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Fixing the Seeding Algorithm

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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,484
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I have complained long and loud about the problem. Now it is time to attempt to be part of the solution.

I think there are three easy, common sense adjustments that can be made right away, and a fourth to think about.
  1. Make H2H H2H. Drop (vs. field) as it is nonsensical. This solves two major problems. It removes a duplication in the formula, and it restores the single most important element to the seeding process. It also removes a potential gaming strategy that rewards teams for not using their starters in a conference dual.
  2. Switch RPI and CR weightings. Quality wins (matches?) is very similar to RPI in that they measure the quality of the opponents faced (though in different ways). There is no need to have them both be weighted the same. Drop one down to 5% (could drop QW or RPI) and bump CR up to 10%.
  3. Start with binary measures, finish with binary measures. The switch from binary comparisons (who had a better record? who won more categories?) to non-binary is bad math. No bad math.
One other thing that was discussed was the coaches' desire to emphasize showing up and wrestling in conference duals. That could be reinforced by tweaking the H2H a bit, too. If we make H2H a two tiered measure where H2H conference dual results are considered first, then if no conference result is available, H2H in non-conference competition is considered.

There is a potential problem with this, though. If two wrestlers meet at National Duals the winner has a dis-incentive to compete in a conference dual against the same wrestler. One way to solve this is to consider the H2H, for conference dual purposes only, at the team level. If Levi Haines beats whoever Iowa sends out at 174 in the dual, he is considered to have beaten whoever they send out at the conference tournament. Far from a perfect solution, but worth consideration.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
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I just took a look at the seeds with regard to H2H.
  • There are 21 instances where a wrestler lost the H2H to the wrestler seeded one spot below him.
  • Only 141 had zero such instances.
  • 174 had four such instances (#1Minto/#2Haines, #3Kennedy/#4Mantanona, #4Mantanona/#5Kharchla, #10Pinto/#11Enright)
  • 157, 165, and 285 had three such instances each.
  • While I did not keep count, much more often than not, the higher seeded wrestler also won the H2H.
 
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blcoach80

All-Conference
Feb 24, 2018
221
1,056
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Wrestleknownothing said:
I have complained long and loud about the problem. Now it is time to attempt to be part of the solution.

I think there are three easy, common sense adjustments that can be made right away, and a fourth to think about.
  1. Make H2H H2H. Drop (vs. field) as it is nonsensical. This solves two major problems. It removes a duplication in the formula, and it restores the single most important element to the seeding process. It also removes a potential gaming strategy that rewards teams for not using their starters in a conference dual.
  2. Switch RPI and CR weightings. Quality wins (matches?) is very similar to RPI in that they measure the quality of the opponents faced (though in different ways). There is no need to have them both be weighted the same. Drop one down to 5% (could drop QW or RPI) and bump CR up to 10%.
  3. Start with binary measures, finish with binary measures. The switch from binary comparisons (who had a better record? who won more categories?) to non-binary is bad math. No bad math.
One other thing that was discussed was the coaches' desire to emphasize showing up and wrestling in conference duals. That could be reinforced by tweaking the H2H a bit, too. If we make H2H a two tiered measure where H2H conference dual results are considered first, then if no conference result is available, H2H in non-conference competition is considered.

There is a potential problem with this, though. If two wrestlers meet at National Duals the winner has a dis-incentive to compete in a conference dual against the same wrestler. One way to solve this is to consider the H2H, for conference dual purposes only, at the team level. If Levi Haines beats whoever Iowa sends out at 174 in the dual, he is considered to have beaten whoever they send out at the conference tournament. Far from a perfect solution, but worth consideration.
Click to expand...
I actually really like your idea for the H2H in conference duals. Great way to prevent ducking as if your backup loses your starter pays the price come tournament time. Would be great for us fans to actually get to see more of the must see matches during the season that never seem to materialize lately.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
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In the 21 instances mentioned above:

Minnesota gained the most with 4 wrestlers seeded one spot above the wrestler the lost to H2H (to 1 in the other direction).
Rutgers was next with 3 such favorable situations (to 1 in the other direction).
Michigan State had 2 such favorable situations.
Northwestern had net 1 favorable situation.
Iowa, and Nebraska had 2 of each.
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin had a net 1 negative situation.
Penn State had 2 negative situations (0 favorable).
Maryland was unaffected.
 
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WahlbergTheGreat

WahlbergTheGreat

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Jul 2, 2025
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WillieTheBrain said:
kinda interesting that they didn't change much in coaches meeting.

the big thing now is....how will the change the formula going forward. probably won't know till this summer.
Click to expand...
Do you think they’ll just go back to coaches seeding it?
How was surgery? What sort of pain pills are we working with? Gotta know if we can trust that you’re in your right mind the next week or so 😆
 
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HawkAlum2002

Senior
Oct 18, 2017
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WillieTheBrain said:
kinda interesting that they didn't change much in coaches meeting.

the big thing now is....how will the change the formula going forward. probably won't know till this summer.
Click to expand...

I think that 15 point rule probably just didn't come into play very much, makes it even harder to fix pretty glaring errors when you are hamstrung with extra rules like that.
 
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WahlbergTheGreat

WahlbergTheGreat

Junior
Jul 2, 2025
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HawkAlum2002 said:
I think that 15 point rule probably just didn't come into play very much, makes it even harder to fix pretty glaring errors when you are hamstrung with extra rules like that.
Click to expand...
With the high number of wonky seeds, I also wonder if sometimes coaches thought better of fighting to change a seed when it might not make the path any easier.
 
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WillieTheBrain

All-Conference
Jun 29, 2025
187
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WahlbergTheGreat said:
Do you think they’ll just go back to coaches seeding it?
How was surgery? What sort of pain pills are we working with? Gotta know if we can trust that you’re in your right mind the next week or so 😆
Click to expand...
too early to tell lol. they put two nerve blockers in so my leg is entirely numb. im still groggy as hell though from the sedative.

there was 3 broken bones in there but when they opened it up they determined that only 2 of th 3 needed screws/plates
 
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Sir Pin Alot

Senior
Jun 25, 2025
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WillieTheBrain said:
too early to tell lol. they put two nerve blockers in so my leg is entirely numb. im still groggy as hell though from the sedative.

there was 3 broken bones in there but when they opened it up they determined that only 2 of th 3 needed screws/plates
Click to expand...
I told you not to kick Basch in the @SS so hard...but no one ever listens to me...
 
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