Faulty Assumptions

OFortuna

Junior
Nov 29, 2004
390
237
0
I assumed when Mark Stoops, a defensive-minded guy, was hired, that 1) his knowledge and focus would elevate UK's defensive play significantly, and 2) that his reputation, especially at Florida State, would help him recruit difference makers on defense. Since defense is when we can really make noise, I also assumed 3) that we'd be looking forward to a more raucous stadium celebrating repeated defensive 3 and outs. Yet, as we approach season #4, it's the offense people seem to have more confidence in, and the defense that has the biggest question marks. Certainly within the league, our defensive achievements and reputation thus far remain pedestrian, and the Florida State cachet, if it was ever there, has receded. So now I'm starting to wonder if those were faulty assumptions, and if we can expect to field an above average defense any time soon....?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cats78

seccats04

Heisman
Dec 6, 2004
14,033
21,872
113
I assumed when Mark Stoops, a defensive-minded guy, was hired, that 1) his knowledge and focus would elevate UK's defensive play significantly, and 2) that his reputation, especially at Florida State, would help him recruit difference makers on defense. Since defense is when we can really make noise, I also assumed 3) that we'd be looking forward to a more raucous stadium celebrating repeated defensive 3 and outs. Yet, as we approach season #4, it's the offense people seem to have more confidence in, and the defense that has the biggest question marks. Certainly within the league, our defensive achievements and reputation thus far remain pedestrian, and the Florida State cachet, if it was ever there, has receded. So now I'm starting to wonder if those were faulty assumptions, and if we can expect to field an above average defense any time soon....?

Only if Stoops takes over the play calling. I know some people say Stoops has been running the defense but I don't believe that. How many times last year did we see Stoops on the sideline arguing with Eliot? He was not happy with something. Hopefully now that Stoops will be hands off with the offense he will have more time to focus on the defense.
 

DACats86

All-Conference
Jan 7, 2003
22,776
4,134
0
I think you will see Stoops be the de facto DC this fall. He has an OC that he trusts and is on the same page with him. He can leave that side of the ball in Gran's hands.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CATFANFOLIFE87

K_TIME

Heisman
Jan 2, 2003
18,117
25,007
113
I thought the same thing as well...but so far our defense has been improved from what Joker left...but not anything eye opening for UK standards. I personally think the 3-4 defense transition will be a mistake and can't transition to it.

And for those arguing talent level. For sure not having speed edge rushers like he had at Florida St is a problem. But Vandy has transitioned to a very nice defensive showing under their head coach with a defensive background...so it's doable.
 
Apr 6, 2010
1,092
457
0
The position group that Stoops recognition and credit for was the secondary which is our strongest asset of the team right now.

We are just waiting on the DL and LB groups to get there. One of their biggest hurdles is adjusting to a 2 gap defensive system such as a 3-4. I would assume to effectively learn and execute the system a player would need about 1-2 years to be on par. This year we have personnel that are talented, experienced and hungry. Does this mean we ""turn the corner"" this year? NO..
 

VikingsCat

All-Conference
Feb 7, 2013
3,129
2,574
0
Don't know were OP ( or others as well) have been or seen over the last few years. Defense hasn't been our problem since Stoops took over, offense has. If you want proof look at our game stats (play-by-play) and judge for yourself. Our defense has done a great job in general, even with the lack of quality at key positions. The problem for our defense has been bad field positions and lack of depth. They have started good, but haven't been able to stay competitive for 4 quarters.
 

