I went thru the box scores with the players substitutions in an attempt to figure out what Collins was doing with his available players. I calculated points allowed and scored by any significant group of 5 guys, using the last 13 games of the season as my dataset.
We all know that Collins viewed Nance, Beran, Buie, Audige and Kopp as "the starters," with an occasional nod to Gaines or Young.
In some cases I eliminated the "free throw shooting contest" aspect of a few games, which didn't really merit consideration in "+/-" calculations.
My premise is that the coach is using his players effectively if the combinations that play the most are the combinations that outscore the opposition. By using "seconds played" as the increment of time, I could project a typical final score if that group of 5 played the entire game. It is a useful way to compare performance.
Some things that most people suspected have been proven to be true.
"The starters" were a disaster.
Nance ,Beran, Buie, Kopp and Audige produced 127 points and allowed 179 in 5575 seconds of play.
This projects to an average full game result of a 77-55 blowout loss. This lineup played almost twice as many minutes as any specific group of 5 players. That is a big problem. One of the worst performing line-ups got the most minutes, by a wide margin.
Playing Young and Nance together was our best chance. It wasn't even close. Regardless of the other 3 players, if Young and Nance were on the court together, we scored 215 points and allowed 199 in 8196 seconds of play. This projects to a 63-58 win in a typical game.
If you look at the +/- for each player when paired with every other player (for example Buie with Audige, Buie with Beran, Buie with Kopp, etc) it is very clear that Young and Ty Berry were the best players to be paired with. In Pete Nance's case, being paired with Young or Berry and 3 random guys would have led to a typical game being a 4.7 point win. Nance/Kopp was a 3 point loss. Nance/Beran was a 17 point loss. On the flip side of this were Robbie Beran and Ryan Greer. Every player's worst result was with one of those two.
The one notable exception to this was Anthony Gaines. For him, Ryan Young and Ty Berry were not a good pairing. He played his best with Nance, Kopp and Buie. When paired with them, his games projected to a 4 - 5 point loss. With Young or Berry, his results were about a 10 point loss.
For the individual players, the projected typical game results were as follows...
Nance(-6.3), Kopp (-4.7), Beran (-12.1), Buie (-6.1), Audige (-7.6), Greer (-17), Young (-2.6), Gaines(-8.0), Berry(-1.3). Please note, this is based on the results of how Collins used the players.
So armed with this information, we know that Ty Berry and Ryan Young deserved more minutes and Robbie Beran deserved fewer minutes, but there was much more to be discovered...
It turns out that Collins rarely used Young in place of Nance with the other 4 starters. The group of Young, Kopp, Beran, Buie and Audige was out there for 878 seconds (total) in the last 13 games. During that 14:38, they outscored the opponent 39-19, which projects to a 107-52 domination. As an NU fan, this is a bit frustrating.
What struck me was the fact that neither Gaines nor Beran was "useless." It was just that certain combinations were clearly successful and others were clearly detrimental.
If Gaines was on the court with Young and Nance was on the bench, we were likely to fall behind.
However, if Gaines and Nance were out there together, we tended to do fairly well.
Nance, Kopp, Buie, Gaines and Audige played 1457 seconds as a unit and projected to a 85-61 victory.
Similarly, even Beran was successful when paired with Young, in a lineup that made sense. If it was Nance and Beran. we were hurting ourselves. Collins played Nance and Beran together A LOT.
The single most effective group of 5 was Nance, Young, Kopp, Audige and Berry, rolling up a 15-0 victory in a grand total of 375 seconds, projecting to a 96-0 slaughter of a typical Big Ten opponent.
As effective as Young was relative to his teammates, there were some glaringly bad combinations...
Young, Kopp, Buie, Audige and Gaines played 959 seconds together, losing 30-11, or 75-28 for a full game.
Young, Kopp, Buie, Berry and Gaines played 947 seconds together, losing 32-17 or 81-43 for a full game.
It used to drive me nuts watching Young with Kopp and 3 guards. I didn't realize it was mainly because Gaines and Young didn't click. I think the coach is supposed to notice.
