I am going to ignore the atrocious record in close games from previous years. Clean slate.
Also going to ignore the New Orleans game, cause it should not have been close and we were much better. Finally I want to ignore the Providence game, because it ended close, but it was not really that close. Sure we kind of scared them a bit too little too late.
We are 1-3 in close games. We have 16 games to go. I am going to assume in 2 of those games we are blown out. 2 we win without being a close one. That leaves 12 close games. We go 6-6 in those and we end up at 9-11. Can we do it?