Levibooty

All-American
Jun 29, 2005
26,547
7,667
0
There is a whole lot of truth in the belief our offense has not been helpful for our defense, still we are challenged consistently year after year to stop the run.
 

sluggercatfan

Heisman
Aug 17, 2004
35,953
29,631
0
I assumed when Mark Stoops, a defensive-minded guy, was hired, that 1) his knowledge and focus would elevate UK's defensive play significantly, and 2) that his reputation, especially at Florida State, would help him recruit difference makers on defense. Since defense is when we can really make noise, I also assumed 3) that we'd be looking forward to a more raucous stadium celebrating repeated defensive 3 and outs. Yet, as we approach season #4, it's the offense people seem to have more confidence in, and the defense that has the biggest question marks. Certainly within the league, our defensive achievements and reputation thus far remain pedestrian, and the Florida State cachet, if it was ever there, has receded. So now I'm starting to wonder if those were faulty assumptions, and if we can expect to field an above average defense any time soon....?
-
Unless you are Ala-and maybe even if you are- and you are averaging 17 ppg in conference play you better have the best defense in the country if you expect to win...I am a FIRM believer that at KENTUCKY offense needs to be your primary concern and if you aren't avedging 30++ppg you can forget being a consistent bowl team...the Otis game last year is a perfect example.
 

vhcat70

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
57,418
38,482
0
I assumed when Mark Stoops, a defensive-minded guy, was hired, that 1) his knowledge and focus would elevate UK's defensive play significantly, and 2) that his reputation, especially at Florida State, would help him recruit difference makers on defense. Since defense is when we can really make noise, I also assumed 3) that we'd be looking forward to a more raucous stadium celebrating repeated defensive 3 and outs. Yet, as we approach season #4, it's the offense people seem to have more confidence in, and the defense that has the biggest question marks. Certainly within the league, our defensive achievements and reputation thus far remain pedestrian, and the Florida State cachet, if it was ever there, has receded. So now I'm starting to wonder if those were faulty assumptions, and if we can expect to field an above average defense any time soon....?
Sorry, but I can't help that you can't see that he's made across the board improvement since Joker nor know that football programs aren't made overnight nor that Stoops wasn't an experienced HC. If you have complaints, go after Barnhart for not getting a better recruiter & experienced, quality HC.
 
  • Like
Reactions: un4getables

Brock28

All-Conference
Dec 14, 2004
3,701
4,311
0
We will be fielding the most talented secondary that we have ever had here at UK.
 

theoledog

All-Conference
Nov 21, 2008
4,306
1,444
0
In step with the "OFortuna" post.... Kind a felt the same way... Could be he's swung and missed on a few difference makers not showing up at school or on the field???? And I don't think he's had a big role in the Offense/my opinion... If he has he sure as hell needs to stay, way the hell away...
So I remain neutral on the guy as a HC... Eventually I think he is a good one but wonder if UK might just be his OJT for success elsewhere...
 

theoledog

All-Conference
Nov 21, 2008
4,306
1,444
0
We will be fielding the most talented secondary that we have ever had here at UK.
I agree 100% ...but the downside to that is... Most any QB at SEC level will look pretty damn good, if he's got all day to throw and lanes to run....
 

Cats78

Senior
Dec 28, 2005
8,695
998
0
We will be fielding the most talented secondary that we have ever had here at UK.


True, but our DL will probably be a major issue. A great secondary won't matter much if we can't pressure the QB and he has all day to find open receivers.
 

Monroe Claxton

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2015
3,021
4,685
0
Cash, Landon, and Drake have to play as freshmen. Their talents plus being from Kentucky will elevate their level of play as well as the team beyond expectation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lex cath

Brock28

All-Conference
Dec 14, 2004
3,701
4,311
0
Cash, Landon, and Drake have to play as freshmen. Their talents plus being from Kentucky will elevate their level of play as well as the team beyond expectation.
I'm not sure Drake will play, but the other two will.
 

Cats78

Senior
Dec 28, 2005
8,695
998
0
Cash, Landon, and Drake have to play as freshmen. Their talents plus being from Kentucky will elevate their level of play as well as the team beyond expectation.

Beyond Expectation? Well, I expect Landon Young to help out. The other 2 guys? Kash Daniel will probably play, but not sure he'll be a factor. Drake Jackson may red shirt. You might want to ease back on the expectations of guys "cause they're from KY". That won't automatically elevate anything. This is SEC football. If anything, we've had too many "KY guys" in the past that were highly rated turn out to be busts. Hope that isn't the case with these guys.
 
