Final lineup data

CappyNU

Junior
Mar 2, 2004
5,163
343
83
This year, Collins had 11 different lineups that saw at least 2% of action together. All lineups played at least 25 possessions together.

Successful lineups:
Boo-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Young (+22, best defensive performance by far). This lineup featured in 12 games this year, with the most success coming against PSU, IU, and Nebraska.

Boo-Audige-Gaines-Kopp-Nance (+18). This lineup had great success in the first two conference matchups before getting crushed against OSU, used sparingly over the next couple games, before having a great game against OSU the 2nd time. Also had a great run against Wisconsin the 1st time before getting shut out against PSU. Wasn't used the next 4 games before having a great game against Illinois, but then was barely used the rest of the season. Somewhat head-scratching.

Boo-Gaines-Kopp-Beran-Nance (+3, but 5 more defensive possessions than offensive). First appeared in 1st Wisconsin game and played well, was on fire offensively against PSU, but then was used very sparingly the rest of the season. Was one of the two effective lineups against the Gophers yesterday.

Mediocre lineups:
Greer-Berry-Gaines-Kopp-Young (even). Somehow the best offensive lineup out of all of the most-used lineups, but unfortunately got roasted on D. Started off the season great against MSU, got destroyed by Michigan, and in most other games played roughly even. This lineup did not play again following the Purdue game when Greer didn't play.

Audige-Gaines-Kopp-Nance-Young (-7). First used against Michigan in a desperate attempt to make something work, not seen again until the 1st Rutgers game where it kept us in it. Became the starting lineup for the next 4 games with reasonable success until Illinois destroyed it and it was never seen again.

Boo-Audige-Kopp-Nance-Young (+3, but 12 more offensive possessions than defensive). Used sparingly until the 1st Rutgers game, where it had some success over the next 4 games. Had a great game against Minny the 1st time and kept us in it yesterday. Maybe should have played a bit more throughout the season but often couldn't score enough to stay in the game.

Boo-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Nance (-37). The bellcow lineup, starting 13 conference games. Started off the season great until the 1st Illinois game where it was shut down. Rebounded to play well against OSU in the 2nd game, but after that the effectiveness tapered off significantly. Through the first 7 conference games, it put up 1.10 PPP. The next 8 games it put up a putrid 0.65 PPP before putting up 0.94 PPP in the final 5. Defensively it also tanked hard after the first 7 games, going from 1.01 PPP to 1.14 PPP in the last 13.

Greer-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Young (-10, but 5 more defensive possessions than offensive). Played well in 1st OSU game and 1st Illinois game, poorly in 2nd OSU game. Not seen again until 2nd IU game where it scored well but was a sieve on defense. Not seen again since.

Terrifyingly bad lineups:
Boo-Berry-Gaines-Kopp-Young (-29). Swapping Greer for Boo from the above mediocre lineup led to a wretched 0.61 PPP on offense paired with an inability to stop anyone on defense. First seen in the 1st game against IU with poor results, not seen again until the first Illinois game where it was shut out. Played sparingly over the next 5 games with bad results, played some more the rest of the season after Berry returned, never had a good game.

Boo-Audige-Gaines-Kopp-Young (-39). Swapping Audige for Berry from the above terrifyingly bad lineup led to an unfathomably awful 0.51 PPP with an equal inability to stop teams from scoring. Also first seen against IU in the 1st matchup. Played terribly in 1st Iowa, Michigan, 2nd OSU, PSU, 2nd IU games, merely poorly in the others it played.

Greer-Berry-Audige-Gaines-Young (-23). The much-maligned 1st half lineup from yesterday's game, where it held its own, but otherwise displayed a shocking inability to stop opponents while not scoring much. Did not have a single game holding opponents to less than 1.50 PPP until yesterday.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,128
2,561
113
This year, Collins had 11 different lineups that saw at least 2% of action together. All lineups played at least 25 possessions together.

Successful lineups:
Boo-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Young (+22, best defensive performance by far). This lineup featured in 12 games this year, with the most success coming against PSU, IU, and Nebraska.

