7
2 New Mandate-won 3 straight in Europe with Frankie Dettori on board now
5 Cadillac-competitive in a group 1 in Europe last out with a group 2 second by a half length before that
6 Mutasaabeq-had a nice closing kick to win last out-one bad race before that looks like a troubled trip
9 Battleground-nice group 2 win last out-Ryan Moore and Aiden O'Brien team up


Pick 4 races 7-10 2,5,6,9/7/4,5,8,10/5,7,9

Race 7
Same as above

Race 8
7 Princess Noor-I realize the Beyers aren't necessarily there but he's been so dominant that it's being geared down at the end all 3 races-oh yeah and Bob Baffert

Race 9
4 Plum Ali-nice back to back wins in stakes after breaking the maiden-like Christophe Clement on the turf
5 Aunt Pearl-2 really solid wins to start the career-if you don't know who Brad Cox is you will soon
8 Mother Earth-competitive against better competition in Europe-see about about Moore and O'Brien especially at 20-1 on the morning line
10 Campanelle-seriously considered singling this horse-broke maiden easily at Gulfstream and then went to Europe to win a group 1 and a group 2

Race 10
5 Essential Quality-looks like a reliable closer in a race with just about everyone else being a speed horse
7 Jackie's Warrior-I don't think there is any question that he is the fastest horse but first time around 2 turns with a tone of speed
9 Sittin On Go-the other closer I like with all of the speed
 

Tskware

Heisman
Jan 26, 2003
24,938
21,305
113
My multi race exotics for the day.

Pick 3 races 1 through 3 1,2,4,6,9/9,11/1,2,6
Race 1-in all fairness, I don't like anybody
1 Highly Motivated-Castellano and Chad Brown team-barely beaten 1st out on a muddy track-won 2nd
2 Roderick-threw out the last race because it was on turf-threw out race before since it looked like a troubled trip and was taken up-including because of the maiden victory and price
4 Upstriker-nice maiden win-speed and fade last out cutting back in distance-my top choice
6 Quick Tempo-don't really care about the first 2 races even though he won first time out because one was on synthetic and one was turf-really just including because of the last Beyer for his first time on dirt-I know Beyer's aren't a great way of handicapping a race but the numbers are what they are
9 Saffa's Day-good maiden win at the same track-like Asmussen and Santana team sprinting

Race 2
9 The Grass is Blue-Don't like that his maiden win was in a weak claiming race but at least he dominated-huge trainer upgrade after that with another good win in allowance company-also a closer in a race with a lot of speed
11 Farsighted-the other closer in a race with a lot of speed

Race 3
1 Enforceable-seems quick enough-no recent results but all on the dirt
2 No Word-again, seems fast enough but seems to get himself in trouble a lot-looking for a better trip today-last 3 losses have been by less than a combined 2 lenghts
6 Fancy Liquor-looks like the best of the speed and the other 2 are way outside of him-should be able to get out


Pick 4 races 4-7 1,2,4,9/5,6,8/14/2,5,6,9

Race 4-I wish I had the money to have them all
1 Bye Bye J-bad start 2 back but that was off a layoff with an outside trip-also gets Santana back
2 Amy's Challenge-good at the distance-she's consistent if nothing else
4 Into Chocolate-throw out the race 2 back and she fit's nicely-like the price
9 Royal Chocolate-4 wins and 2 seconds at the distance-Castellano and Brown

Race 5-really just looking for someone that can get the distance, especially on dirt so I hate the race
5 Tenfold-because I want to play the Pick4 so I have to take someone
6 You're to Blame-because I want to play the Pick 4 so I have to take someone
8 Ry's the Guy-same as other 2

Race 6
14 Golden Pal-appears to be far and away the best horse in the race and I like the outside post in turf sprints

Race 7
2 New Mandate-won 3 straight in Europe with Frankie Dettori on board now
5 Cadillac-competitive in a group 1 in Europe last out with a group 2 second by a half length before that
6 Mutasaabeq-had a nice closing kick to win last out-one bad race before that looks like a troubled trip
9 Battleground-nice group 2 win last out-Ryan Moore and Aiden O'Brien team up


Pick 4 races 7-10 2,5,6,9/7/4,5,8,10/5,7,9

Race 7
Same as above

Race 8
7 Princess Noor-I realize the Beyers aren't necessarily there but he's been so dominant that it's being geared down at the end all 3 races-oh yeah and Bob Baffert

Race 9
4 Plum Ali-nice back to back wins in stakes after breaking the maiden-like Christophe Clement on the turf
5 Aunt Pearl-2 really solid wins to start the career-if you don't know who Brad Cox is you will soon
8 Mother Earth-competitive against better competition in Europe-see about about Moore and O'Brien especially at 20-1 on the morning line
10 Campanelle-seriously considered singling this horse-broke maiden easily at Gulfstream and then went to Europe to win a group 1 and a group 2

Race 10
5 Essential Quality-looks like a reliable closer in a race with just about everyone else being a speed horse
7 Jackie's Warrior-I don't think there is any question that he is the fastest horse but first time around 2 turns with a tone of speed
9 Sittin On Go-the other closer I like with all of the speed

Good job, give me some pick 3 thoughts for tomorrow. Distaff is a 2 horse race, I love Art Collector at 6-1 and #1PP in the dirt mile.
 
