Fantasy Football - do you trade for...

[rabidcatfan]

...the 12th pick in a standard 12 team league snake draft when you know that inevitably someone will pick either Cam Newton or Aaron Rodgers (or both) in the 1st round?

My problem is this - I currently have the 5th pick in our upcoming draft and at that pick I plan to take either one of Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, or Julio Jones since I know picks 1-2 will be Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. (I've already confirmed this with the place holders) and picks 3 & 4 will likely be one of the three I mentioned before, but now I'm in a unique position. The team owner with the 12th pick may have the most to gain and by this I mean there are two team owners in our league that I KNOW will take QB's with their first pick - they always do. So, would it make more sense to give up my 5th position for the chance at getting two top-twelve WR/RB's or maybe even Gronkowski (although I believe someone will take him in the 1st as well)?

Outside of the top 1 or 2 there isn't much difference between the top 5-7 in each category in terms of production on any given Sunday, so my thinking is this: I trade down for pick 12 and I end up with, potentially, a chance to take 2 of DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, AJ Green, Devonta Freeman, Ezekiel Elliot, or even Rob Gronkowski? Do I trade the chance to draft Peterson/Gurley/Jones then have to wait until the 20th pick (where all of the top WR/RB/QB/TE will be gone) to get my 2nd round choice or do I trade down to 12, get 12 & 13 and then have to wait until 36 & 37 to draft my 3rd and 4th round picks?

I've already talked to the team owner with #12 and he's willing to trade up (suprisingly lol). I'm just not sure if it's worth it to trade when I'll be getting picks #5, #20, #29, and #44 through 4 rounds? I may very well stay with my 5th pick, but this is definitely something to think about.

 

[catsfanbgky]

Hate these drafts. Auction drafts is where it is at. You can draft ANY player you want, if you are willing to pay for him. I mean just slotting guys and picking best available has no skill to it. Auction drafts you have to spend and spend wisely, and build a team using knowledge and skill. Our league is a 12 team league $100 draft, been the same owners for 16 years. Tough *** league, better bring your A game draft night. But the $800 first place will make a guy study and be on point. Not much skill in drafting in order and no salary cap, more or less luck of the draw. Sorry I did not answer your question, but you did not say what you got in return for trading down.

 

[mashburned]

You pay money to play fantasy football? Get real.

 

[Kaizer Sosay]

I don't really have an answer for you. I just wanted to warn you that if @maverick1 enters this thread and tries to give you advice…any advice…on this topic then absolutely positively do the exact OPPOSITE of whatever he suggests.

Mav sucks at fantastical foosball. He is in fact the WOAT.

 

[catsfanbgky]

You pay money to play fantasy football? Get real.

Actually I win money to play FFL. Won the league 2 out of the last 4 years. $1600 total for winning, and then $40 for making the playoffs the other two years ($20 if you make the playoffs), plus have won high scorer of the week several times that pays $10 each time. Fun league, each owner pays $120 owner fee, that is $1440 for prize money. We have draft same date every year (night race at Bristol). It starts around 2pm, cornhole tournament, buy in for NASCAR race pool, grill, and drink. Draft starts around 6pm, ends usually around 2-3am depending on how out of hand it gets. Just 12 good friends getting together for a day, hanging out, drinking, doing guy **** all day.

 

[Elbridge]

I'm the first pick in my league's draft this year. I'm not all that thrilled about it because you can't miss on #1 and #20 better be awfully damn good too.

 

[CatsCats78]

It's all just what strategy you prefer. I love picking last in snakes, you pretty much get 2 first round caliber picks. At 12 (assuming the two idiots pick QB's in the first) you'll probably get two out of Elliott, Dez, Alshon Jeffrey, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Le'Veon Bell, Jordy, Freeman or possibly David Johnson. Sure, you have to wait a bit in the third round, but getting two first round talents is worth the wait IMO.

 

[GonzoCat90]

So you'd be trading draft positions completely? Or just for the first couple rounds?

Here's my take: this year, there's a pretty clear top tier, and then a big group of that next tier. In non-PPR, I'd say the first 8-10 guys are comparable and then the next dozen or so are pretty similar.

I'd stay at 5, know that two guys are going to take QBs in round one, that someone else will take Gronk, and that others are likely to chase a QB once the first couple guys do.

If you wait on your QB and TE, which you can do because they're so similar scoring wise, then you'll easily get one, maybe two, guys from the second tier and already have your 5th pick guy from the top tier.

 

[PhattyJ4UK_rivals309166]

Would possibly consider trading, but only for 1st 2 rounds.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Also, if you're ever unsure about a trade, Google Dodd's Trade Calculator. It isn't perfect, but it's a damn good guide.