Got the monkey off our back. Pretty solid wire to wire win. D stepped up Rebounding better and solid play out of several Frosh. Still can't hit 3s and too many fouls but finally a win. On the road
Finally
- Thread starter hdhntr1
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Stories of the death of our defense have been greatly exaggerated all season. Rebounding has improved (but won’t be a strength with this team). The obstacle is 100% that nobody can make an open three.
USC is 14-5 and we are 9-10 and I think we beat them 800 out of 1,000 times. The free throw disparity was laughable and we could have won by 20 if we made even 35% of iur threes.
We have dug too deep a hole to climb out of now, but this team has underperformed its talent level since the Virginia game. Coaching? Execution? Lack of killer instinct? No second scorer? Odd lineup choices? Pick your poison, but I will die on the hill that this team should at least have been a fringe discussion for the NCAAs.
USC is 14-5 and we are 9-10 and I think we beat them 800 out of 1,000 times. The free throw disparity was laughable and we could have won by 20 if we made even 35% of iur threes.
We have dug too deep a hole to climb out of now, but this team has underperformed its talent level since the Virginia game. Coaching? Execution? Lack of killer instinct? No second scorer? Odd lineup choices? Pick your poison, but I will die on the hill that this team should at least have been a fringe discussion for the NCAAs.
They both played very well.
Green still can’t make a shot, but he contributed a lot too. Like Reid coming off pine to hopefully jolt the offense.
playing 10-11 guys has always been too many. Cutting guys from the rotation was a necessary evil.
Kropp was excellent in all phases and will be a force going forward. West is our starting point guard for the rest of the season and he made some threes when it counted. The 2 freshmen scored 22 points between them.
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I watched the game this morning and it was fun to see the guys get a hard-earned win. A lot of the flaws were still there, including the missed shots and fouls galore. But the rebounding was better against a big, physical USC team. And, of course, guys stepped up to help Nick out.
Also, it is so obvious how much better the offense flows when West is running the point. He dribbles with a purpose and is always looking to make the pass. Reid dribbles around way too much and it just gums everything up. I also can't remember the last time I saw Reid get into the paint and then make the crafty assist for an easy bucket for somebody else. West did that multiple times in this game alone. Reid has some skills, so he can still be an asset, but it clearly has to be in a reduced role coming off the bench.
Similarly, I thought Kroft provided a toughness on both ends of the floor that we just don't see with Page. I feel like we don't see Page protecting the paint nearly enough for a guy with his size and athletic ability. Kroft was in there clogging things up. Page has skills that Kroft clearly doesn't at this point, but I'm not sure it's worth it. Hopefully, we stick with the youth movement going forward.
Still wish we had guys who could make threes. I won't knock the same guys over and over, but it is frustrating to watch.
I'm thrilled with the win, but as others have said, the 17 missed free throws was an anomaly and was the difference in the game.
Reid dribble penetrated vs Illinois and made some pull up jumpers and dished a few inside. That’s exactly how he needs to play.
Some people probably tried to watch but immediately turned it off due to the Pink/Black/Cardinal and Gold color clash which, when combined with USC shooting 43 free throws, made it a tough watch. I'll take the refs from the Nebraska game over this crap any day.
The anomaly was USC taking 43 free throws. It ruins the game. Especially when they refuse to call a clear foul on USC in the last minute when they mugged West and called a jump ball. Just some amazing stuff from the zebras. That said, this is what happens in the Big10 where refs feel the need to call fouls on freshman league wide and NU starts 3 of them.
West has been the most impressive first year on the team, IMHO. Solid ball handler. Decent three point shot. Runs the offense well, as you stated. Totally agree with the "dribbling around way too much" for Reid - that is the clear differentiator for me between the two PGs. And when was the last time we had a PG who could dunk it on a fast-break opportunity? (Loved that play!) West seems to play taller than his listed 6'3", while Reid definitely looks every bit of his 5'10".
When Reid is on, he can be electric, but he has not been as a good of a facilitator of the offense as West has been. When his shot is falling, I think he stops looking for others and the flow of the offense bogs down. West still makes a few freshman mistakes, but I agree, I prefer him starting over Reid going forward.
Kropp, I'm not yet sold on. Clearly had a good game and has a lot of potential. He does have a "doggedness" that reminds of Sanjay Lumpkin - just does all the dirty work. I still like Page, although I think he takes too many outside shots - he can hit them, but I would prefer that his first look would be to get into the paint rather than settling for a jumper. Defensively, Page has been pretty good when he can stay inside, but when he is forced to run all over the court after switches and double-teams, I don't think he is as effective. He had that great trap with Green to force the errant pass last night.