Boo-Audige-Gaines-Kopp-Nance (+18). This lineup had great success in the first two conference matchups before getting crushed against OSU, used sparingly over the next couple games, before having a great game against OSU the 2nd time. Also had a great run against Wisconsin the 1st time before getting shut out against PSU. Wasn't used the next 4 games before having a great game against Illinois, but then was barely used the rest of the season. Somewhat head-scratching.

Boo-Gaines-Kopp-Beran-Nance (+3, but 5 more defensive possessions than offensive). First appeared in 1st Wisconsin game and played well, was on fire offensively against PSU, but then was used very sparingly the rest of the season. Was one of the two effective lineups against the Gophers yesterday.

Mediocre lineups:
Greer-Berry-Gaines-Kopp-Young (even). Somehow the best offensive lineup out of all of the most-used lineups, but unfortunately got roasted on D. Started off the season great against MSU, got destroyed by Michigan, and in most other games played roughly even. This lineup did not play again following the Purdue game when Greer didn't play.

Audige-Gaines-Kopp-Nance-Young (-7). First used against Michigan in a desperate attempt to make something work, not seen again until the 1st Rutgers game where it kept us in it. Became the starting lineup for the next 4 games with reasonable success until Illinois destroyed it and it was never seen again.

Boo-Audige-Kopp-Nance-Young (+3, but 12 more offensive possessions than defensive). Used sparingly until the 1st Rutgers game, where it had some success over the next 4 games. Had a great game against Minny the 1st time and kept us in it yesterday. Maybe should have played a bit more throughout the season but often couldn't score enough to stay in the game.

Boo-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Nance (-37). The bellcow lineup, starting 13 conference games. Started off the season great until the 1st Illinois game where it was shut down. Rebounded to play well against OSU in the 2nd game, but after that the effectiveness tapered off significantly. Through the first 7 conference games, it put up 1.10 PPP. The next 8 games it put up a putrid 0.65 PPP before putting up 0.94 PPP in the final 5. Defensively it also tanked hard after the first 7 games, going from 1.01 PPP to 1.14 PPP in the last 13.

Greer-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Young (-10, but 5 more defensive possessions than offensive). Played well in 1st OSU game and 1st Illinois game, poorly in 2nd OSU game. Not seen again until 2nd IU game where it scored well but was a sieve on defense. Not seen again since.

Terrifyingly bad lineups:
Boo-Berry-Gaines-Kopp-Young (-29). Swapping Greer for Boo from the above mediocre lineup led to a wretched 0.61 PPP on offense paired with an inability to stop anyone on defense. First seen in the 1st game against IU with poor results, not seen again until the first Illinois game where it was shut out. Played sparingly over the next 5 games with bad results, played some more the rest of the season after Berry returned, never had a good game.

Boo-Audige-Gaines-Kopp-Young (-39). Swapping Audige for Berry from the above terrifyingly bad lineup led to an unfathomably awful 0.51 PPP with an equal inability to stop teams from scoring. Also first seen against IU in the 1st matchup. Played terribly in 1st Iowa, Michigan, 2nd OSU, PSU, 2nd IU games, merely poorly in the others it played.

Greer-Berry-Audige-Gaines-Young (-23). The much-maligned 1st half lineup from yesterday's game, where it held its own, but otherwise displayed a shocking inability to stop opponents while not scoring much. Did not have a single game holding opponents to less than 1.50 PPP until yesterday.
So, the bottom line is pretty much every combination was inconsistent and some flat our stunk. Spotty shooters and a few defensive liabilities results in 6 wins and a bunch of losses.
 

loyolacat

Freshman
Oct 21, 2006
2,699
50
48
I am not sure this is a pure statistic as there are sooo many other factors that could effect the # but I do think it brings out a couple things to me....they had a problem getting the right guys on the court, specifically to have a line up that was solid defensively and offensively....So what would be your line up for next year be? the +22 ? My final thought on the season is that they ran the wrong offense most the time.....They ran the 5 out w/o a lot of guys who could get to the basket from the perimeter and they got pressed on the outside with the ball.
 

