Covers write up on S.Miss. Game

stacdliw

Redshirt
May 19, 2009
10
12
3
I'm posting this below because it is a little hard to find on the website. It's a Free Pick they posted. They're not saying Southern Miss will win but they're saying they'll cover. In regards to other bettors, it appears they are staying away from the game.

Pick:
Southern Mississippi
Start:
September 3, 2016 - 7:30 PM
Capper:
Dave Cokin
Offered at:
pinnacle @ 7 -110 Southern Mississippi


I'm usually a little hesitant to back new head coaches out of the gate, but I think there's enough in play here to support a play on Southern Mississippi. Jay Hopson has done well at the FCS level, and he was formerly an assistant here at Southern Miss. I also like the fact that the new OC is Shannon Dawson, who had that job at Kentucky last season. He got fired, so there's two ways to read the situation. One is that he wasn't any good, the other is that he didn't have the personnel. But one thing for sure is that you know Dawson is going to be all-in to do some damage to the program that dumped him. That's a nice intangible. USM has the best QB in CUSA in Nick Mullens, and while the offense did lose a few important pieces, I expect the Golden Eagles to still be very productive on offense. We'll see on the defense. I don't think it's necessarily down from last year, but it probably isn't any better either.

Kentucky is already having some problems.The Wildcats are already down two projected defensive starters. For a team that lost seven of its eight leading tacklers from 2015, this is a potentially big hit. I think the Wildcats could have an improved offense. Eddie Gran is the new OC and he did some great work at Cincinnati. Drew Barker was unimpressive in two starts last season, but he was a pretty highly recruited QB and I suspect he'll do a better job this season. The strength of the Kentucky team will be its running game, especially with what is a very experienced OL to open holes.

This game looks like a tossup to me. I have these two teams very close in all three sets of power ratings I utilize. It's an important game for both teams. Southern Miss is an upwardly mobile program that would love to knock off an SEC opponent on the road. Kentucky hasn't been to even a minor bowl since 2010, and if Mark Stoops wants to stay off the hot seat, he needs an invite this season. That makes this almost a must win Week One game for the Wildcats. But I don't see them being a full TD better than the Golden Eagles, and with the early attrition on defense, I see the visitors having a legit shot here. I'll take the touchdown with Southern Mississippi.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BARRYBLUE1

dorkmeister

Junior
Oct 25, 2006
6,668
396
0
I don't think S Miss has any answer for our O. We have one of the top WR group in the nation and now have a QB who can deliver. Add in we are stacked at RB, I don't see them stopping our O. Look for an easy 45+ points on O and keep them under 24. The only reason I think they will get 24 is we have kinks to work out on D as well as they will get the ball a lot since we will score a lot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cat888 and tntuk

Anon1660081258

All-American
Jun 20, 2013
7,250
6,139
0
I don't think S Miss has any answer for our O. We have one of the top WR group in the nation and now have a QB who can deliver. Add in we are stacked at RB, I don't see them stopping our O. Look for an easy 45+ points on O and keep them under 24. The only reason I think they will get 24 is we have kinks to work out on D as well as they will get the ball a lot since we will score a lot.

I see it about the same way.
 

Nuke99m.

All-American
Aug 30, 2002
8,615
7,675
113
Smart bettor wouldn't touch this game. Too many unknowns. There will be other games to make money on that first week.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gg4uk

Deeeefense

Heisman
Staff member
Aug 22, 2001
44,045
50,929
113
Dave Conkin's historical record is about 50% ATS - you can do just as well flipping a coin.
 
  • Like
Reactions: stacdliw

Monroe Claxton

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2015
3,021
4,685
0
Gran and Hanshaw destroyed teams like USM while at Cincinnati with QB's with a lot less talent that Drew has
 
  • Like
Reactions: cat888

cardkilla_rivals379685

All-Conference
May 10, 2002
2,076
1,695
0
Sounds like none of this is based on anything since camp started other than the 2 guys down, which is not a problem when it happens early in camp and for the 1st game. I don't believe we'll miss them in this game at least.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cat888

gg4uk

Sophomore
Oct 29, 2001
7,693
171
32
I think it's funny that Shannon D was the coach in those two games Barker didn't impress in.

Dave Cokin use to be on a cable show that air's early Saturday mornings on cable. I can't remember all of the guys that were on the show. But, it was in the mid-90's. I think it was called Proline. He always wore a goofy little hat. He was one of my favorites. The show was for gambling and betting on the lines.
Jim Fiest
Wayne Allen Root
Spritzer
Cokin
 

2330859

All-American
Nov 28, 2002
12,145
9,804
0
50% is about right .......remember he is not selecting the winner; he is only suggesting in this case that USM will not lose by more than 6 points. UK is the favorite, and I believe more talented at all of the offensive skill positions other than QB. That is what makes USM worthy of playing within 7 points; an experienced and talented QB against a UK defense that has had to replace a lot of experience from 2015.
 

Deeeefense

Heisman
Staff member
Aug 22, 2001
44,045
50,929
113
50% is about right .......remember he is not selecting the winner; he is only suggesting in this case that USM will not lose by more than 6 points.

The line is designed to be a 50/50 proposition. Therefore an "expert" who is 50% against the spread does no better than a random number generator. The odds are the same - 50/50 - that was my point. This guy charges people money for opinions that are for all practical purposes worthless.
 

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
The line is designed to be a 50/50 proposition. Therefore an "expert" who is 50% against the spread does no better than a random number generator. The odds are the same - 50/50 - that was my point. This guy charges people money for opinions that are for all practical purposes worthless.
You got that right!

You ain't gonna make any money going 50% ATS. In fact you lose. You win 1 then lose 1 but the house takes a 10% squeeze on each bet. You first bet $110 and win $100 and put $210 in your pocket then bet $110 and lose it leaving you with $100...a $10 loss on the 2 bets. [winking]

Peace
 

jb1010

Senior
Nov 8, 2011
2,252
695
0
lol ... Dave Cokin is one of the worst handicappers. This makes me feel better about UK. Hopefully Brandon Lang is on S. Miss as well. hahaha
 
  • Like
Reactions: BluffaloSlim

dcspurlock

All-Conference
Apr 12, 2007
2,379
1,086
0
50% is about right .......remember he is not selecting the winner; he is only suggesting in this case that USM will not lose by more than 6 points. UK is the favorite, and I believe more talented at all of the offensive skill positions other than QB. That is what makes USM worthy of playing within 7 points; an experienced and talented QB against a UK defense that has had to replace a lot of experience from 2015.

A better QB would be an advantage against most teams. However I think our secondary will be good enough to offset his play. A good secondary can humble a good QB. Against an SEC level team it would be more of an advantage. I don't think it helps them much though.
 

gg4uk

Sophomore
Oct 29, 2001
7,693
171
32
If the UK pass rush is average the good secondary will have huge impact. However, if UK is not able to stop the run and/or get moderate pressure on the QB the secondary won't have any positive effect.