I like Green, but I do wish he could find his 3-pt form with more consistency. I think he is the one player whose accuracy from deep has been the most disappointing, mainly because his ceiling is higher, in my opinion. For example, when Clayton/Mullins/Gelo takes a three, I admit that I am surprised when it goes in. When Green takes a three, I am surprised when it doesn't. For some reason, it feels more disappointing when his shot isn't falling, I think because we saw earlier in the year how accurate he can be.
Exactly right. It was tough to watch with the ticky tack fouls. Let them play a little.
Those guys (couple with Singleton) are the future
How many of those FTs were questionable whether they should have gotten them?
I believe you mean Kropp and everyone was missing 3s last night (Both teams) And USC getting 43 FTs is a lot (could have been more as they missed front ends of 1-1 a couple times
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I don’t know if I would say “pretty good” defensively. I think he is still struggling with really figuring it out, especially with the inconsistent reffing. Early in the season he was picking up a lot of silly fouls playing aggressively on D. Sort of the same way Singleton plays aggressive D with his hands and always seems to pick up several Ricky tackles calls each game. For Page, there were a few games he fouled out of, or went to the bench early because of that defensive aggression.
sadly, what I see now is his being in position defensively to defend the post or basket, and making little effort to block a shot or go after a rebound. Marsh drive the lane several times and page was there to help defend but there was no anticipation to block a shot - his hands were at his side and his body language was passive watching the play happen…. Yes the double with Green was excellent, but far too little effort throughout the rest of the game.
I don’t know if any player can overcome the inconsistent reffing, but I would guess CCC would prefer a player go all out each game effort wise, hopefully with some BB IQ to avoid the silly fouls.
With players stepping up beginning with this game, we might be able to afford players fouling out if the get max effort offensively AND defensively. West, Singleton, Kropp, Martinelli and Green all proved that last night!
I knew that. Not sure what I was thinking. My brain must have been doing some kind of forced autocorrect.
Just alluding to the 11 PM east coast start.... where all the important people live!
I've come around to this position, sort of. We're not a good defensive team and are a horrible rebounding team which makes the defense even worse... but we're not so bad that a really good offense can't win games. But you 1. can't be a really good offense when you don't shoot threes for **** and 2. our up tempo style we tried to create with Reid early in the season has flopped, we don't manage any bid advantage in fast breaks or transition leading to easy buckets. So it's ultimately equally valid to blame our struggles on our strength not actually being all that strong as it is our weakness being expectedly weak.
I already feel confident West is going to be a strong player (hopefully for us). I dunno if he'll be our next star point guard, but maybe he'll be Collins' first non-star but strong point guard that can help us close out games as a team.
Kropp... we'll just see if he can build on this, a Freshman coming into his own around this time of his first season and starting to contribute wouldn't be an unheard of story. Even if he has ups and downs the rest of the way it speaks well to his improvement and upside.
Hey, the luck monster has been takething away too much this year, eventually it will giveth.
As for the fouls, it's frustrating to see so many called but at least it seemed like the officials set the tone early for what they were going to call and mostly stuck to it. You can argue we get the short end of the whistle but we also do legitimately foul a lot. Our guys get caught off their feet a ton and you just aren't going to get the benefit of the doubt when you defend like that. And though the foul numbers went against us (25-19) we were able to get Chad Baker-Mazara (who is literally turning 26 years old next week) to foul out with 9 minutes left.
West isn’t a better creator than Reid at this point. Reid is still more reliable when it comes to actually generating offense. That said, they complement each other really well. West is clearly getting more comfortable creating as the season goes on, especially attacking advantages instead of forcing things. Defensively he’s still got work to do, particularly with positioning and consistency. Upside is clear and the board sees it
Kropp gave them a solid outing. Long term, he looks like the type of guy who can settle into a very useful role player.
Tre catches way too much grief from the fanbase. Yes, the fouling is an issue, but that’s part of playing a freshman big real minutes. He’s a versatile defender and very smooth around the rim. Reid gets a lot of heat too, and I think some of it is unlucky variance. If a few of those shots around the rim fall instead of rolling off, we’re talking about a very different perception of his season. He profiles well as a potential high-level sixth man next year.
I don’t buy the idea that the transfers don’t fit the NU system. The effort and the culture are clearly there. They play hard and they’re trying to do the right things. The issue is execution, which is exactly why most of these guys still had multiple years of eligibility when they arrived. This team just doesn’t have the two-way stars like Boo, Barnhizer, or Law, and it also lacks the kind of defensive anchor inside that Pardon or Nicholson provided. This isn’t a good team but the future is still bright. I don’t think they’re that far away.
Kropp gave them a solid outing. Long term, he looks like the type of guy who can settle into a very useful role player.