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Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,478
14,652
113
That really is fake news!! :D
It just shows that you need to know who is explaining things to you, especially when it comes to horse racing. I remember one Derby day there was an allowance optional claiming race coming up and they put Fred Cowgill on and he tried to explain it. I remember looking at my friend and saying "I know exactly what an allowance optional claimer is and I have no idea what he just said." I don't remember what he said, I just know it was wrong.
 

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,478
14,652
113
Glenn, can anyone beat Rushing Fall?
I need to look at it again better in the morning but they say you can take about 12 points off the Euro speed figures to get to a Beyer. Using that philosophy, the 7 (Terebellum) and the 11 (Audarya) certainly fit against her. It's really why I don't like the PP's from Europe though. You can't really see how a race was run. I won't be singling anyone in this race though.

By the way, my picks sucked today so there is that.
 

Tskware

Heisman
Jan 26, 2003
24,938
21,305
113
I need to look at it again better in the morning but they say you can take about 12 points off the Euro speed figures to get to a Beyer. Using that philosophy, the 7 (Terebellum) and the 11 (Audarya) certainly fit against her. It's really why I don't like the PP's from Europe though. You can't really see how a race was run. I won't be singling anyone in this race though.

By the way, my picks sucked today so there is that.
Well it's kind of hard to pick 75 to 1 and 30-1 horses to win and a 50 to 1 horse to run 2nd. You have to be clairvoyant to do that. The payouts were insane!
 

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,478
14,652
113
Come on Ryan Moore. I need yo u big time in the Turf. I went all/single/single/all. If he can win this next race I will have the pick 4 and a 73-1 shot won the first leg. Monomoy Girl just got me through my first single.
 

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,478
14,652
113
Brutal day today. I was 3 for 4 in the pick 4 on races 4-7. I missed the 6th race where I singled. I was down the the horse I took and the horse that won was the other one I considered. I took the wrong one and that was $917. Lost and exacta by a nose in the 8th race with 18-1 on top. I was down to 2 horses in this race and I took the wrong one. I had them all in the Classic. Had I chose the correct one the payout would have been between $2,303 and $46,493. Just brutal.
 

Tskware

Heisman
Jan 26, 2003
24,938
21,305
113
I am in a cartel with more than $2000 invested and so far we are getting almost completely blanked maybe got a $100 back on the day. Had no luck whatsoever
 

Glenn's Take

Heisman
May 20, 2012
12,478
14,652
113
$4,556 is what not taking the other single in the late pick 4 cost me. So being down to 2 horses and taking the wrong one both times cost me $5,473. I'm going to sit around and drink and mope tonight.
 

vhcat70

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
57,418
38,482
0
So why is that females compete so much better against males on turf vs. on dirt?
 

Tskware

Heisman
Jan 26, 2003
24,938
21,305
113
So why is that females compete so much better against males on turf vs. on dirt?
Can't answer that but one point I will remember is that Kenny Mcpeek stated that older mares tend to beat the younger horses in the distaff like Beholder over Songbird and Monomoy Girl over Swiss Skydiver. It does not hold true in the Classic but it does seem to be so in the Distaff
 

cole854

Heisman
Sep 11, 2012
10,156
22,638
0
Can't answer that but one point I will remember is that Kenny Mcpeek stated that older mares tend to beat the younger horses in the distaff like Beholder over Songbird and Monomoy Girl over Swiss Skydiver. It does not hold true in the Classic but it does seem to be so in the Distaff

Beholder won at age 3 over the 2 time defending champion, Royal Delta.

Monomoy Girl won at age 3 over the prior year Oaks winner and filly of the year, Abel Tasman.

There are always exceptions to whatever "rule" is out there in horse racing.
 

Tskware

Heisman
Jan 26, 2003
24,938
21,305
113
Beholder won at age 3 over the 2 time defending champion, Royal Delta.

Monomoy Girl won at age 3 over the prior year Oaks winner and filly of the year, Abel Tasman.

There are always exceptions to whatever "rule" is out there in horse racing.

"tend to" does not equal a "rule", but I get your point and generally agree with it . . . but you have to go with some criteria, even with exotics, you can't bet on every horse in the field.