+/- for the Mauling of Minnesota

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	Min Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Audige	35	72	56	+16	+5.8	+21.8
Verhoeven	15	38	23	+15	+1.4	+16.4
Buie	37	75	59	+16	-1.1	+14.9
Berry	25	49	34	+15	-5.4	+9.6
Nicholson	14	27	17	+10	-2.5	+7.5
Barnhizer	30	65	51	+14	-7.3	+6.7
Beran	27	45	47	-2	+6.7	+4.7
Martinelli	11	19	18	+1	+2.3	+3.3

The Wildcats toyed with the Gophers as expected. Chase Audige had easily his best offensive performance (in Big Ten play) against the overmatched Minnesotans.
With the Gophers starting center (Dawson Garica) unable to play, the talent disparity was so significant that it is difficult to draw any real conclusions about individual play, but it can't be denied that Tydus Verhoeven had a nice game overall. Similarly, Nick Martinelli looked good enough to possibly start for Minnesota and gained valuable experience.

Robbie Beran's box score looks fine (5 of 7 from the floor, 3 of 4 from distance) but he was -2 overall, courtesy of the recently ballyhooed "small ball" lineup, featuring Beran at the 5 and Barnhizer at the 4. That approach got beat up 21-13 in 9 minutes of action, although Beran played well individually.

NU had two significant runs in the first half. Verhoeven, Barnhizer, Buie, Berry and Audige went on a 10-2 run after the first tv timeout.
When Nicholson, Barnhizer, Buie, Berry and Audige were teamed with 6:41 to play in the first half, the Widcats went on a 9-0 run to take a 36-18 lead.
For the game, Buie, Audige, Berry and Barnhizer (with either of our true centers) smashed the Gophers 25-7 in a mere 7 minutes of play.

Things will be significantly more difficult at Iowa.

 

[Hungry Jack]

How does that player adjustment work? Is it like the positional adjustment in fWAR in baseball? I get the sense that's not quite it but I am bewildered as how to those numbers come about.

And what was the issue with Beran at 5? I remember a few stretches where Minny was scoring easily inside on some nifty ball movement. But much of that seemed to be in near-garbage time as the game was decided at halftime.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

How does that player adjustment work? Is it like the positional adjustment in fWAR in baseball? I get the sense that's not quite it but I am bewildered as how to those numbers come about.

And what was the issue with Beran at 5? I remember a few stretches where Minny was scoring easily inside on some nifty ball movement. But much of that seemed to be in near-garbage time as the game was decided at halftime.

You are definitely right that the small ball lineup with Beran at the 5 was playing mainly in garbage time.
Nicholson went to the bench with 10 minutes left in the game, NU leading 64-43. It was really obvious that Minnesota was not going to rally. I'm not sure why we did this, but Collins played Buie and Audige until there was a minute left. Berry played 7 of those 9 minutes too. Beran and Barnhizer were out there from 8:48 to 1:54. We got outscored 14-8 in that stretch. (A friend of mine said "yeah Collins is basically telling Buie and Audige to pad their stats").

As far as the Player Adjustments, they are similar to an advanced stat called BPM (Box Plus Minus) where points are awarded or subtracted based on shooting, free throws, rebounds, turnovers, steals and all those traditional stats.

The idea is that "Raw +/-" tells you how the team did when each guy was in the game. The Player Adjust tells you if the player was outperforming or underperforming relative to the guys he was on the floor with.

 

[Catreporter]

Buie and Audige were probably still in there until very late because we don't have any great ballhandlers besides them and Minnesota was pressing. Can't have a bunch of turnovers leading to a run. That's the only way they could have put that game in any jeopardy. Gophers had a hot Indiana team in trouble until the final minute.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Buie and Audige were probably still in there until very late because we don't have any great ballhandlers besides them and Minnesota was pressing. Can't have a bunch of turnovers leading to a run. That's the only way they could have put that game in any jeopardy. Gophers had a hot Indiana team in trouble until the final minute.

I always think of those scenarios (big lead, opponent playing bench guys) as learning opportunities and a chance to rest the starters. With Roper out we cannot afford an injury to Berry or Audige or Buie. Really we can't afford an injury to anybody!

