College softball RPI takes another curious turn.

[Plainosooner_rivals54053]

Really bad news.

OU won three straight on the road last weekend in Lubbock. TTech is number 118. LSU won two of three at home against number 31 Missouri. But LSU passed OU in the RPI rankings. The Sooners were 12 but fell to 13. LSU was 13 and moved up to 12. RPI is the number one barometer by which the committee uses to make its seedings for the post season tournament. Being in the top eight is crucial. We just moved further away from that.

A bit mystifying.

How Baylor is still ahead of OU is even harder to understand.


1 Florida Southeastern 46-4-0 12-2-0 13-0-0 21-2-0 0-0-0
2 Washington Pac-12 37-10-0 12-4-0 13-3-0 12-3-0 0-0-0
3 Arizona Pac-12 47-5-0 12-2-0 9-1-0 26-2-0 0-0-0
4 Auburn Southeastern 43-8-0 8-3-0 7-1-0 28-4-0 0-0-0
5 UCLA Pac-12 37-12-0 10-3-0 13-4-0 14-5-0 0-0-0
6 Florida St. Atlantic Coast 47-3-1 18-2-0 5-1-1 24-0-0 0-0-0
7 Oregon Pac-12 41-6-0 8-4-0 15-0-0 18-2-0 0-0-0
8 Texas A&M Southeastern 41-7-0 9-3-0 5-0-0 27-4-0 0-0-0
9 Tennessee Southeastern 42-8-0 8-3-0 11-2-0 23-3-0 0-0-0
10 Baylor Big 12 39-10-0 9-8-0 7-1-0 23-1-0 0-0-0
11 Minnesota Big Ten 48-3-0 17-3-0 15-0-0 16-0-0 0-0-0
12 LSU Southeastern 37-15-0 5-7-0 5-3-0 27-5-0 0-0-0
13 Oklahoma Big 12 44-8-0 14-0-0 11-7-0 19-1-0 0-0-0
14 Kentucky Southeastern 34-14-0 14-5-0 9-3-0 11-6-0 0-0-0
15 James Madison Colonial 44-6-0 16-2-0 18-2-0 10-2-0 0-0-0
16 Alabama Southeastern 39-12-0 9-8-0 4-0-0 26-4-0 0-0-0
17 Utah Pac-12 30-9-0 10-2-0 16-4-0 4-3-0 0-0-0
18 BYU West Coast 36-10-0 9-4-0 14-6-0 13-0-0 0-0-0
19 Louisiana Sun Belt 39-6-0 9-1-0 0-0-0 30-5-0 0-0-0
20 Ole Miss Southeastern 33-17-0 4-9-0 10-2-0 19-6-0 0-0-0
21 Arizona St. Pac-12 28-16-0 5-8-0 5-4-0 18-4-0 0-0-0
22 Illinois Big Ten 35-12-0 11-4-0 13-5-0 11-3-0 0-0-0
23 Michigan Big Ten 37-10-1 10-5-0 11-5-1 16-0-0 0-0-0
24 South Carolina Southeastern 30-21-0 6-9-0 4-4-0 20-8-0 0-0-0
25 California Pac-12 27-19-0 3-9-0 14-3-0 10-7-0 0-0-0
26 Marshall Conference USA 38-7-0 12-6-0 13-1-0 13-0-0 0-0-0
27 Georgia Southeastern 31-20-0 1-9-0 6-3-0 24-8-0 0-0-0
28 Tulsa AAC 36-13-0 14-5-0 12-6-0 10-2-0 0-0-0
29 Arkansas Southeastern 30-19-0 9-13-0 9-0-0 12-6-0 0-0-0
30 Texas St. Sun Belt 38-11-0 12-4-0 9-2-0 17-5-0 0-0-0
31 Missouri Southeastern 28-23-0 5-8-0 10-6-0 13-9-0 0-0-0
32 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 36-18-0 7-9-0 6-3-0 23-6-0 0-0-0
33 Mississippi St. Southeastern 34-18-0 7-11-0 5-1-0 22-6-0 0-0-0
34 Texas Big 12 28-20-0 10-9-0 4-2-0 14-9-0 0-0-0
35 Wisconsin Big Ten 29-13-0 11-3-0 15-2-0 3-8-0 0-0-0
36 Oklahoma St. Big 12 33-19-0 4-9-0 11-6-0 18-4-0 0-0-0
37 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 29-19-0 8-8-0 10-6-0 11-5-0 0-0-0
38 Jacksonville St. OVC 36-10-0 11-4-0 12-2-0 13-4-0 0-0-0
39 Lipscomb ASUN 34-16-0 10-4-0 7-7-0 17-5-0 0-0-0
40 Fla. Atlantic Conference USA 33-18-0 6-7-0 0-3-0 27-8-0 0-0-0

 

[MiccoMacey]

Care to help a brother out and decode what all those other numbers are after the season records?