Tre catches way too much grief from the fanbase. Yes, the fouling is an issue, but that’s part of playing a freshman big real minutes. He’s a versatile defender and very smooth around the rim. Reid gets a lot of heat too, and I think some of it is unlucky variance. If a few of those shots around the rim fall instead of rolling off, we’re talking about a very different perception of his season. He profiles well as a potential high-level sixth man next year.
I don’t buy the idea that the transfers don’t fit the NU system. The effort and the culture are clearly there. They play hard and they’re trying to do the right things. The issue is execution, which is exactly why most of these guys still had multiple years of eligibility when they arrived. This team just doesn’t have the two-way stars like Boo, Barnhizer, or Law, and it also lacks the kind of defensive anchor inside that Pardon or Nicholson provided. This isn’t a good team but the future is still bright. I don’t think they’re that far away.
It’s defense, man. We are giving up more points per game than any NU team in the last 30 years!
Record can be whatever it is. I remain convinced this is the most raw talent we every had on a roster. That does not mean wins, at least not for now.
Yet I am having a really hard time being interested in the games and college bball in general. I full agree players deserve to get paid. But that does not mean I have to like the final product. It feels like little league bball now.
Yet I am having a really hard time being interested in the games and college bball in general. I full agree players deserve to get paid. But that does not mean I have to like the final product. It feels like little league bball now.
Likely scoring more than most historical teams, too. I’d be more interested in efg% allowed and points per possession as historical comps. Past NU teams took the air out of the ball on purpose.
I am not contending this is a good defensive unit. But it isn’t why we are losing. Not to my eyes, anyway.
It is a combination. and the D is one reason. Not blocking out, Rebounding (especially defensive) , D overall, failure to hit 3s, missed FTs All goes together and next thing you know, 0-7
It would be difficult to cite a more useless stats we are also the highest scoring northwestern team since the 70s. We just play a little faster, more possessions. Our points per possession is only 1.04, which is merely subpar. It’s only fifth worst in the Big Ten and is actually just inside the top 100 nationally. It’s not HORRIBLE for an offensive team, but it is poor.
unfortunately our offense is ALSO below average in the Big Ten. Despite being improved at 10th.
Which should really go to emphasize that for all the problems this team shouldn’t be 1-7 in the back of the conference. On a per possession basis the team is a below average but competitive Big Ten team. But we **** ip close games.
Fair points, though Torvik stats indicate our D is much worse than our O. Is there data on how much faster we play? I think it explains a bit but our D is still the problem. Makes sense to me we struggle late in games with a young team and without an alpha.
Reid is a tiny guard in a big, physical conference. His speed is his greatest asset, and we are a half court offense. It’s just not a great fit (nothing to do with culture).
Page is a 4. He certainly plays like it. He does not seem comfortable in the paint. He wants to face the basket. We needed someone to replace Big Matt in the paint. We didn’t get it and it shows.
Here's the +/- by lineup against USC. With all the fouls called it allowed Collins to do a lot of offense/defense lineup switching especially in the 2nd half, which is why the numbers are a bit imbalanced:
Since first debuting in the 2nd half against Rutgers, lineups with Reid and West together are +24 in four games, which means that lineups without both are -50 over the same span.
| Lineup | +/- | Possessions off/def |
|---|---|---|
| West-Green-Mart-Tre-Kropp | -2 | 14/14 |
| Reid-West-Green-Mart-Kropp | +14 | 14/9 |
| West-Clayton-Green-Mart-Kropp | +4 | 10/10 |
| Reid-Gelo-Mullins-Mart-Page | -2 | 5/5 |
| West-Clayton-Green-Mart-Page | 0 | 5/3 |
| Reid-West-Green-Page-Kropp | +1 | 4/5 |
| West-Clayton-Green-Tre-Page | -2 | 3/4 |
| Reid-Clayton-Gelo-Mart-Page | -1 | 2/3 |
| Reid-West-Clayton-Mart-Kropp | 0 | 2/2 |
| West-Clayton-Mart-Tre-Kropp | -6 | 1/5 |
| Reid-West-Mart-Tre-Kropp | 0 | 1/2 |
| Reid-Green-Gelo-Mart-Page | -2 | 1/1 |
| West-Clayton-Gelo-Mart-Kropp | 0 | 1/1 |
| Reid-Clayton-Green-Mart-Page | 0 | 1/1 |
| West-Clayton-Green-Page-Kropp | 0 | 1/0 |
| West-Clayton-Gelo-Mart-Page | +2 | 1/0 |
| Reid-West-Mart-Page-Kropp | +1 | 1/0 |
| Reid-West-Clayton-Mullins-Mart | -1 | 0/1 |
Since first debuting in the 2nd half against Rutgers, lineups with Reid and West together are +24 in four games, which means that lineups without both are -50 over the same span.