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
Biggest problem of the +/- is that it does not capture who the lineup played against on the other side. Still provides useful information for sure
 

Cat-Court-Jester

Redshirt
Jan 6, 2006
126
14
0
NUOppFT DifferentialResult
MSU1810+8W
Indiana1316-3W
OSU1415-1W
Io_a1225-13L
Mich1214-2L
UIUC1821-3L
OSU2125-4L
Io_a1426-12L
Wisc711-4L
PSU1226-14L
Rutgers1722-5L
Purdue1124-13L
Indiana1238-26LLost by 3 points! Largest FT differential for ANY Big Ten men's bball game in 2020-21, minus 26! And we lost by 3 points
Rutgers1216-4L
UIUC822-14L
Wisc815-7L
Minny2710+17W
Maryland117+4W
Nebraska916-7W
Minny1224-12L
SUM B10-115L
Non-Con+ 283 Ws, 1 L
 
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Cat-Court-Jester

Redshirt
Jan 6, 2006
126
14
0
Takeaways on the above:
  1. When NU wins the FT differential, we almost always win the game (and always in B10, 3-0)

  2. When NU loses the FT differential, we *usually* lose (in B10, 3-14 when losing FT differential)
Great lineup data Cappy - fascinating stuff!

*Thanks for the catch Cappy, corrected
 
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CappyNU

Junior
Mar 2, 2004
5,163
343
83
Takeaways on the above:
  1. When NU wins the FT differential, we usually win the game.

  2. When NU loses the FT differential, we lose. Every single time.
Great lineup data Cappy - fascinating stuff!
I think you need to fix this - when we win the FT differential we win every time, we won 3 games while losing the FT battle.
 

Cat-Court-Jester

Redshirt
Jan 6, 2006
126
14
0
I think you need to fix this - when we win the FT differential we win every time, we won 3 games while losing the FT battle.

Yes, it should be...
  1. When NU wins the FT differential, we almost always win the game.

    >>>we were overall 6-1 this year when winning the FT differential, 3-0 B10. We had that one quirky Pitt loss with a horrible sequence at the end. We were +6 FT differential that game, but lost by 1.

  2. When NU loses the FT differential, we *usually* lose.
>>>In the B10 we were 3-14 when losing the FT differential, 4-14 overall

FT differential proves to be a highly predictive stat. If you gave someone FT differential alone and they had to guess the W-L outcome of the game, they would be able to correctly predict outcome between 80-90% of the time.

I'd like to analyze this by which B10 ref is assigned to NU games. I have noticed patterns. It's almost like if you had the B10 ref assignments, you could make some money in Vegas... or online these days.
 
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Cat-Court-Jester

Redshirt
Jan 6, 2006
126
14
0
Interesting from Maryland coach Mark Turgeon's post-game presser today: he said after their two previous games with Michigan he has called the B10 conference office and the B10 Commissioner.

Michigan's first two games against Maryland, Michigan averaged 21 FTs per game, Today they had 7 FTs.

Or maybe Turgeon called after the first Michigan - Maryland game, when Michigan shot 20 FTs, Maryland shot 6. Because the second game Maryland shot 30 FTs.

I wonder if Collins has ever called the B10 Commissioner...

🤔

Here's a link: https://fb.watch/4bwMmG1KKy/
 

CappyNU

Junior
Mar 2, 2004
5,163
343
83
I am not sure this is a pure statistic as there are sooo many other factors that could effect the # but I do think it brings out a couple things to me....they had a problem getting the right guys on the court, specifically to have a line up that was solid defensively and offensively....So what would be your line up for next year be? the +22 ? My final thought on the season is that they ran the wrong offense most the time.....They ran the 5 out w/o a lot of guys who could get to the basket from the perimeter and they got pressed on the outside with the ball.
You're definitely right, I like to use it to see if there are any trends, but this year there was so much inconsistency between lineups that it was hard to see much.

For example, looking at the 4 spot:
Beran with Nance/Young (48% of mins) - 0.98 PPP for, 1.05 PPP against
Kopp with Nance/Young (24%) - 0.99 PPP for, 1.13 PPP against
Gaines with Nance/Young (5%) - 0.78 PPP for, 1.21 PPP against
Nance/Young combo (19%) - 0.93 PPP for, 0.92 PPP against

But within those groups, let's just say the variance is quite large.