 

[bullmarket]

Care to help a brother out and decode what all those other numbers are after the season records?

The RPI rankings are fraudulent

An example Two weeks ago we beat Baylor in 2 of the3 games including stomping them 6-0..

So what did the RPI do. Their rankings right after OU played Baylor was to raise Baylor's ranking to #9 three places ahead of OU.

Here is the current college softball Coaches poll for you to compare with the RPI
OU is ranked #6 in theCoaches poll and Baylor is ranked #18
LINK...
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/softball/d1/usa-todaynfca-coaches

The fraud RPI has Baylor 3 places ahead of OU

 

[BillyRay_rivals31072]

How Baylor is still ahead of OU is even harder to understand.

Ya sometimes rankings/polls do weird things. Baylor being ahead of OU at this point really does make zero sense.

But according to one member on this board, it's because the RPI was designed specifically to be biased towards OU, and really the sole purpose of relying on the RPI is to barricade the OU softball program from any and all success.

 

[iasooner1]

Make the whole thing a joke and pass out participation awards/direct the sport towards inclusiveness

Seriously !

 

[sybarite43]

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/SB Team Sheets thru 4_30_2017.pdf

Supposedly, this helps clarify it. But, I notice that OU has not lost to any teams in the last column, and several highly-rated teams have.

On one board, it was explained that they weigh a road win as 1.4, a neutral site win as 1.0, and a home win as almost meaningless. A road loss is only 0.6 of a home loss. Thus, as I understand, Baylor got more out of taking one of three on the road from OU than we got by winning two of three. We would have received almost nothing from winning three, and Baylor wouldn't have lost much. Yet, winning three at Tech seemed to be meaningless.

I think that when they devised the formula for the rpi, they made adjustments that provided for a tougher schedule. But they apparently didn't do anything to cite someone for a really bad home loss.

Florida lost to Maryland at Florida, and it was Maryland's first win after 8 losses. Houston's first loss was in College Station against Houston. As near as I can tell, we didn't get road win points against Houston because it was a "neutral site" due to its being a tournament. Likewise, we didn't get road win points against UCLA because it was a neutral site, being part of a tournament. Thus, UCLA didn't get home loss negations against OU because it was at a neutral site in LA.

This seems to be a problem. All of these pre-season tournaments are hosted by SEC or Pac Twelve teams, and they don't get saddled with home losses due to their being in tournaments. If you beat Florida at Florida or LSU at LSU, it is a neutral site loss rather than a home loss.

The net result of all of this seems to be to favor the teams that have a lot of tournaments in their neighborhoods. If you have some free time, take a look at the schedules of these teams and try to explain how they got to be highly-rated given who and where they played in the first ten or twelve games:

Florida
http://www.secsports.com/schedule/softball/florida-gators
Texas A&M
http://www.12thman.com/schedule.aspx?path=softball
Oregon
http://www.goducks.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=333
Florida State
http://www.seminoles.com
/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=157119&SPSID=917059&
DB_OEM_ID=32900
Tennessee
http://www.utsports.com/sports/w-softbl/sched/
LSU
http://www.lsusports.net/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=2174&SPSID=27871

Is there any way that you could have ranked these teams in the top ten based on their schedule and results at that time? But, they ended up being those tanked teams that you had to beat.

 

[bullmarket]

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/SB Team Sheets thru 4_30_2017.pdf

Supposedly, this helps clarify it. But, I notice that OU has not lost to any teams in the last column, and several highly-rated teams have.

On one board, it was explained that they weigh a road win as 1.4, a neutral site win as 1.0, and a home win as almost meaningless. A road loss is only 0.6 of a home loss. Thus, as I understand, Baylor got more out of taking one of three on the road from OU than we got by winning two of three. We would have received almost nothing from winning three, and Baylor wouldn't have lost much. Yet, winning three at Tech seemed to be meaningless.

I think that when they devised the formula for the rpi, they made adjustments that provided for a tougher schedule. But they apparently didn't do anything to cite someone for a really bad home loss.

