Can the Big Ten Win Ten?

[Wrestleknownothing]

91% of champions come from the top 4 seeds. With 20 of the 40 top seeds the Big Ten dominates this space.



The expectation is that the conference will win 6 of the 10 weights with those seeds.



But what are the chances they sweep the ten weights?



Well, not that good really. But 7 certainly is not out of the question. And even 8 is not unreasonable. Nine is a long shot. And 10 is a moonshot.

 

[Dogwelder]

.. And 10 is a moonshot.

If 0.4% is a moonshot, wouldn’t that mean 249 dead (or failed) astronauts for every astronaut that made it to the moon?

 

[Matter7172]

Let's write in 7 PSU guys who are #1 seeds, not just because we're homers. 133 - could it be Blaze or Davino? I think better than 50% chance. 141 - Mendez - write that one in, too. So we're down to 285. Can someone from B1G get that? I'd say a 25% chance.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

If 0.4% is a moonshot, wouldn’t that mean 250 dead/failed astronauts for every astronaut that made it to the moon?

I am using the investing definition of moonshot rather than the space travel definition. But given the number of failed attempts, if there had been astronauts on those early rockets.....

 

[Dogwelder]

I am using the investing definition of moonshot rather than the space travel definition. But given the number of failed attempts, if there had been astronauts on those early rockets.....

Yeah, I’m making fun of the investing definition of moonshot. It’s a very poor metaphor, as used. People use it to mean something with low chance of success. If it were going to be a good metaphor, it would be used to mean something that takes a lot of resources and effort to succeed at.

Edit: I have seen it used to mean an effort that would have a dramatic, wonderful, big-deal payoff. That usage does make some sense to me, but only if not accompanied by very low chance of success.

 

[El_Jefe]

Yeah, I’m making fun of the investing definition of moonshot. It’s a very poor metaphor, as used. People use it to mean something with low chance of success. If it were going to be a good metaphor, it would be used to mean something that takes a lot of resources and effort to succeed at.

Edit: I have seen it used to mean an effort that would have a dramatic, wonderful, big-deal payoff. That usage does make some sense to me, but only if not accompanied by very low chance of success.

Moon shot:

 

[PSU Mike]

If 0.4% is a moonshot, wouldn’t that mean 249 dead (or failed) astronauts for every astronaut that made it to the moon?

How did Fredo get into this discussion?

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Delete

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

91% of champions come from the top 4 seeds. With 20 of the 40 top seeds the Big Ten dominates this space.



The expectation is that the conference will win 6 of the 10 weights with those seeds.



But what are the chances they sweep the ten weights?



Well, not that good really. But 7 certainly is not out of the question. And even 8 is not unreasonable. Nine is a long shot. And 10 is a moonshot.

Those numbers show how dominant the B1G is. To equal the number of top four seeds of the next five conferences combined, including the Big 12, is amazing.

 

[Just another PSU Fan]

as much as I like numbers and data ... gut feeling is no.

 

[Still in State Colllege]

If 0.4% is a moonshot, wouldn’t that mean 249 dead (or failed) astronauts for every astronaut that made it to the moon?

Would you really "kill" all those guys on a Hollywood set? It's the movies success is much more uplifting.

 

[pawrstlersinpa]

91% of champions come from the top 4 seeds. With 20 of the 40 top seeds the Big Ten dominates this space.



The expectation is that the conference will win 6 of the 10 weights with those seeds.



But what are the chances they sweep the ten weights?



Well, not that good really. But 7 certainly is not out of the question. And even 8 is not unreasonable. Nine is a long shot. And 10 is a moonshot.

What % of Penn State's top 4 seeds have become champions since wrestling began in 2009?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

What % of Penn State's top 4 seeds have become champions since wrestling began in 2009?

I can find no record of wrestling existing as early as 2009, but beginning in 2010 it is 37 of 73, or 50.7%.

But that is a different denominator than the above.

The fair comparison is that the field wins only 19.2% of the time when a top 4 seed (101 of 527).

 

[pawrstlersinpa]

I can find no record of wrestling existing as early as 2009, but beginning in 2010 it is 37 of 73, or 50.7%.

But that is a different denominator than the above.

The fair comparison is that the field wins only 19.2% of the time when a top 4 seed (101 of 527).

The first ever NCAA championship occurred in 2010, but the sport began on April 17, 2009.

Thanks for running the numbers. 2.64x is wild.