I will be writing a seasonal UK football preview and also weekly previews for each game. I am posting my Big Blue Preview 2016 Opponent Breakdown here, hope everyone enjoys, feel free to hit me up with questions or comments. (Posted in multiple parts due to character limit)
2015 Record: 9-5, 7-1 (C-USA)
Head Coach: Jay Hopson (1st season)
Biggest Strength: A talented backfield featuring QB Nick Mullens and RB Ito Smith.
Biggest Question Mark: How much will the departure of Head Coach Todd Monken hurt the Golden Eagles?
BBP Win Expectancy: 60%
Team Summary: Former Head Coach Todd Monken resurrected the Golden Eagles back to relevance in 2015 after several down years but bolted for the NFL following the season, becoming the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator. However, the cupboard in Hattiesburg was not left bare and USM has ample weaponry to compete for the CUSA title in 2016. A familiar, perhaps infamous name to Big Blue fans will make his debut as the Golden Eagle’s Offensive Coordinator. Shannon Dawson was hired by first year Head Coach Jay Hopson (formerly HC at Alcorn State) to run the offense despite coming off a lackluster year in Lexington as UK’s OC. Wide Receiver D.J. Thompson will provide Mullens at least one solid target and a slew of JUCO WR transfers look to figure into the receiving corps mix for Dawson’s attack. The Golden Eagles’ defense returns several solid pass rushers including DE Dylan Bradley who finished with 6.5 sacks in 2015.
Bottom Line: Jay Hopson inherits a talented two deep roster and the Golden Eagles seem poised for a solid 2016 campaign provided the program doesn’t falter in the wake of Monken’s departure. USM will provide a tougher test for Big Blue than a typical opening game opponent.
Prediction: In what will undoubtedly be a raucous atmosphere at Commonwealth Stadium for the 7:30 PM kickoff, BBP looks for the Cats to come into 2016 with a bang. The fact former maligned OC Shannon Dawson is on the opposite sideline will not be lost on any of the Cats and I expect many offensive players to see this opportunity as a personal invitation to “stick it” to their former play caller. New Wildcat OC Eddie Gran will have the offense clicking and the Defense will stymie the Golden Eagles enough for Big Blue to open the season with a 42-28 win over Brett Favre’s alma mater.
Florida Gators
2015 Record: 10-4, 7-1 (SEC)
Head Coach: Jim McElwain (2nd season)
Biggest Strength: A defense loaded with playmakers like CB Jalen Tabor.
Biggest Question Mark: Will one of the JUCO transfers step up and adequately fill the void at QB?
BBP Win Expectancy: 35%
Team Summary: Jim McElwain’s first season at the helm of the Gators was a success by any objective measure. Coming off a 7-5 campaign in 2014, McElwain stepped in leading the Gators to a 7-1 mark in the SEC in 2015 and a berth in the SEC title game. A lopsided bowl loss to Michigan aside, the Gators 2015 season was a big improvement over 2014 and could’ve been even better if not for the PED related suspension and subsequent transfer (to West Virginia) of QB Will Grier. In Grier’s absence, the Gator’s struggled at QB with Treon Harris (also departed) who failed to complete 50% of his passes in 6 of their final 7 games. In come transfer QBs Luke Del Rio (Oregon State) and Austin Appleby (Purdue) who will vie for the starting job. If Del Rio, who is the son of Raiders Head Coach Jack Del Rio can provide steady QB play the Gators can lean on their stout defense and should again be poised to contend for the SEC East crown. UF’s offense will feature star WR Antonio Calloway and a bruising JUCO RB transfer in 230 pound Mark Thompson. An athletic, rangy defense which was 8th in the nation in total defense last year is poised to pick up right where it left off. Despite losing multiple players to the NFL the Gators have plenty returning to pick up the slack, including a projected top 10 pick at CB in Jalen Tabor.
Bottom Line: If Luke Del Rio emerges as an adequate QB and the Gators’ defense continues its stingy ways UF should again compete for the SEC East crown. Also keep an eye on JUCO transfer kicker Eddy Pineiro who will look to improve on the Gators dreadful 7-17 conversion rate on field goals from 2015. BBP thinks Pineiro’s powerful leg will be needed for at least one late game bomb if the Gators hope to get back to Atlanta.