Florida lost to Maryland at Florida, and it was Maryland's first win after 8 losses. Houston's first loss was in College Station against Houston. As near as I can tell, we didn't get road win points against Houston because it was a "neutral site" due to its being a tournament. Likewise, we didn't get road win points against UCLA because it was a neutral site, being part of a tournament. Thus, UCLA didn't get home loss negations against OU because it was at a neutral site in LA.

This seems to be a problem. All of these pre-season tournaments are hosted by SEC or Pac Twelve teams, and they don't get saddled with home losses due to their being in tournaments. If you beat Florida at Florida or LSU at LSU, it is a neutral site loss rather than a home loss.

The net result of all of this seems to be to favor the teams that have a lot of tournaments in their neighborhoods. If you have some free time, take a look at the schedules of these teams and try to explain how they got to be highly-rated given who and where they played in the first ten or twelve games:

Florida
http://www.secsports.com/schedule/softball/florida-gators
Texas A&M
http://www.12thman.com/schedule.aspx?path=softball
Oregon
http://www.goducks.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=333
Florida State
http://www.seminoles.com
/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=157119&SPSID=917059&
DB_OEM_ID=32900
Tennessee
http://www.utsports.com/sports/w-softbl/sched/
LSU
http://www.lsusports.net/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=2174&SPSID=27871

Is there any way that you could have ranked these teams in the top ten based on their schedule and results at that time? But, they ended up being those tanked teams that you had to beat.

THE RPI IS SO FLAWED & A FRADULENT BIASED SCAM

HOW COULD OU IN THE MOST RESPECTED POLL THE COACHES POLL BE 12 PLACES IN FRONT OF BAYLOR (OU #6 & BAYLOR #18) WHILE IN THE FRAUDULENT FLAWED RPI BAYLOR IS 3 PLACES AHEAD OF OU??????????????????????????

 

[bullmarket]

THE RPI IS SO FLAWED & A FRADULENT BIASED SCAM

HOW COULD OU IN THE MOST RESPECTED POLL THE COACHES POLL BE 12 PLACES IN FRONT OF BAYLOR (OU #6 & BAYLOR #18) WHILE IN THE FRAUDULENT FLAWED RPI BAYLOR IS 3 PLACES AHEAD OF OU??????????????????????????

And Sybarite LSU passed OU in the RPI rankings today DESPITE LOSING TO #31 MISSOURI last Saturday WITH THE GAME AT LSU. .

Rationalize this Sybarite.

 

[BillyRay_rivals31072]

THE RPI IS SO FLAWED & A FRADULENT BIASED SCAM

HOW COULD OU IN THE MOST RESPECTED POLL THE COACHES POLL BE 12 PLACES IN FRONT OF BAYLOR (OU #6 & BAYLOR #18) WHILE IN THE FRAUDULENT FLAWED RPI BAYLOR IS 3 PLACES AHEAD OF OU??????????????????????????

Did you spill glue under your caps lock button or something? Or did you forget to take your ADHD medication?

 

[JConXtsy_rivals]

I don't understand why the RPI would be attacked as fraudulent like it makes emotional decisions. It's a mathematical formula. It's not mystifying.

RPI = 0.25*Winning% + 0.5*Opponents' Winning% + 0.25*Opponents' Opponents' Winning%

So Oklahoma went from 41-8 to 44-8 over the weekend. That's an increase of Winning% 0.0095 (0.95%).
LSU went from 35-14 to 37-15 over the weekend. That's a decrease of Winning% 0.0028 (-0.28%).
Oklahoma's advantage here is 0.0095+0.0028 = 0.0123 (1.23%)

Texas Tech has a Winning% of 0.3696 (36.96%).
Missouri has a Winning% of 0.5490 (54.90%).

Every team has played approximately 50 games this year, so 3/50 games to scale that change = 0.06.

Let's assume both LSU and Oklahoma had played against opponents right down the middle so that their previous Opponents' Winning% was 0.5.

Oklahoma's change would be (0.3696-0.5)*0.06 = -.0078
LSU's change would be (0.5490-0.5)*0.06 = +.0029
LSU's advantage here is 0.0078+0.0029 = 0.0107 (1.07%)

So Oklahoma's Winning% increased more against LSU's than LSU's Opponents' Winning% against OUs; 1.23% vs 1.07%.

However, the values are weighted with Opponents' Winning% factoring 2X as much as Winning%.

So OU's Winning% increase over LSU is now only 0.62%.
LSU's Opponents' Winning% over Oklahoma stays at 1.07%.
1.07 > 0.62, so LSU gains over Oklahoma.