Personally I don't think of Audige as a great ballhandler, but thats besides the point. I would have had Martinelli out there for sure (he did play a couple minutes) but I probably would have sat Buie and tried to run the offense, learning if Berry or Barnhizer or even Dixon could get the ball up the floor and run the offense if Buie is actually unavailable.

There was zero chance we'd lose that lead, but the coaches need to have plans B, C and D for all possibilities. Blowouts are a away to prepare.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

I always think of those scenarios (big lead, opponent playing bench guys) as learning opportunities and a chance to rest the starters. With Roper out we cannot afford an injury to Berry or Audige or Buie. Really we can't afford an injury to anybody!

Personally I don't think of Audige as a great ballhandler, but thats besides the point. I would have had Martinelli out there for sure (he did play a couple minutes) but I probably would have sat Buie and tried to run the offense, learning if Berry or Barnhizer or even Dixon could get the ball up the floor and run the offense if Buie is actually unavailable.

There was zero chance we'd lose that lead, but the coaches need to have plans B, C and D for all possibilities. Blowouts are a away to prepare.

Audige a great ball handler, no, but it seems like he and Buie are running things almost all the time and it’s the two of them that stir the drink with the ball in their hands. Feels like a vet guard to play with Berry and MN and a like Sophomore one to grow with Brooks, Martinelli, etc would be great.

Ideally, we could just get Chase and Boo to come back for another year (let’s goooo, Jacob Schmidt), add some depth at wing or big, and bring in a big young class with some guards to get the next generation going.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Audige a great ball handler, no, but it seems like he and Buie are running things almost all the time and it’s the two of them that stir the drink with the ball in their hands. Feels like a vet guard to play with Berry and MN and a like Sophomore one to grow with Brooks, Martinelli, etc would be great.

Ideally, we could just get Chase and Boo to come back for another year (let’s goooo, Jacob Schmidt), add some depth at wing or big, and bring in a big young class with some guards to get the next generation going.

People (for whatever reason) seem to want to scoff at the idea that Nicholson, Roper, Berry, Barnhizer, Hunger and Martinelli are Big Ten players who provide NU with a solid core for the next couple years.

The glaring problem is no point guard. If Buie comes back, then we're in reasonable shape for next year, with any kind of contribution from the incoming freshmen or a solid grad transfer or two. Northwestern should be near the top of the heap for grad transfers...

 

[Hungry Jack]

Audige a great ball handler, no, but it seems like he and Buie are running things almost all the time and it’s the two of them that stir the drink with the ball in their hands. Feels like a vet guard to play with Berry and MN and a like Sophomore one to grow with Brooks, Martinelli, etc would be great.

Ideally, we could just get Chase and Boo to come back for another year (let’s goooo, Jacob Schmidt), add some depth at wing or big, and bring in a big young class with some guards to get the next generation going.

TrueNU only deals in the public service arena. High paying commercial NIL deals would probably come through Altius.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

TrueNU only deals in the public service arena. High paying commercial NIL deals would probably come through Altius.

Given Boo and Chase’s pro hopes, we probably don’t need massive cash, just enough to wet their whistle sticking around. That can go through True NU

 

[AdamOnFirst]

People (for whatever reason) seem to want to scoff at the idea that Nicholson, Roper, Berry, Barnhizer, Hunger and Martinelli are Big Ten players who provide NU with a solid core for the next couple years.

The glaring problem is no point guard. If Buie comes back, then we're in reasonable shape for next year, with any kind of contribution from the incoming freshmen or a solid grad transfer or two. Northwestern should be near the top of the heap for grad transfers...

I think you and I are saying the same thing actually. Enough guard play behind the guys you listed and NU could be good again next year, obviously so if we kept both Chase and Buie, and maybe so if we kept one and got a good replacement for the other. That’s why at the moment I prioritize keeping them and looking at guards who can compensate for a loss there.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I think Ty Berry and Barney have pretty good handles. I don't know about Roper, but his offensive instincts scare me a bit (like Chase in his early days). But a true point guard and a shooter like Matthew Mayer (IL) or Spencer (RU) would really solidify next year's version in the absence of Chase and Boo.

 

[ballerog711]

Berry has the potential to be that shooter. Ball should move more next year.

Barney can handle the ball and the freshmen can fill in.