Prediction: The Cats have not beaten the Gators since 1987 and BBP does not see that changing this year. 2014 and 2015 saw the Cats poised to end the decades long losing streak but a win did not materialize in either game for Big Blue. Members of Big Blue Nation undoubtedly cringe at the thought of the play clock fiasco from late in the 2014 game and think of what might’ve been. This year BBP sees the Gators stingy defense standing tough at home and limiting the Cats en route to a close victory. However, the shaky QB situation and the promise of a powerful offense for UK make this contest far from a foregone conclusion despite it being held at The Swamp. BBP says Gators 24, Cats 17, but keep an eye on this game as a potential upset chance for Stoops and company.
New Mexico State Aggies
2015 Record: 3-9, 3-5 (Sun Belt)
Head Coach: Doug Martin (4th season)
Biggest Strength: RB Larry Rose III
Biggest Question Mark: Can the Aggies horrific defense, which allowed over 500 yards per game improve enough to make NMSU respectable?
BBP Win Expectancy: 90%
Team Summary: Former UK Head Coach and Air Raid pioneer Hal Mumme roamed the sidelines in Las Cruces from 2005 to 2008 compiling a dreadful 11-38 record as the Aggies’ Head Coach; and not much has improved for NMSU since. The Aggies have not won more than 4 games since 2004 and worse yet are being booted from the Sun Belt following the 2017 season. Essentially the Aggies must use this period as an audition in hopes another league invites them to join. RB Larry Rose III ran for over 1100 yards as a freshman last season and should be the Aggies best offensive weapon. A host of JUCO defensive lineman hope to shore up a porous defense that was among the worst in the FBS las year.
Bottom Line: The Aggies have not made a bowl game since 1960 and their 55 bowl-less years make UK’s current 5 season bowl drought feel like mere minutes in comparison. Despite signs of life late in the 2015 season, 2016 looks to be another rough year for NMSU.
Prediction: Drew Barker, Boom Williams and company should feast on the sieve-like Aggie defense. BBP expects an offensive explosion from the Cats that gives the Commonwealth Stadium scoreboard circuitry a workout. Cats win in a 56-10 romp that sees Big Blue improve to 2-1 on the year.
South Carolina Gamecocks
2015 Record: 3-9, 1-7 (SEC)
Head Coach: Will Muschamp (1st season)
Biggest Strength: A Muschamp-guided front seven featuring DE Marquavius Lewis.
Biggest Question Mark: Can true freshman QB Brandon McIlwain win the starting job and perform adequately for the Gamecocks?
Vegas:
BBP Win Expectancy: 57%
Team Summary: A disastrous 2015 coupled with the exit of the Ol’ Ball Coach Steve Spurrier leaves the Gamecocks in a precarious position for 2016. In comes SEC veteran Will Muschamp as head coach to attempt to right the ship in Columbia. In order for the Gamecocks to improve, the offensive output from 2015 (22 points per game) must increase significantly. Questions abound: can true freshman dual threat QB Brandon McIlwain win the starting job and provide a spark for the offense? Is there enough talent for the Cocks to compete? The team’s top receiver from last season Pharoh Cooper bolted early for the NFL and the SC’s top defender LB Skai Moore is sidelined all year with a neck injury. Look for a ground and pound approach on offense behind RB David Williams and a disciplined, yet aggressive approach from the defense as they acclimate to Muschamp’s style.
Bottom Line: While recruiting has been on the rise since Muschamp took the reins and SC has been restocking with talent for the future (including former Cats DT commit Kobe Smith) there is likely not enough available for the Gamecocks to go bowling in 2016. Brandon McIlwain who has also signed to play baseball for SC looks like the real deal at QB but will likely need more time and more weapons before he can flourish in the Palmetto State.
Prediction: Steve Spurrier will be thrashing his visor into submission from the comfort of his living room as the impotent Cocks’ offense is held in check at Commonwealth. A steady dose of Boom Williams and JoJo Kemp (will we see him in the Wildcat formation ala 2014?) coupled with steady play from Barker will power Big Blue to their third straight win over East rival South Carolina. BBN improves to 3-1 on the year with a 24-10 victory at home.