Obviously, sample size matters, but these results are meaningful, frustrating and hard to ignore. I think the talent was there for far better outcomes this year. Feel free to comment...
We all know that Collins viewed Nance, Beran, Buie, Audige and Kopp as "the starters," with an occasional nod to Gaines or Young.
In some cases I eliminated the "free throw shooting contest" aspect of a few games, which didn't really merit consideration in "+/-" calculations.
My premise is that the coach is using his players effectively if the combinations that play the most are the combinations that outscore the opposition. By using "seconds played" as the increment of time, I could project a typical final score if that group of 5 played the entire game. It is a useful way to compare performance.
Some things that most people suspected have been proven to be true.
"The starters" were a disaster.
Nance ,Beran, Buie, Kopp and Audige produced 127 points and allowed 179 in 5575 seconds of play.
This projects to an average full game result of a 77-55 blowout loss. This lineup played almost twice as many minutes as any specific group of 5 players. That is a big problem. One of the worst performing line-ups got the most minutes, by a wide margin.
Playing Young and Nance together was our best chance. It wasn't even close. Regardless of the other 3 players, if Young and Nance were on the court together, we scored 215 points and allowed 199 in 8196 seconds of play. This projects to a 63-58 win in a typical game.
If you look at the +/- for each player when paired with every other player (for example Buie with Audige, Buie with Beran, Buie with Kopp, etc) it is very clear that Young and Ty Berry were the best players to be paired with. In Pete Nance's case, being paired with Young or Berry and 3 random guys would have led to a typical game being a 4.7 point win. Nance/Kopp was a 3 point loss. Nance/Beran was a 17 point loss. On the flip side of this were Robbie Beran and Ryan Greer. Every player's worst result was with one of those two.
The one notable exception to this was Anthony Gaines. For him, Ryan Young and Ty Berry were not a good pairing. He played his best with Nance, Kopp and Buie. When paired with them, his games projected to a 4 - 5 point loss. With Young or Berry, his results were about a 10 point loss.
For the individual players, the projected typical game results were as follows...
Nance(-6.3), Kopp (-4.7), Beran (-12.1), Buie (-6.1), Audige (-7.6), Greer (-17), Young (-2.6), Gaines(-8.0), Berry(-1.3). Please note, this is based on the results of how Collins used the players.
So armed with this information, we know that Ty Berry and Ryan Young deserved more minutes and Robbie Beran deserved fewer minutes, but there was much more to be discovered...
It turns out that Collins rarely used Young in place of Nance with the other 4 starters. The group of Young, Kopp, Beran, Buie and Audige was out there for 878 seconds (total) in the last 13 games. During that 14:38, they outscored the opponent 39-19, which projects to a 107-52 domination. As an NU fan, this is a bit frustrating.
What struck me was the fact that neither Gaines nor Beran was "useless." It was just that certain combinations were clearly successful and others were clearly detrimental.
If Gaines was on the court with Young and Nance was on the bench, we were likely to fall behind.
However, if Gaines and Nance were out there together, we tended to do fairly well.
Nance, Kopp, Buie, Gaines and Audige played 1457 seconds as a unit and projected to a 85-61 victory.
Similarly, even Beran was successful when paired with Young, in a lineup that made sense. If it was Nance and Beran. we were hurting ourselves. Collins played Nance and Beran together A LOT.
The single most effective group of 5 was Nance, Young, Kopp, Audige and Berry, rolling up a 15-0 victory in a grand total of 375 seconds, projecting to a 96-0 slaughter of a typical Big Ten opponent.
As effective as Young was relative to his teammates, there were some glaringly bad combinations...
Young, Kopp, Buie, Audige and Gaines played 959 seconds together, losing 30-11, or 75-28 for a full game.
Young, Kopp, Buie, Berry and Gaines played 947 seconds together, losing 32-17 or 81-43 for a full game.
It used to drive me nuts watching Young with Kopp and 3 guards. I didn't realize it was mainly because Gaines and Young didn't click. I think the coach is supposed to notice.
Obviously, sample size matters, but these results are meaningful, frustrating and hard to ignore. I think the talent was there for far better outcomes this year. Feel free to comment...