  • Like
Reactions: boowee

TBCat

Heisman
Mar 30, 2007
14,317
10,331
0
Our defense has gotten better every year. It's still not great but that's largely because you need a lot of talent to be good on defense in the SEC. We just don't have that and it will take several years of winning 7 or 8 games before we get it. The offense is another story. You can be good on offense with just a decent QB, productive RB and solid or better receivers. There is no reason we shouldn't be at that point already on offense.
 
  • Like
Reactions: un4getables
Jun 6, 2016
276
487
0
Our defense has gotten better every year. It's still not great but that's largely because you need a lot of talent to be good on defense in the SEC. We just don't have that and it will take several years of winning 7 or 8 games before we get it. The offense is another story. You can be good on offense with just a decent QB, productive RB and solid or better receivers. There is no reason we shouldn't be at that point already on offense.
You really need a good offensive line to make an offense work.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Brock28

RS73CAT

Junior
Jan 27, 2005
1,833
299
0
Kentucky has had nowhere near the talent that stoops had at Florida State. also, not taking anything away from coach, but he didn't face the SEC. Faced good teams, but not the 11/12 game gauntlet that he sees here. I understand expectations, but I truly believe he needs a couple more years. Stoops will get us there. Maybe not the SEC championship game, but 8 or 9 wins a year and bowl games, are in reach. JMO, and hope.
 

vhcat70

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
57,418
38,482
0
Cash, Landon, and Drake have to play as freshmen. Their talents plus being from Kentucky will elevate their level of play as well as the team beyond expectation.
I don't see that, but OK. Best to me, they don't need to play.
 
Jun 6, 2016
276
487
0
Kentucky has had nowhere near the talent that stoops had at Florida State. also, not taking anything away from coach, but he didn't face the SEC. Faced good teams, but not the 11/12 game gauntlet that he sees here. I understand expectations, but I truly believe he needs a couple more years. Stoops will get us there. Maybe not the SEC championship game, but 8 or 9 wins a year and bowl games, are in reach. JMO, and hope.
Florida State plays a pretty good schedule. The SEC East has not been a gauntlet since he has been at UK.
 
Apr 6, 2010
1,092
457
0
I believe with the recent coaching changes that we are getting to where we need to be as far as coaching. The next step is to recruit. We need depth on both sides of the ball. I know star rankings aren't everything but when put up against the other teams in the SEC we are number 13 out of 14 in average star ranking. We have some highly regarded starters and a huge drop off when it comes to the talent level in the second unit.

If we had depth like other teams in the SEC, players like Young and Elam would be able to redshirt and develop before being forced into playing. We don't have that luxury at Kentucky. Its going to take a few years to build depth at all positions like Coach Stoops had at Florida State.
 

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
assumed when Mark Stoops, a defensive-minded guy, was hired, that 1) his knowledge and focus would elevate UK's defensive play significantly, and 2) that his reputation, especially at Florida State, would help him recruit difference makers on defense. Since defense is when we can really make noise, I also assumed 3) that we'd be looking forward to a more raucous stadium celebrating repeated defensive 3 and outs. Yet, as we approach season #4, it's the offense people seem to have more confidence in, and the defense that has the biggest question marks. Certainly within the league, our defensive achievements and reputation thus far remain pedestrian, and the Florida State cachet, if it was ever there, has receded. So now I'm starting to wonder if those were faulty assumptions, and if we can expect to field an above average defense any time soon....?

Our defense has gotten better every year. It's still not great but that's largely because you need a lot of talent to be good on defense in the SEC. We just don't have that and it will take several years of winning 7 or 8 games before we get it. The offense is another story. You can be good on offense with just a decent QB, productive RB and solid or better receivers. There is no reason we shouldn't be at that point already on offense.
I'll tag in here because I feel the same way as TB. It is much harder to "build" defense than offense. You need "good" players across the board, not just 1 or 2 "difference makers" (the offense can simply "avoid" those players). But regarding the OP's points...

