If Georgia beats LSU, they will be in signed sealed delivered.
I’m ranking by who is in the best position based on resume and schedule. Not who is the top 4 now, because so much will change in 2 weeks.
This isn’t my top 10 teams, it’s top 10 in likelihood of the playoff.
1. Clemson. They finish with a South Carolina team and whatever garbage team the Coastal sends to the title game. They’re in and it’s a lock.
2. LSU is in a good position at the moment. Only have Arkansas and A&M left at home. Then play a tough UGA. Their Texas in Austin looks less impressive as time goes on. But if their only loss would be to a UGA team that’s in the top 4, they’ll probably be in with 1 loss.
3. Ohio State probably is in a stronger position to get in with 1 loss, but they do have a brutal way to close out the season. They’ll play Penn State, then at Michigan, then a a possible Big 10 title game against Minnesota or Wisconsin. They win the next 3, they should pass LSU and be #1. And they’re better than the ones below them because they can afford a loss and still be in good shape.
Those 3 are probably the 3 only sure fire things, then the next 3 get tough. These 3 kind of control their own destiny.
4. Oregon. I think they’re in a better position than Georgia because all they will have to beat Utah. Beating Utah won’t be easy, but you’d rather face Utah than LSU, which LSU will be favored against UGA and Oregon will be favored against Utah.
5. Georgia is in a tougher spot solely because they have to face LSU where they won’t be favored. But if the win, they’re in the playoff with their strength of schedule and quality of wins.
6. Oklahoma isn’t the most impressive team, but they’re still in the hunt. The beat Baylor again and they’re in good shape to sneak in as a 1 loss conference champion.
I think those 3 are more than likely the 3 fighting for the last spot.
These next 4 need some serious help, but it’s not crazy to like where they stand.
7. Alabama’s current ranking at 5 gives them good breathing room. They play a beatable ranked Auburn, and Auburn who beat Oregon. They have the best loss of the 1 loss teams, but their overall schedule isn’t overly impressive. Tua’s injury moves their argument for the eye test to the back burner and will hurt their case.
8. Utah. They just have to beat Oregon in the PAC 12 title game. Won’t be easy, but won’t be as difficult as some teams. Being in the PAC 12 will make teams hesitate to look at them, and be real if it comes down to a 1 loss Bama, Oklahoma, or Georgia versus Utah for the last spot, the committee ain’t picking he Utes.
9. Penn State. If Penn State wins out, they’ll jump everyone on the list and get in the playoff. Problem is the difficulty of who they will have to play and the fact they already have 1 loss. They’ll have to beat Ohio State and then turn around in 2 weeks and have to beat Wisconsin/Minnesota. But with wins over Iowa and Michigan already, they have a great resume.
10. Minnesota. If they win out, they’re going to have a strong case as well. They do have an issue with strength of schedule at the moment and 1 loss puts their backs against the wall. They’ll have to beat Wisconsin one week and then have to beat Ohio State or Penn State the next week. They have a chance, but it’ll be tough. And they have a lot of teams in front of them too.
