“There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions,” according to the NBER.
Therefore, in the U.S., there is no formal definition for what constitutes a large spike, said Nicholas Bloom, economics professor at Stanford University. And because it takes awhile for the necessary data to come out, the NBER committee often doesn’t determine that the U.S. is having a large spike until months, or sometimes even a year, after it’s already happened.
There wasn't a spike. The spike is transitory. The spike is actually good. We have always been at war with eastasia.
Just substitute 'recession' for "large spike" for the actual bs quote from last week.