Big Blue Preview: 2016 Opponent Breakdown
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
2015 Record: 9-5, 7-1 (C-USA)
Head Coach: Jay Hopson (1st season)
Biggest Strength: A talented backfield featuring QB Nick Mullens and RB Ito Smith.
Biggest Question Mark: How much will the departure of Head Coach Todd Monken hurt the Golden Eagles?
BBP Win Expectancy: 60%
Team Summary: Former Head Coach Todd Monken resurrected the Golden Eagles back to relevance in 2015 after several down years but bolted for the NFL following the season, becoming the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator. However, the cupboard in Hattiesburg was not left bare and USM has ample weaponry to compete for the CUSA title in 2016. A familiar, perhaps infamous name to Big Blue fans will make his debut as the Golden Eagle’s Offensive Coordinator. Shannon Dawson was hired by first year Head Coach Jay Hopson (formerly HC at Alcorn State) to run the offense despite coming off a lackluster year in Lexington as UK’s OC. Wide Receiver D.J. Thompson will provide Mullens at least one solid target and a slew of JUCO WR transfers look to figure into the receiving corps mix for Dawson’s attack. The Golden Eagles’ defense returns several solid pass rushers including DE Dylan Bradley who finished with 6.5 sacks in 2015.
Bottom Line: Jay Hopson inherits a talented two deep roster and the Golden Eagles seem poised for a solid 2016 campaign provided the program doesn’t falter in the wake of Monken’s departure. USM will provide a tougher test for Big Blue than a typical opening game opponent.
Prediction: In what will undoubtedly be a raucous atmosphere at Commonwealth Stadium for the 7:30 PM kickoff, BBP looks for the Cats to come into 2016 with a bang. The fact former maligned OC Shannon Dawson is on the opposite sideline will not be lost on any of the Cats and I expect many offensive players to see this opportunity as a personal invitation to “stick it” to their former play caller. New Wildcat OC Eddie Gran will have the offense clicking and the Defense will stymie the Golden Eagles enough for Big Blue to open the season with a 42-28 win over Brett Favre’s alma mater.
Florida Gators
2015 Record: 10-4, 7-1 (SEC)
Head Coach: Jim McElwain (2nd season)
Biggest Strength: A defense loaded with playmakers like CB Jalen Tabor.
Biggest Question Mark: Will one of the JUCO transfers step up and adequately fill the void at QB?
BBP Win Expectancy: 35%
Team Summary: Jim McElwain’s first season at the helm of the Gators was a success by any objective measure. Coming off a 7-5 campaign in 2014, McElwain stepped in leading the Gators to a 7-1 mark in the SEC in 2015 and a berth in the SEC title game. A lopsided bowl loss to Michigan aside, the Gators 2015 season was a big improvement over 2014 and could’ve been even better if not for the PED related suspension and subsequent transfer (to West Virginia) of QB Will Grier. In Grier’s absence, the Gator’s struggled at QB with Treon Harris (also departed) who failed to complete 50% of his passes in 6 of their final 7 games. In come transfer QBs Luke Del Rio (Oregon State) and Austin Appleby (Purdue) who will vie for the starting job. If Del Rio, who is the son of Raiders Head Coach Jack Del Rio can provide steady QB play the Gators can lean on their stout defense and should again be poised to contend for the SEC East crown. UF’s offense will feature star WR Antonio Calloway and a bruising JUCO RB transfer in 230 pound Mark Thompson. An athletic, rangy defense which was 8th in the nation in total defense last year is poised to pick up right where it left off. Despite losing multiple players to the NFL the Gators have plenty returning to pick up the slack, including a projected top 10 pick at CB in Jalen Tabor.
Bottom Line: If Luke Del Rio emerges as an adequate QB and the Gators’ defense continues its stingy ways UF should again compete for the SEC East crown. Also keep an eye on JUCO transfer kicker Eddy Pineiro who will look to improve on the Gators dreadful 7-17 conversion rate on field goals from 2015. BBP thinks Pineiro’s powerful leg will be needed for at least one late game bomb if the Gators hope to get back to Atlanta.