This doesn't even factor in Opponents' Opponents' % which will favor LSU even more given that Missouri's is way better than Tech's given that they are 31 in the RPI vs 117 in the RPI.

 

[JConXtsy_rivals]

Looking at remaining schedules:

Oklahoma (13) vs OkSt (36)
LSU (12) vs South Carolina (24)
Minnesota (11) vs Penn St (138)
Baylor (10) vs Texas (34)
Tennessee (09) vs aTm (08)
aTm(08) vs Tennessee (09)

Since RPI is so heavily weighted towards Opponents' Winning%, it doesn't matter if OU sweeps OkSt and the teams ahead of us all get swept (impossible in the aTm/Tennessee game). The only team we can jump in RPI is Minnesota.
The best we can finish in RPI headed into the BigXII Tournament is 12.

 

[sybarite43]

It's not that simple. Maybe, it should be. But, it isn't. I think softball has added the weighted versions of home vs road wins. A home win is 0.6 of a win. A road win is 1.4. A neutral site win is 1.0. Similarly, a home loss is -1.4.

But, this also depends on what you call a road win. Let's look at that LSU schedule. It begins with 11 straight home games, one of which they lost (to Penn State, not exactly a power). So, they should have had a whole bunch of games that were rated no better than +0.6 win as well as one that was a -1.4. Given that these were not against teams likely to have a winning record in a tiddly-winks tournament, much less softball, how exactly did they get a rather high ranking at that time?

Then, we have the problem of whether it is a home win or a neutral site win. Some teams seem to have the advantage of playing tournaments on their home field and having it count as a neutral site because it is a "tournament."

The reason that the polls are so different from the rpi this year is that there just isn't a lot of sense to some of the rpi rankings. Some rather highly-ranked teams probably don't belong in the top fifty.

 

[JConXtsy_rivals]

It's not that simple. Maybe, it should be. But, it isn't. I think softball has added the weighted versions of home vs road wins. A home win is 0.6 of a win. A road win is 1.4. A neutral site win is 1.0. Similarly, a home loss is -1.4.

But, this also depends on what you call a road win. Let's look at that LSU schedule. It begins with 11 straight home games, one of which they lost (to Penn State, not exactly a power). So, they should have had a whole bunch of games that were rated no better than +0.6 win as well as one that was a -1.4. Given that these were not against teams likely to have a winning record in a tiddly-winks tournament, much less softball, how exactly did they get a rather high ranking at that time?

Then, we have the problem of whether it is a home win or a neutral site win. Some teams seem to have the advantage of playing tournaments on their home field and having it count as a neutral site because it is a "tournament."

The reason that the polls are so different from the rpi this year is that there just isn't a lot of sense to some of the rpi rankings. Some rather highly-ranked teams probably don't belong in the top fifty.

I think it's 1.3 vs 0.7, as in baseball.

 

[JConXtsy_rivals]

The reason that the polls are so different from the rpi this year is that there just isn't a lot of sense to some of the rpi rankings. Some rather highly-ranked teams probably don't belong in the top fifty.

It's kind of a nepotistic ranking.
At the beginning of the season, your ranking is going to heavily favor your Winning %, not SOS. Therefore, your whole conference needs to play cupcakes at the beginning and get as many teams from your conference into the top RPI rankings.
Once you accomplish that, then when you enter conference play, everyone in your conference is going to go around and continually boost each other in the SOS department. As the year dwindles down, now it's all about who you're playing and not how you're winning (so much).

 

[JConXtsy_rivals]

The SEC has all 13 teams in the Top 33.
PAC-12 has 7 teams in the Top 25 then Oregon St 49 and Stanford 87.
The Big XII has only 2 teams in the Top 25. Texas(34), OkSt(36), Kansas(113), Tech(118), Iowa St(153).

And those are the top 3 conferences really. Our SOS is always going to be hammered by the PAC and SEC with that distribution.

 

[sybarite43]

Florida: first 16 games in Florida
Auburn: 5 in Puerto Vaerta, next 18 at home
Texas A&M: ten at home, 5 in Calif, 8 at home
Tennessee: ten at h0me, 5 in vegas, 6 at home
LSU: ten at home,5 in Cal, one at SO Miss, 6 at home
Bama: 5 in Conway, SC, 1 at home, 3 in Lafayette-La, 19 at home.
KY: 5 in Fla, 5 in Cal, 5 in FLa, 3 in Ill, 5 in KY---solid, but lost a lot.

There is the SEC power