My thought process:
-If Gaines returns for a 5th year under scholarship, we have filled all 13 scholarship slots for 2021: Gaines, Greer, Audige, Kopp, Nance, Buie, Beran, Young, Berry, Nicholson, Roper, Simmons, Barnhizer.
-Therefore, to add another scholarship player, we must open up an additional scholarship by the time that player enrolls.
-This allows for a few possibilities: Gaines won't play his 5th year here (or will play it as a walk-on), one of the other scholarship players will leave the team before 2021, or one of the current verbal commits will decommit. (I'm excluding extreme possibilities like Collins reneging on a verbal commitment.)
-Therefore, since we are still actively recruiting at least a couple of guys for 2021, it is reasonable to assume that Collins expects to have an open scholarship when 2021 rolls around. Which suggests that either Collins knows someone is planning to transfer or that he must have informed Gaines that, if they sign another guy and nobody leaves, Gaines won't be offered a 5th year.
If there is a flaw in this reasoning, or if I'm missing another way to open a scholarship, please explain. Happy to admit I've got it wrong, as I'm no recruiting expert. However, if the only way to get an answer is to be on the premium board, I'll have to proceed in ignorance.