(1) Sure good coaching always improves things but good defense depends heavily on good talent.

(2) I'm not sure how much "reputation" figures into the recruiting game. Regardless, FSU is a major recruiting force in the most prolific football talent state in the country. Until the last year or two of the Bowden era Micky Andrews consistently put great defense on the field.

(3) I have no idea about that but season ticket sales are lagging suggesting more fans are in "wait and see" mode

Peace
 

gamecockcat

Heisman
Oct 29, 2004
10,524
13,501
0
I think I read on this board or maybe ESPN that Elliot is a highly regarded defensive mind. So I'm not sure that Stoops should become the de facto DC, if true. I do think the talent level on defense has been improved although some units only marginally (DL, for sure). I do think we have a bit more quality depth than before Stoops. I also think an effective offense will help our defense immensely. A decent punter and coverage team wouldn't hurt, either.

With the exception of a couple of games last year, I thought the defense played up to expectations. Not a stone wall but not completely overmatched, either. Gotta fix the scheme/execution vs. running QB and find some way to put pressure on the QB. If we do, I think we'll see the defense improve by another 15-20 places in overall defense. I think that's our ceiling with the current level of talent across the board - mid 50s in total defense. Another couple of strong recruiting classes and we can improve on that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PTUKBlue

vhcat70

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
57,418
38,482
0
I believe with the recent coaching changes that we are getting to where we need to be as far as coaching. The next step is to recruit. We need depth on both sides of the ball. I know star rankings aren't everything but when put up against the other teams in the SEC we are number 13 out of 14 in average star ranking. We have some highly regarded starters and a huge drop off when it comes to the talent level in the second unit.

If we had depth like other teams in the SEC, players like Young and Elam would be able to redshirt and develop before being forced into playing. We don't have that luxury at Kentucky. Its going to take a few years to build depth at all positions like Coach Stoops had at Florida State.
I think I know what you're trying to say, but despite 13th, our quality is closer to the rest of the conference than in a long, long time & actually our 2nd unit is closer also. I.e., recruiting has been stepped up. That's JMO. However, to move recruiting forward further we have to step up wins with what we have. 5-7 again, Wills goes elsewhere. 7-5, he comes to UK. I think 7/6 wins most likely. Watch what happens if 7 happens.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jauk11

akaukswoosh

Hall of Famer
Jan 14, 2006
78,950
120,546
93
I think you will see Stoops be the de facto DC this fall. He has an OC that he trusts and is on the same page with him. He can leave that side of the ball in Gran's hands.
That would make sense and make Gran very happy imo.
 

Soupbean

All-American
Jan 19, 2007
5,945
8,109
0
He's done ok with what he's had to work with and I think we'll think a lot more of him after this year if we see the improvement in secondary and LB that we could see. Especially in the DBs where Stoops has his expertise and has been more hands on.

But the one area I look for most in a D Coordinator to see if they are making an impact is simply in the style of play or aggressiveness in how they play. This is the one are they can impact no matter the personnel. Mason at Vandy has to be doing with more than X and O's and I think he gets the results he does mostly with attitude and an aggressive style of play that filters from himself down to the players.

I'm still looking for that from Stoops and Eliot. I believe they know their stuff as much as anyone but not sure yet they are building that attitude yet. Eliot especially seems too nice a guy for that but maybe he'll prove me wrong. Gotta be a little nasty to be a good DC in my opinion.
 

lex cath

Heisman
Jan 6, 2016
7,782
12,104
0
Beyond Expectation? Well, I expect Landon Young to help out. The other 2 guys? Kash Daniel will probably play, but not sure he'll be a factor. Drake Jackson may red shirt. You might want to ease back on the expectations of guys "cause they're from KY". That won't automatically elevate anything. This is SEC football. If anything, we've had too many "KY guys" in the past that were highly rated turn out to be busts. Hope that isn't the case with these guys.

