Expected Points: Post NDI Edition

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
872
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The National Duals Invitational was good enough to provide us with a ton of results in a short period of time.

Even better is there were a ton of upsets leading to a ton of movement.

Isn't that a ton of fun?

Team Expected Points

The headline is that things got tighter at the top. At least on the surface they did. While much was learned about Ohio State, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and others, much still needs to be learned about Penn State. Flo does not yet have PJ Duke in their top 33 at 157 and no one knows what to make of Cole Mirasola yet. Combined that with their low expectations for Aaron Nagao and Penn State has some guaranteed (Duke) built in upside and some suspected (Mirasola, Nagao).



Cha-Cha-Changes
Time may change seeds, but....

There has been a fair amount of movement in the team race. Some of that is due to highly ranked wrestlers in the pre-season going the redshirt (or second semester only) route and some due to results.

The most upwardly mobile team has been Oklahoma State gaining nearly 31 expected points since the pre-season, a cool 56% jump.

Nebraska has had the opposite experience. But after last March are you prepared to write them off so soon?



Is It a Team Sport? Or an Individual Sport?

That debate has not been louder in recent years than it is now that the NDI has concluded. So let's look at the individual movers and shakers that are contributing the most to those team numbers.

Backing out wrestlers who were backed out of lineups below are the 15 largest improvements and the 15 largest room for improvements.

There are a lot of big names on that list, but it is amazing that Oklahoma State has the three biggest upwardly mobile wrestlers and one of the opposite.

 

Acacia

Sophomore
Oct 30, 2021
101
132
43
Great analysis. Thanks for sharing. Love to see another update by year end. :)

It is November. Not sold on Bouzakis or Feldman quite yet. And Okie State obviously got a huge bump from unranked to highly ranked freshman. Can they maintain their ranking going forward with more scouting and the grind of a long college season? And the huge freshman bump still only gets Okie State to 4th... (They will be a problem in a few years)

Marcus Blaze may join the conversation as well for Penn State.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
872
2,141
93
Great analysis. Thanks for sharing. Love to see another update by year end. :)

It is November. Not sold on Bouzakis or Feldman quite yet. And Okie State obviously got a huge bump from unranked to highly ranked freshman. Can they maintain their ranking going forward with more scouting and the grind of a long college season? And the huge freshman bump still only gets Okie State to 4th... (They will be a problem in a few years)

Marcus Blaze may join the conversation as well for Penn State.
I update the numbers weekly but do not post about them every week. The changes will probably be minimal until second semester at this point.
 

Acacia

Sophomore
Oct 30, 2021
101
132
43
Certainly Blaze and Duke will make some noise in December. Also the Okie State freshman have some tough matches in December as well.

#2 Vega gets #3 Hardy again Dec 21
#2 Robideau gets gets #1 Ty Watters Dec 14 and #6 Antrell Taylor Dec 21

With Ohio State, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State (and Iowa never goes) skipping CKLV -- I expect Iowa State to rise (or fall) in the rankings.
125 Poulin #10
133 E. Frost #6
141 Echemendia #7
149 P.Johnson #2
157 Zerban #3
165 Euton #22
174 Gaitan #11
184 Dean #10
197 Elam #2
285 Bastida #1

Iowa State also duals Iowa November 30.
 
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jack66

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May 29, 2001
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With Ohio State, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State (and Iowa never goes) skipping CKLV -- I expect Iowa State to rise (or fall) in the rankings.

Are there any quality opens left?

The Midlands and the Scuffle have been watered down for years. Now, Cliff Keen is losing its top 3 draws.