Reid 100% fits the offense. He’s legitimately effective in the half court. He can get downhill, collapse the defense, and generate a lot of quality looks for teammates. The jumper has been respectable enough to space the floor, he moves the ball well, and he’s capable of creating his own shot when needed. He’s not just a connector, he can actually bend the defense.
I think Page plays much more like a 5 than a 4. At 6’11”, 245, he’s strong enough to finish through contact and draw fouls, and he’s got soft enough touch to score inside. He gets mislabeled as a 4 because he’s a modern big. He can pass, put the ball on the floor to attack closeouts, and knock down an occasional jumper. Defensively, from an athletic and tools standpoint, he fits at the 5. He’s a better shot blocker than he gets credit for when he’s in the right spots, he’s big and strong enough to wall up, and he’s mobile enough to be a solid help defender and stay in front of most opposing bigs.
The issue isn’t ability, it’s processing and feel. The positioning, reads, and timing just aren’t there yet. That stuff takes time, especially for bigs, and he still has another year and a full offseason to work through it.
The complaints shouldn’t really be about fit. The real issue is that these guys aren’t instant impact, upper-level Big Ten players. To get back to the tournament, NU needed two more guys at that level. There are plenty of reasons they weren’t able to land that in the portal and instead opted for more developmental pieces.
The numbers are actually staggering comparing the two sets of lineups (Reid and West vs Reid or West):
Offense
Defense
Reid and West lineups have accounted for 1/3 of possessions in this 4 game span, and with the exception of defensive rebounding, they significantly outperform Reid or West lineups across the board.
At an individual level, you can see the improvements clearly as well:
Martinelli - eFG% 60.4% with both, 44.0% without
Reid - eFG% 67.6% with both, 35.3% without; assist rate 40.0 with both, 31.8 without
West - assist rate 10.8 with both, 37.0 without
Tre - offensive rebound rate 13.6% with both, 7.1% without
Page - offensive rebound rate 14.3% with both, 9.6% without
Clearly something works much better with the spacing that the two PG lineup provides, and I hope we see a lot more of it moving forward. It does mean that we have a massive logjam for minutes between Green, Gelo, Clayton, and Mullins.
Offense
| Lineups | eFG% | Off. Reb% | FT Rate | 3PA rate | 3pt% | Midrange attempt rate | 2pt% | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid and West | 59.5% | 32.4% | 40.5 | 25.7 | 42.1% | 41.9 | 58.2% | 1.34 PPP |
| Reid or West | 41.8% | 26.4% | 26.4 | 32.7 | 28.8% | 35.2 | 41.1% | 1.05 PPP |
Defense
| Lineups | eFG% | Def. Reb% | FT Rate | 3PA rate | 3pt% | Midrange attempt rate | 2pt% | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid and West | 44.2% | 62.7% | 36.4 | 33.8 | 30.8% | 31.2 | 43.1% | 1.09 PPP |
| Reid or West | 54.9% | 70.5% | 41.2 | 39.9 | 36.1% | 26.8 | 55.4% | 1.14 PPP |
Reid and West lineups have accounted for 1/3 of possessions in this 4 game span, and with the exception of defensive rebounding, they significantly outperform Reid or West lineups across the board.
At an individual level, you can see the improvements clearly as well:
Martinelli - eFG% 60.4% with both, 44.0% without
Reid - eFG% 67.6% with both, 35.3% without; assist rate 40.0 with both, 31.8 without
West - assist rate 10.8 with both, 37.0 without
Tre - offensive rebound rate 13.6% with both, 7.1% without
Page - offensive rebound rate 14.3% with both, 9.6% without
Clearly something works much better with the spacing that the two PG lineup provides, and I hope we see a lot more of it moving forward. It does mean that we have a massive logjam for minutes between Green, Gelo, Clayton, and Mullins.
To me, it's a simple matter that West and Reid are two of the better players on this team. You have to get your best guys on the floor more. When I first saw this double point guard lineup put out there together, I applauded. Not because it's some clever scheme, but simply because they are both good players who aren't afraid of the moment. The other alternatives at that second guard spot just don't add anything.
Oh, KenPom agrees our defense is much worse than our O, and it’s still worse per possession than it’s been in the Collins era, but it’s not all that bad per possession overall, just subpar. Meanwhile, the strength of our team IS a relative strength by our standards, but still isn’t nearly good enough.
So yeah, my point isn’t that our defense is good because it isn’t. I’m more just articulating that one come around on the idea that our defense is non-disastrous and it’s at least as much of a problem that our supposedly offensively focused team doesn’t actually score all that well (mostly because we don’t shoot threes) as it is our offensively focused team is merely not very good defensively.
It’s interesting how Reid and West together has emerged consistently as the best lineup