Don't agree, Landon is five star 6'7" 300 rated in top 5 and Cash is if you heard from the interview with Courtney Love he said Cash was a man among boys so those two things make me feel feel these guys are impact players. The players know more than we do, I'm all in and if they don't perform this year then I'll eat my words no problem and I know they are true freshman but I've just got a feeling these KY kids are going to be the backbone of this program, hell Drake and Cash were all American captains that must at least give us hope and if Drake wasn't behind Toth he might be starting who knows but these kids will be huge for us in the next few years and this year too IMO ! Go Cats !
 

shutzhund

All-Conference
Nov 19, 2005
29,202
2,619
0
I assumed when Mark Stoops, a defensive-minded guy, was hired, that 1) his knowledge and focus would elevate UK's defensive play significantly, and 2) that his reputation, especially at Florida State, would help him recruit difference makers on defense. Since defense is when we can really make noise, I also assumed 3) that we'd be looking forward to a more raucous stadium celebrating repeated defensive 3 and outs. Yet, as we approach season #4, it's the offense people seem to have more confidence in, and the defense that has the biggest question marks. Certainly within the league, our defensive achievements and reputation thus far remain pedestrian, and the Florida State cachet, if it was ever there, has receded. So now I'm starting to wonder if those were faulty assumptions, and if we can expect to field an above average defense any time soon....?


UK football has done more to dash great expectations than Congress.
 

RV

Heisman
Jun 26, 2005
8,089
13,585
0
Don't agree, Landon is five star 6'7" 300 rated in top 5 and Cash is if you heard from the interview with Courtney Love he said Cash was a man among boys so those two things make me feel feel these guys are impact players. The players know more than we do, I'm all in and if they don't perform this year then I'll eat my words no problem and I know they are true freshman but I've just got a feeling these KY kids are going to be the backbone of this program, hell Drake and Cash were all American captains that must at least give us hope and if Drake wasn't behind Toth he might be starting who knows but these kids will be huge for us in the next few years and this year too IMO ! Go Cats !

Kash
 
Oct 16, 2015
33
37
0
UK runs the 3-4 correct me if I'm wrong. Now this is a great scheme against the spread but you must be smart because your front 7 especially the DL is in charge of 2 gaps and all it take is 1 guy to take the wrong gap or take too long to pick his gap and you bust a run very fast. Also UK has had okay recruits but they haven't performed or just can't get a feel for the scheme. You have to be able to force teams to throw the ball in this league and if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be screaming for theD coordinator to stop the fun then work on stopping the pass.
 

JC CATS

Heisman
Jun 18, 2009
23,517
12,221
0
One hand washes the other.

The defense can't stay on the field for the minutes they have over the past few seasons.
Very true, and they have been given terrible field position too many times because of offensive ineptness or special team disasters
 
  • Like
Reactions: PTUKBlue

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
One hand washes the other.

The defense can't stay on the field for the minutes they have over the past few seasons.
Not to start an argument but I think this particular issue has been greatly exaggerated by some fans. Stats do not suggest a "substantial" difference. Looking at plays/game...

2013: UK 67 PPG; OPP 70 PPG Difference: UK -3
2014: UK 75 PPG; OPP 76 PPG Difference: UK -1
2015: UK 70 PPG; OPP 71 PPG Difference: UK -1

Looking at time of possession

2013: UK 28:00 Difference UK -4:00
2014: UK 28:40 Difference UK -2:40
2015: UK 29:17 Difference UK -1:26

The median TOP for they last 3 years has been 29:55, 29:48 and 29:44. To be truthful, I'm not sure "what" those figures mean. Obviously in a game where 1 team out snaps the other by 15 or more snaps it can be significant. But I just can see how a snap difference of 2 or 3 per game does much to support the argument "the defense was on the field too". JMO

Peace
 
Jun 6, 2016
276
487
0
Not to start an argument but I think this particular issue has been greatly exaggerated by some fans. Stats do not suggest a "substantial" difference. Looking at plays/game...