Prediction: The Cats have not beaten the Gators since 1987 and BBP does not see that changing this year. 2014 and 2015 saw the Cats poised to end the decades long losing streak but a win did not materialize in either game for Big Blue. Members of Big Blue Nation undoubtedly cringe at the thought of the play clock fiasco from late in the 2014 game and think of what might’ve been. This year BBP sees the Gators stingy defense standing tough at home and limiting the Cats en route to a close victory. However, the shaky QB situation and the promise of a powerful offense for UK make this contest far from a foregone conclusion despite it being held at The Swamp. BBP says Gators 24, Cats 17, but keep an eye on this game as a potential upset chance for Stoops and company.
New Mexico State Aggies
2015 Record: 3-9, 3-5 (Sun Belt)
Head Coach: Doug Martin (4th season)
Biggest Strength: RB Larry Rose III
Biggest Question Mark: Can the Aggies horrific defense, which allowed over 500 yards per game improve enough to make NMSU respectable?
BBP Win Expectancy: 90%
Team Summary: Former UK Head Coach and Air Raid pioneer Hal Mumme roamed the sidelines in Las Cruces from 2005 to 2008 compiling a dreadful 11-38 record as the Aggies’ Head Coach; and not much has improved for NMSU since. The Aggies have not won more than 4 games since 2004 and worse yet are being booted from the Sun Belt following the 2017 season. Essentially the Aggies must use this period as an audition in hopes another league invites them to join. RB Larry Rose III ran for over 1100 yards as a freshman last season and should be the Aggies best offensive weapon. A host of JUCO defensive lineman hope to shore up a porous defense that was among the worst in the FBS las year.
Bottom Line: The Aggies have not made a bowl game since 1960 and their 55 bowl-less years make UK’s current 5 season bowl drought feel like mere minutes in comparison. Despite signs of life late in the 2015 season, 2016 looks to be another rough year for NMSU.
Prediction: Drew Barker, Boom Williams and company should feast on the sieve-like Aggie defense. BBP expects an offensive explosion from the Cats that gives the Commonwealth Stadium scoreboard circuitry a workout. Cats win in a 56-10 romp that sees Big Blue improve to 2-1 on the year.
South Carolina Gamecocks
2015 Record: 3-9, 1-7 (SEC)
Head Coach: Will Muschamp (1st season)
Biggest Strength: A Muschamp-guided front seven featuring DE Marquavius Lewis.
Biggest Question Mark: Can true freshman QB Brandon McIlwain win the starting job and perform adequately for the Gamecocks?
Vegas:
BBP Win Expectancy: 57%
Team Summary: A disastrous 2015 coupled with the exit of the Ol’ Ball Coach Steve Spurrier leaves the Gamecocks in a precarious position for 2016. In comes SEC veteran Will Muschamp as head coach to attempt to right the ship in Columbia. In order for the Gamecocks to improve, the offensive output from 2015 (22 points per game) must increase significantly. Questions abound: can true freshman dual threat QB Brandon McIlwain win the starting job and provide a spark for the offense? Is there enough talent for the Cocks to compete? The team’s top receiver from last season Pharoh Cooper bolted early for the NFL and the SC’s top defender LB Skai Moore is sidelined all year with a neck injury. Look for a ground and pound approach on offense behind RB David Williams and a disciplined, yet aggressive approach from the defense as they acclimate to Muschamp’s style.
Bottom Line: While recruiting has been on the rise since Muschamp took the reins and SC has been restocking with talent for the future (including former Cats DT commit Kobe Smith) there is likely not enough available for the Gamecocks to go bowling in 2016. Brandon McIlwain who has also signed to play baseball for SC looks like the real deal at QB but will likely need more time and more weapons before he can flourish in the Palmetto State.
Prediction: Steve Spurrier will be thrashing his visor into submission from the comfort of his living room as the impotent Cocks’ offense is held in check at Commonwealth. A steady dose of Boom Williams and JoJo Kemp (will we see him in the Wildcat formation ala 2014?) coupled with steady play from Barker will power Big Blue to their third straight win over East rival South Carolina. BBN improves to 3-1 on the year with a 24-10 victory at home.
