This is probably better as an off-season thread, but it is too late for that, and unlikely I will remember by the next off-season - so here we are.
I am occasionally asked to weigh in on whether fifth year wrestlers are good because of the experience or bad because of the grind. Or maybe somewhere in between. While I did not have the data until recently to make an informed statement, I do now.
How Big is the Pile?
Using NCAA tournament results from 1969 - 2025 I identified 990 wrestlers who participated in either four or five tournaments AND scored in at least three tournaments - 964 four tournament wrestlers and 26 five tournament wrestlers. Then I examined their career trajectories using total NCAA tournament points scored by year.
The numbers of wrestlers with long tournament careers have been steadily growing by the decade. From an average of ~9 per year in the 1970's it has grown to over 31 per year so far this decade
But Do They Get Better At Wrestling?
In general, the answer is a resounding yes. The four tournament guys progress from winning a match or two as freshmen to making the podium as seniors. The five tournament guys came out of the shoot as low AA’s before reverting a bit to blood round guys as sophomores but then rallying over their next three tournaments to put up double digits.
Is There More Behind the Headline Numbers?
I am glad you asked. I had the thought that maybe there was a difference between the experience of wrestlers who spent their entire career with a single school vs those who wrestled for more than one school at the NCAA tournament.
Turns out there is a difference. While transfers in the four tournament group generally did a little worse than non-transfers, in the five tournament group transfers outperformed non-transfers in years two, three and four. After ramping up each year the five tournament transfer athletes had a bit of reversion in year five but still maintaining an AA level of performance.
One caveat: I am not using the word transfer correctly here. It is possible to be a transfer and still wrestle at the tournament for a single school. But combing through that list was too hard so I did not do it.
Trivia Time
Among the five tournament wrestlers, three had increased their point production for the first four years. But only one of those three was able to keep the streak alive.
Can you name the only wrestler to participate in five tournaments and increase his scoring output each time?
I am occasionally asked to weigh in on whether fifth year wrestlers are good because of the experience or bad because of the grind. Or maybe somewhere in between. While I did not have the data until recently to make an informed statement, I do now.
How Big is the Pile?
Using NCAA tournament results from 1969 - 2025 I identified 990 wrestlers who participated in either four or five tournaments AND scored in at least three tournaments - 964 four tournament wrestlers and 26 five tournament wrestlers. Then I examined their career trajectories using total NCAA tournament points scored by year.
The numbers of wrestlers with long tournament careers have been steadily growing by the decade. From an average of ~9 per year in the 1970's it has grown to over 31 per year so far this decade
But Do They Get Better At Wrestling?
In general, the answer is a resounding yes. The four tournament guys progress from winning a match or two as freshmen to making the podium as seniors. The five tournament guys came out of the shoot as low AA’s before reverting a bit to blood round guys as sophomores but then rallying over their next three tournaments to put up double digits.
Is There More Behind the Headline Numbers?
I am glad you asked. I had the thought that maybe there was a difference between the experience of wrestlers who spent their entire career with a single school vs those who wrestled for more than one school at the NCAA tournament.
Turns out there is a difference. While transfers in the four tournament group generally did a little worse than non-transfers, in the five tournament group transfers outperformed non-transfers in years two, three and four. After ramping up each year the five tournament transfer athletes had a bit of reversion in year five but still maintaining an AA level of performance.
One caveat: I am not using the word transfer correctly here. It is possible to be a transfer and still wrestle at the tournament for a single school. But combing through that list was too hard so I did not do it.
Trivia Time
Among the five tournament wrestlers, three had increased their point production for the first four years. But only one of those three was able to keep the streak alive.
Can you name the only wrestler to participate in five tournaments and increase his scoring output each time?