2013: UK 67 PPG; OPP 70 PPG Difference: UK -3
2014: UK 75 PPG; OPP 76 PPG Difference: UK -1
2015: UK 70 PPG; OPP 71 PPG Difference: UK -1

Looking at time of possession

2013: UK 28:00 Difference UK -4:00
2014: UK 28:40 Difference UK -2:40
2015: UK 29:17 Difference UK -1:26

The median TOP for they last 3 years has been 29:55, 29:48 and 29:44. To be truthful, I'm not sure "what" those figures mean. Obviously in a game where 1 team out snaps the other by 15 or more snaps it can be significant. But I just can see how a snap difference of 2 or 3 per game does much to support the argument "the defense was on the field too". JMO

Peace
Not sure what those stats say. If the offense and ST's leave your defense with poor field position it would say to me that the opponent would have the ball for less time and plays because they are scoring quickly.
 

TBCat

Heisman
Mar 30, 2007
14,317
10,331
0
Not to start an argument but I think this particular issue has been greatly exaggerated by some fans. Stats do not suggest a "substantial" difference. Looking at plays/game...

2013: UK 67 PPG; OPP 70 PPG Difference: UK -3
2014: UK 75 PPG; OPP 76 PPG Difference: UK -1
2015: UK 70 PPG; OPP 71 PPG Difference: UK -1

Looking at time of possession

2013: UK 28:00 Difference UK -4:00
2014: UK 28:40 Difference UK -2:40
2015: UK 29:17 Difference UK -1:26

The median TOP for they last 3 years has been 29:55, 29:48 and 29:44. To be truthful, I'm not sure "what" those figures mean. Obviously in a game where 1 team out snaps the other by 15 or more snaps it can be significant. But I just can see how a snap difference of 2 or 3 per game does much to support the argument "the defense was on the field too". JMO

Peace
ToP has never been one of my favorite stats because it doesn't tell much. Number of plays run by both offenses is more meaningful. You can improve ToP a lot by simply taking more time between snaps.
 

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
Not sure what those stats say. If the offense and ST's leave your defense with poor field position it would say to me that the opponent would have the ball for less time and plays because they are scoring quickly.

ToP has never been one of my favorite stats because it doesn't tell much. Number of plays run by both offenses is more meaningful. You can improve ToP a lot by simply taking more time between snaps.
I totally agree with both of you guys. I threw these numbers out here because there are a number of fans that seemed to think the Cat's defense was on the field the whole game. On the average it was just a snap or 2 more than their opponents.

Now, field position is different subject altogether and is (IMO) a much more meaningful metric. Unfortunately, I have not yet found a stats site that logs this data so it requires considerable effort to dig it out of play by play summaries.

Peace
 

*Bleedingblue*

Heisman
Mar 5, 2009
39,602
30,448
113
At what level of competition are those stats taken against?
How many yards per play were being given up?

I do know we played against some very poof offenses last season. The times that we played against decently ranked offenses we got blown out.
It was hardly ever our DB's that was the problem with our D. It's mainly been the front 7. It's either the coaches, players or the 3/4 sytem. It's one of them and everybody will point fingers at each one of them and blame them.... well might as well throw the offense in their as well. Since the inability of the D to get 3 in outs is the offenses fault.
Vandy stuffed us on 3 separate occasions in trying to score on their goal line. Do you think our D is capable of that? I know some of that was the offensive coordinator and the QB trying to get fancy but I doubt our D would have stopped those same plays.
 

vhcat70

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
57,418
38,482
0
Not to start an argument but I think this particular issue has been greatly exaggerated by some fans. Stats do not suggest a "substantial" difference. Looking at plays/game...

2013: UK 67 PPG; OPP 70 PPG Difference: UK -3
2014: UK 75 PPG; OPP 76 PPG Difference: UK -1
2015: UK 70 PPG; OPP 71 PPG Difference: UK -1
Without taking the effort to separate these numbers out by OOC vs. SEC games, I'll hazard the numbers are much worse for SEC games & a fair part of why we were only 5-7 the last two years. Net, I doubt too much is being made of it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PTUKBlue